Kitzy

Arnaldi +1.5 Sets -125 1U Arnaldi +220 0.5U I’ll bite. De Minaur’s lack of any real firepower/weapons gets most exposed on slow clay— he doesn’t have the easy power to hit through the heavy conditions so he has to swing super hard, which leads to errors. He’s been a massive overachiever these last few seasons and his results this year post-Rotterdam are finally starting to align more with his talent level Arnaldi has finally started to find some form after a dreadful start to the season that’s seen him shockingly fall out of the Top 100, winning a Challenger in Cagliari last week and backing that up with a solid win over Munar on Wednesday. He has played a fair amount of tennis lately, and De Minaur is a nightmare opponent to play with heavy legs, but with the day off I don’t think fatigue should be much of a concern The Italian’s a very streaky player who could easily hit himself out of the match against a brick wall like ADM in slow conditions, but this match should be largely on his racket. It also helps that he’ll have some home crowd support behind him, although I would’ve preferred for this match to be later in the day to really reap the benefits of that. We can see Arnaldi’s level fluctuate from unplayable to error machine from game to game, and that’s why I opted for set spread over game spread here. In the slow conditions where easy holds will be hard to come by I think there’s a better chance of Arnaldi winning a set but imploding in one or both of the other two and losing by a lopsided scoreline than there is of him keeping the margin within 3 games in a straight set loss, especially against a guy like De Minaur who won’t ease up or take any games off even with a sizable lead in a set There’s a super wide range of outcomes in this match— really no scoreline would surprise me. Still, I think the odds here are a tad wide and Arnaldi is worth a small try

Matt Olson or Drake Baldwin? 🤔

KHAMZAT KICKS SEAN