stack general

@RealRickRule We live in a democracy so I imagine he is referring to 90% of the population willing to compromise on ONLY 5% expropriation

Is? Whose?

@LukeGromen They are technically correct. It will be in 2026

US intelligence assessment admits China is not planning a 2027 Taiwan invasion, contrary to the assertions of numerous China hawks. h/t PA

@potassium_phd Smart man. If you have been doing this long enough you know liquidity crunch playbook is “sell off then soar”

@StackGeneral Bought more silver, gold, and platinum this morning. For the good of the order 🫡

Markets have chosen to exacerbate shortages in war time rather than price reflect reality. Send it back to the 40s if they can, price action is anyone’s guess. I, for one, will not be capitulating and selling the lows. I decided to stop saving in dollars a long time ago.

@StealthQE4 Rates have to come down or the USA can’t finance its massive deficits . It’s guaranteed to come down or America can’t mask its bankruptcy

People confusingly think if inflation goes up so does gold. Gold actually fluctuates more with interest rates. If rates rise like we have now it crushes gold and commodities. Money tightens. Less liquidity.

@DesoGames The fact oil is still under $100is incredible . Not for long

Think we're well within the territory where all the oil and gas infrastructure of the region are "valid targets". Oil and gas are going to be *structurally* higher priced. Goodbye western economy reliant on cheap energy and goods for growth.

@DarioCpx liquidity crunch time. This is the time to buy not hedge

Dear followers, for full transparency, please note that I just hedged my physical gold and silver holdings. There is something very wicked in the market at the moment, completely disconnected from logic (war/geopolitical risk) and fundamentals. ⚠️My gut feeling tells me it might be a liquidity crisis in the Middle East banking system due to all those who left or are still trying to leave the area bringing all the liquid assets out with them at the same time, when oil revenues aren't coming in, hence USD liquidity inflows. I will stand ready to increase my holdings in case of a sharp drawdown.

@great_martis Bitcoin is bad but the dollar is worse

Bitcoin

@BerwickJeff Jeff, how come the market response has been so tepid thus far? Oil is only $95 a barrel. It was $150 when hurricane Katrina hit nearly 20 years ago

Having the Strait of Hormuz closed for even just two weeks will have repercussions that will affect all markets dramatically for years to come. If it continues for another week or two more we will see mass chaos in the markets. Your government registered financial advisor will have no clue how to protect yourself and profit from what is coming. But The Dollar Vigilante newsletter was built for this and you can even get access to it for a free trial right now!

@MarioNawfal Serious question: why do you say “we never attacked” when you are Lebanese who migrated to Australia and then ended up in Malaysia . Do you consider yourself American ?

Glenn Greenwald told me something disturbing today: The U.S. has been in a perpetual state of wars This statement stuck in my mind, and as I gave it more thought, I realized not only is he right, but the U.S. was the one to initiate all these wars There has been NO country that has declared war or preemptively attacked the U.S. since WW2. And this shouldn’t be surprising. The U.S. has been and still is by far the most formidable military. Yet, in that same period, the U.S. has been involved in over 20 military actions, causing a total 5-10 million deaths. This includes: - Korean War (1950–1953): ~2–3 million deaths (including ~36,500 US) - Vietnam War (1955/1965–1975): ~1–3 million deaths (including ~58,200 US) - Gulf War (1990–1991): ~25,000–50,000 deaths (including ~300 US) - War in Afghanistan (2001–2021): ~150,000–240,000 direct deaths (millions of indirect deaths; including ~2,400 US) - Iraq War (2003–2011): ~200,000–1 million+ deaths (including ~4,500 US) - Other notable mentions: Kosovo War (1999), Libya (2011), ISIS (2014–present), invasions like Grenada (1983), Panama (1989) And now the ‘military action’ in Iran These wars not only failed to improve America’s security, they created new enemies while also skyrocketing the national debt. That debt is what many economists worry could lead to the fall of the American Empire So you gotta wonder. Why? What special interest groups hijacked the American system to such an extent to force the country into these wars for so many decades? Note: The above does not include 911 as it was not commited by a nation state. Also I excluded North Korea's 1968 USS Pueblo seizure, which resulted in 1 American death. Ironically, we never attacked or declared war on North Korea after this incident. I guess they didn't have enough oil or minerals.

@Nostre_damus They will be provided with energy from the USA 🇺🇸

>one third of Taiwan's imported LNG comes from Qatar >over 50% of electricity generation comes from LNG what happens to the semiconductor industry when there are power outages?

@RealRickRule But what happens when this trend consumes the entire USA? And what if the USA institutes capital controls that makes it costly or impossible to move capital outside of the country?

surprise, money is mobile, and goes where it is well treated

@KennethLFisher In an extreme scenario like this involving the world reserve currency, i would imagine stocks will maintain purchasing power but there are better asset classes to protect oneself.

@StackGeneral Have stocks through history done better or worse when deficits grow?

What is the probability of a recession in 2026? Here’s my take.

@goldseek Looks like it’s copper, aluminum, zinc and tin. The shortage of physical aluminum is particularly challenging right now.

@RealRickRule Still can’t believe you sold 80% of your physical silver holdings

Whare is California on this list? Any guess as to why?

@maneco1964 “Coalition of the unwilling”

Oil opens up a couple of bucks. So much for Trump's coalition.

@bitterdraught Market crash before final printing round

My weekend listening podcasts so far all seem to think catastrophic market reactions to the war are imminent. Are other people noticing this? I've long since given up trying to time the end game triggers because credit just kept being found to keep the music going. but given how large private credit firms are blowing up now, I think the risk of contagion was already extremely high and physically blowing up a decent portion of the global oil market might be just the spark needed to send credit into a tailspin.

@RealJohnGaltFla @DarioCpx Thanks. I’m not suggesting wage and price caps but that the USA would retain all the energy it produces for its domestic market to keep prices low at home

@StackGeneral @DarioCpx Then we're discussing price and wage caps just like Nixon imposed. A disaster for the capitalist system and validation of the stagflation threat many of us have warned about for over a year.

Aluminium shortages incoming 🎯 🫡

@nickysquickie @RealJohnGaltFla @DarioCpx Can you clarify ? It’s my understanding that America is now a net exporter of energy (it produces more than it consumes)

@StackGeneral @RealJohnGaltFla @DarioCpx 1. America cannot ban the export of energy it still needs to import. 2. Were still a ways out from building the infrastructure needed to on-shore manufacturing.

@RealJohnGaltFla @DarioCpx What if America bans the export of its energy and uses this opportunity to onshore manufacturing?

Going into this war there was this belief that the US was self-sufficient regarding energy. Unfortunately that's only partially true. As prices are bid up in the global marketplace it becomes more profitable to sell to overseas markets forcing domestic prices to rocket higher. The entire theory behind resourcing or becoming self-sufficient on our own resources including mining, ag, etc. is based on cheap energy. Kick that leg out of the stool and it falls immediately.