@LandoInvests @IREN_Ltd When it goes…. It will move fast.
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Red Dot Returns
453 posts
Red Dot Returns
@RedDotReturnsX
Husband, Father, Options seller, investor, technical analyzer, mentor, and friend. At the crossroads of TA and 2A.
Bergabung Ekim 2024
100 Mengikuti239 Pengikut
IREN: Frustration, Struggle, but Hope?
It's June 17:
> NBIS is nearly at $300/share (71B MC)
> CRWV is at $115/share (63B MC)
> Neoclouds running, and yet no deal for IREN
> Sentiment on X is actively souring, with investors openly questioning @IREN_Ltd
> Execution struggles, missed earnings, ATM dilution?
Looking at the surface, it feels like we made the wrong choice. IREN is lagging its peers while global compute demand sits at all-time highs. Management is diluting shareholders through convertible note offerings and ATM programs, all while staying relatively quiet on the PR front.
These are real struggles, and I am openly admitting to them. But does any of this change my core thesis on IREN or my view on management’s long-term execution?
Not in the slightest.
The opportunity cost of holding IREN over the past few months has been incredibly painful. But looking forward, the risk-to-reward ratio at the current price is heavily skewed in IREN's favor.
IREN in May/June:
May 1, 2026 – Energized Sweetwater 1: Grid-connected a massive 1.4GW substation facility
May 5, 2026 – Acquired Mirantis ($625M): Bought an enterprise cloud infrastructure and Kubernetes powerhouse to build a native software layer for their compute stack.
May 7, 2026 – The NVIDIA "Trifecta" Partnership: Secured a 5-year, $3.4 billion contract providing NVIDIA with managed cloud services using Blackwell GPUs, while granting NVIDIA options to buy up to 30 million shares at a fixed $70/share.
May 7, 2026 – Acquired Nostrum Group: 490MW of grid-connected capacity in Spain, establishing an immediate foothold in Europe.
May 11–14, 2026 – Raised $3.0B via Convertible Notes: Closed a private placement of 1.00% convertible notes due 2033. It hit the absolute $3.0B hard-cap due to overwhelming institutional demand and was paired with capped calls to mitigate dilution.
May 18, 2026 – Acquired Awaken Agency: Brought their long-standing external creative and media agency in-house to spearhead a global enterprise rebrand. (very fond of this)
May 26, 2026 – Targeted $4.4B ARR: Formally projected hitting an Annual Run-Rate Revenue target of $4.4 billion driven by upcoming Blackwell cluster deployments.
June 1, 2026 – Secured $3.65B GPU Financing: Closed an investment-grade, asset-backed facility specifically tailored to buy chips, while partnering with BE Networks to build NVIDIA DSX Air-architected "AI Factories."
June 3, 2026 – Announced Australian Data Center Campus: Signed a transmission connection agreement to back a planned 800MW mega-campus in South Australia.
Notes: Signed on as a Headline Sponsor for the massive RAISE Summit 2026 in Paris, while maintaining a 2-month rolling stock price average of $53.25.
The price action has been brutal, and the stock has mostly just consolidated. But look at what you are actually buying right now at a ~$20B valuation: 5.8 GW of secured power and only 2 major contracts locked in, with the NVIDIA contract priced out at current price. More contracts are inevitably coming in the next 1 to 5 months.
IREN did the hardest thing first: they went out and secured the power early. They bought Mirantis for software brains, diversified globally, and are networking aggressively with institutions and hyper-scalers.
I don’t have the rock-bottom cost basis that some early bulls on this platform have, and I’m not a TA wizard or professional analyst. I’m just a guy looking at a massive disconnect between real-world fundamentals and a stuck stock price. These mega-infrastructure transitions take time.
If you want a conservative roadmap for what to expect through July and August, here it is:
> On @FransBakker9812 X spaces, @mikealfred recently reiterated that IREN is on the absolute right track and will continue to catch people off guard with upcoming milestones.
> The RAISE Summit (July 8-9) is the most elite C-level AI conference in Europe, with an audience made up of nearly 80% executives. This is a monumental stage for @danroberts0101 to close European enterprise pipelines.
> I expect a major new contract announcement to drop either immediately before the Paris Summit or shortly after, by late August at the latest.
> Next earnings need to show the initial fruits of the pivot, with a massive ramp in realized AI revenue and clear operational beats to prove execution.
The last two months were entirely about securing the land, the power, and the multi-billion dollar financing. The next two months are when the actual commercial deals happen.
