Tribuna Silvestre

Iran Update/My Opinion On Where It Is All Going: After 6 weeks of non stop bombing of Iran by combined Israeli and American strikes conducing tens of thousands of Sorties, significant damage has been done to the Iranian military in particular its air defence capabilities, airforce and navy. Negotiations have appeared fruitless despite a recent ceasefire due to the incompatibility of two approaches Iran fundamentally is continuing to not give up nuclear enrichment and is now wanting full control over the strait of Hormuz to charge hundreds of billions in shipping fees to fund its military expansionism, I do not see diplomatic solutions working, and see this conflict restarting pretty quickly. Militarily Iran maintains Its ballistic missile launcher capacities only have being limited by half, the rest have been buried in deep underground complexes and likely are able to be recovered with Iran still posing a threat to the Gulf with remaining capabilities. In terms of its nuclear programme, this is unfortunately still in tact with a lot of enriched uranium and other enriching sites being hidden deep underground at buried facilities, hard to reach with current munitions available, strikes did manage to assassinate more high level scientists and take out facilities that were involved in enriching uranium but on this side more is too be done. Irans command and control structure initially severely damaged by precision strikes has largely kept intact due to its decentralised nature, Iran is able to continue firing back despite not direct command being available. Iran has also been able to maintain control over the strait of Hormuz mainly by launching sea based strike drones and shore launched shoot and scoot anti ship missile capacity. Iran has used the recent ceasefire to transfer more manpower and capability to the shores surrounding the straits to better hold it. Interestingly Iranian key island hubs like Kharg Island have been severely reinforced in anticipation of a US ground raid, but these defences were severely softened up by a large row of target airstrikes. US forces continue to build massive capacity in the region, including bringing an additional carrier strike group which has reached the med making that three in the region as well as massively building up ground troops, transferring thousands of marines, artillery soldiers, this does suggest that preparations are being made to invade islands around the strait of Hormuz. Notably over the last few days an uptick in military cargo flights to the Middle East has occurred as well as a renewed arming of strategic bombers which are stationed in RAF FAIRFORD in Britain with tankers damaged in the Middle East being rotated out for undamaged ones from bases on the US Mainland. Finally the US navy is moving to secure the strait of Hormuz by blockading Iranian exports, this will be done by frigates and destroyers like actively preventing ships moving from Iranian ports, attempting to economically strangle Iran, if this does not work I think group operations will follow. US navy destroyers yesterday tested this in practise by conducting freedom of navigation runs around the strait likely looking for mines, the conclusion was likely at the moment the strait is just too dangerous to secure actively with ships, much easier would it be to wait for them to leave to seize or board them. MY OPINION: I just simply do not see a diplomatic resolution to this conflict at this stage, Iran believes it has the upper hand with its renewed control of the strait of Hormuz it fundamentally is now denying to give up the nuclear weapons and its ballistic programme that started the war in the first place despite all teh strikes on it. The US simply cannot walk away despite its military victories clearly it would not have achieved any of its strategic objectives, this leads me to believe the war will start again with the goal of at least opening the strait of Hormuz. First the US will strike Iranian energy, in a way to get them to capitulate to non nuclear proliferation, if that does not work they will start interdicting ships, if that does not work I think they will try to seize Kharg Island and maybe other islands around the strait of Hormuz, unfortunately to me diplomacy is Cleary out the window, positions are just way to far away, especially with the new extreme leadership. Washington has to sell a victory to its domestic audience, walking away now would be a fundamental failure, although in some ways it may be a better option considering Iran could drag this war on for months affecting mid term elections in America even. I only see escalation moving forward, I hope I am wrong. WM

🚨 The negotiations in Islamabad were never meant to succeed, they were meant to prove that they couldn’t. From the start, intelligence from the CIA and Mossad showed the divide with the Islamic Republic of Iran was not negotiable. This was not a gap to close, but a clash of fundamentals tied to the regime’s survival. The 21-hour talks only confirmed it. Long sessions, shifting positions, and no movement on core issues. The gap became clearer, not smaller. Sending JD Vance was part of the strategy. As someone skeptical of war, sitting across the table and seeing it firsthand removes the argument that better diplomacy could have worked. He said it plainly afterward. There were real discussions, but no agreement, and that is worse for Iran than for the United States. This was not a failed negotiation. It was confirmation that no real deal was ever possible.