Trust the process. Trust your gut. Long $IREN.
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@YodaStockInvest $NOW will use AI to expand margins and deliver more customized solutions. It’s a generational opportunity and a lesson in the market mispricing a company on irrational fear alone.
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I'm thinking about selling part of my $AMD at >$500 to buy $NOW at $100.
I love moving to out of favor stocks with also great fundamentals until they are hyped again and then repeat. That's how I built my wealth at a young age.
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@MarkTheLaird $ONDS and $IREN both giving me these vibes.
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I'm transparent.
There have been cracks in my $IREN conviction for some time.
The assets have kept me around.
But doubts continue to climb as no deals are announced when $IREN has the most of what hyperscalers need.
Makes me feel customers prefer $IREN's competitors.
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He forgot to tag me but I forgive him. This is the same process I went through when I first stumbled on $AMPG - it started as a quick flip and turned into a long term thesis for me.
$TRT might be next on my list.
I’ve developed a passion for investing 10-20% of my portfolio into these hidden gems and overlooked businesses that have long term ability to become something great.
ChinoAleman@chinoalemano
When I first bought $AMPG, I didn't even understand the business. It was at $3.6. Just a swing trade. Nothing more. I sold the whole thing at $4.5. Took my little profit and moved on. And that could have been the end of the story. But then I did something simple: I actually researched it. I read the filings. I understood what this company really was. The next multi-billion company in the making. The only American 64T64R AI-RAN radio. Deployed at a Tier-1 carrier. Defense. Quantum. Space. So I bought back in at $4.73. Then $4.55. Then I went all in at $5.2. Then trimmed some at $6.8. Then held until $9. Because I finally saw it for what it is: a billion company in the making. The boring physical layer under a megatrend, before the market wakes up. And everyone criticized me. Everyone said it had already run too much. They said it at $6. They said it at $6.5. They said it at $7. Here's what they were all missing. When you buy a business, the entry price is not the thesis. The fundamentals are. A great company "looks expensive" the entire way up, right until everyone realizes it was cheap. That's the whole lesson. And it's why doing your own research is everything. Because if I hadn't done the work, I would have sold at $4.5 and never looked back. I'd have missed all of it, over a chart I didn't understand attached to a business I never bothered to learn. And honestly? That's the part I love. There are so many great companies out there still waiting to be found. My goal is to keep finding them. Because that's my passion. I love the research. I love pulling the thread nobody else bothered to pull. I love understanding a business so well that the price stops scaring me. I've spent days and nights without sleep digging into this company. Reading, cross-checking, connecting dots. And in between, doing the part that actually matters: cheering the community on, hyping up the group, sharing what I find, laughing with people, building something that genuinely feels like family. That feeling, of doing the work and doing it together, is what this is all about for me. And the best part is I'm not doing it alone anymore. We've built a real community around $AMPG. People like @olyth_terminal, @LilyFunds, @EhrmantrautCap_, @rk8215, @barbell_ideas and so many more like @DVLT146025, @PSInvestor, @PepInvestStocks and @calm_svg . Sorry if I'm missing anyone. People who actually do the work, share it openly, and make each other sharper. That's rare, and I'm grateful for it. Thank you, genuinely, for all of it. 🙏 I hold a position in $AMPG. I'll keep following it closely. I will keep updating on relevant news, just don't want to be in the middle of it. I'm not alone anymore. Thank you AMPG gang. 👊 This is a multi-billion company in the making. Higher we go. In Fawad we trust. Edge AI. And in the meantime, I'll do what I love most: keep digging, keep learning, and keep hunting for the next great company hiding in plain sight. Onto the next thread to pull. 📡 Not financial advice. I'm long $AMPG. DYOR.
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@FinanceLancelot I don’t believe it’s time yet…. Will likely close above $200 but soon I agree.
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SpaceX $SPCX has fallen to $196 as the selloff accelerates.
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
SpaceX $SPCX update
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@chinoalemano You’ll see 😉
Their behind the meter approach to solving the energy strain on the local residents is brilliant and highly scalable. You will love this company.
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Why would anyone buy $SLNH if they can buy $DGXX instead?
I will do a deep dive about Soluna soon.
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I’m not betting against $AMPG…. You shouldn’t either. Zoom out and play the long game. Institutional ownership continues to increase and whale flow is strong. What do they know that you don’t?
This a meaningful company that checks all of the boxes. The rest of the market hasn’t figured that out yet.
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@amitisinvesting I agree with him long term but short term the market will reward the theme and re-rate everything for the upcoming OpenAI IPO.
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Jim Chanos is short the neoclouds.
"It gets back to the point that we've made to clients that anybody that's just a middleman in this chain, like the data center guys are either as rights or equipment leasing companies should never trade at higher multiples than the company that controls their supply."
$CRWV $NBIS $IREN
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The most well written and complete article on “who” $AMPG is and why you should care…. Too often investors focus too much on price action and not on the long term story that’s unfolding underneath it.
This is one of my favorite critical AI infrastructure stocks that hides on the edge.
ChinoAleman@chinoalemano
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The most well written and complete article on “who” $AMPG is and why you should care…. Too often investors focus too much on price action and not on the long term story that’s unfolding underneath it.
This is one of my favorite critical AI infrastructure stocks that hides on the edge.
ChinoAleman@chinoalemano
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@BoBbyPleWniaK The market isn’t necessarily telling us it’s undervalued. By design, supply remains extremely limited while index funds accumulate for QQQ inclusion. It’s a supply bottleneck not value driven demand.
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The market is telling $SPCX that they grossly undervalued the IPO. If people are this excited to buy over 170, why were the IPO shares issued at 135?
I don’t think the executives at SpaceX are this generous. It seems fishy. If Elon truly believes in $1 trillion revenue by 2030, why discount the IPO shares? I’m not buying it. It doesn’t pass my bullshit meter.
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@FinanceLancelot Correlation isn’t causation and often these patterns get broken. Likely directionally correct but timing unlikely to align.
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@FinanceLancelot It’s a sound theory…. I’m a permabull and even I can side with this one.
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If Trump knows Bank of Japan and Kevin Warsh are about to crash the stock market with rate decisions this week, I'd pump the market and sign a peace deal too 🤪
SpaceX IPO is done. Mission complete.
Time to blame everyone else for the crisis.
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Red Dot Returns me-retweet
JUST IN: Donald Trump has made peace with $IREN.
Higher we go.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed..." - President Donald J. Trump
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@aleabitoreddit You are absolutely right. I still believe in it but I explain it slightly differently.
I call it the art of studying the past in order to form a hypothesis about the future.
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This is gonna upset a lot of people:
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
Max Williamson@max_williamson
@aleabitoreddit Do you use TA at all or are you 100% bottle neck research?
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@cantonmeow Yet most on X are charting the biggest crash in QQQ history starting Monday
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@elonmusk just accomplished the epitome of the American dream without question.
He proved to every single person in America that the dream is still alive and well…. That anything is still possible with enough consistent effort and a willingness to fail forward.
Not only did he achieve this but he gave 4400 other people that same American dream for helping him accomplish his own.
That’s the America I want to live in.
Common Sense Investor (CSI)@commonsenseplay
Totally disagree with Elizabeth Warren - this is the American dream! Elon just created 4,400 millionaires in a single day. 400 are now worth over $100 million. $TSLA $SPCX Not VCs. Not hedge funds. SpaceX employees - welders, technicians, machinists, even cafeteria staff - because the company paid workers in equity for two decades. A welder who joined at $28/hour in 2015 turned a $10k stock grant into nearly $900k! Another employee passed on a “safe” job at GE, stayed at SpaceX for 12 years, and his shares are now worth $13.5 million!! Software IPOs have made rich engineers for years. This is the first one where the wealth reached the factory and cafeteria floor.
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Red Dot Returns me-retweet
me with the SpaceX cafeteria lady after she becomes a billionaire from the IPO
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Red Dot Returns me-retweet
Everyone who thinks $AMPG is just hype, forgets that $AMPG:
- Trades at 4.4x 2026 revenue ($50m), as per management's guidance. Management guided for $25m for the full year 2025, and that indeed happened. They don't underdeliver.
- Had a gross margin of 48% in Q1, and this gross margin will most likely continue to improve towards 55-60% in the coming years.
- Has revenue in different segments, including O-RAN/5G, quantum, SATCOM/space communications equipment and defense.
- Will most likely grow its revenue at a CAGR of 25-30% (could be more) from now until atleast 2030.
- Has active LOIs and POs from TELUS. We now know thanks to the article shared by @Lonsdale171255 (the-mobile-network.com/2025/09/telus-…) that $AMPG could do atleast $300 million cumulative revenue from here to 2029, from TELUS alone.
The fundamentals check out very well, for a microcap stock that has a market value of less than $220 million. I have seen companies with much worse fundamentals trade above $1 billion market cap.
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