Michael Cox

The 2024 version of The Mixer is out now. The most comprehensive account of the Premier League’s on-pitch development over its first 32 years. Amazon link ⬇️ amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/000870…

lovely to see Leon Goretzka starting out wide and getting to the ball first #pythagoras

Great to see Arda Guler not merely positioning himself out there, but doing it sneakily. For me, better than scoring from 70 yards. x.com/footballontnt/…

Here's an investigation into a crucial question: why don’t players ever position themselves to the side of the box* at penalties? Here's a case for it being a worthwhile tactic, inspired by Corinthians Feminino and, er, Pythagoras' theorem. nytimes.com/athletic/70699…

I found this conversation with @OUFCOfficial's Will Vaulks incredibly moving and inspiring: ‘My grandads took their own lives – I want to save other families from what we went through’ independent.co.uk/sport/football…

@FrankCastleMilk @EmmetGates Yes as I mentioned in the next tweet

@Zonal_Marking @EmmetGates But the year after those, they had 3 teams in the semis. Without having like 6 teams in the tournaments btw.

Serie A got pilloried a few weeks back — and rightly so — for awful performances in Europe. But when it was the undisputed best league in the world in the 80s, 90s and early '00s, it never produced a series of results like the Premier League has done in the last week. Never.

@leftsidedprob @EmmetGates I agree. They play bad football and they’re being found out. That said this was largely true of Italy in 2001

@Zonal_Marking @EmmetGates The PL thing is a bit more interesting, as I hope it’s an ideological failing, the idea that it’s impossible to beat/score against Chelsea/Newcastle etc without resorting to set pieces and terrible football…

@RichDPike89 @EmmetGates Yes! There was a massive soul-searching period. I don’t think Italy has ever truly recovered collectively tbh

@Zonal_Marking @EmmetGates Yep i remember that brief period being bad for Italian clubs in the Champions League. Inter infamously lost to Helsinborgs in Champions League qualifying and Juve finished bottom of a UCL group in 2000-01

@CiaranFl4n4g4n @EmmetGates No, they had four. And none were in the final eight. People these days underestimate how strange it was that Italian sides just couldn’t compete when they supposedly had the best league

@Zonal_Marking @EmmetGates They also weren't allowed 6 teams in the CL

@EmmetGates Perhaps not, but the PL still has two of the eight QFs. It's nothing close to the incompetence Italian clubs showed towards the end of the period you mention - albeit they bounced back dramatically the next season.

@Zonal_Marking True, but they weren't massacred in the way PL teams have been the last 8 days (from memory at least)

10 seasons at Man City for Guardiola. 5 times they've started the Champions League as favourites. Only 3 times they've reached the semis. 1 European Cup. Considering City's domestic performance during the last decade, it's reasonable to have expected more. nytimes.com/athletic/71270…

@CityFandk I haven't. You are, as so many people on Twitter do, just making up things and then getting annoyed about them.

@Zonal_Marking And it’s still all just a qualified guess. So many factors. There is absolutely no way you can expect a team to win the CL and say it is disappointing if they don’t. Even Real Madrid.

5 gange startet som favorit? Hvem afgør det? Mega svær turnering som kun Real Madrid formår at vinde i flere sæsoner i træk. Bayern har 1 CL på 12 år, der gik 14 år fra Liverpool vandt i 2005 til de vandt igen. Det er 10 år siden for Barca. Pep tax på denne her.

@NotIMP19 I think all this is acknowledged in the article.

@Zonal_Marking 2019 vs. Tottenham, 2022 vs. RM, and 2024 vs. RM, he deserved to go through (maybe to the final or maybe win it). Loss vs. Lyon is on him. Others are debatable (vs. Liverpool + Monaco). So, don't take the record as is. With a little bit of luck, he would win 1 more at least.

@bozzie59 @tgrdebate They were soundly beaten in 2018. The Spurs defeat was extremely marginal but Spurs were an average side and City were probably the best in Europe.

@Zonal_Marking @tgrdebate I think those matches highlight the point on the uncertainty of the CL. Liverpool in 2018 had something for everyone, bus wrecking, bizarre referee decisions. Spurs 2019 missed pen, controversial goal, last minute offside. Chelsea, COVID, Rudiger’s assault on KDB.

@01fmz @ademir2z @CityFandk You are of course correct. But I'm not sure what this changes about the argument; I've acknowledged that the 'correct' figure is 'probably 2' based on those odds. My argument is more that reaching only three semis is quite bad.

@Zonal_Marking @ademir2z @CityFandk I know, I was arguing that unless you took those odds from an exchange, these markets tend to keep a huge margin so the fair odds are realistically significantly lower than that without any adjustments

@hero_of_sky @_ToddBeane They do. They employ extremely intelligent people and have dedicated systems - specifically to work out the percentage of different outcomes happening! It's very useful, particularly as it can show how bad people's recollections are.

@Zonal_Marking @_ToddBeane Those businesses don't know much about football. You have a weird obsession with bookmakers in the UK.

@tgrdebate @bozzie59 I think he was basically unlucky in his 2nd/3rd seasons. The Real defeat was obviously a bit disastrous. At City I think the big 'overthinking' was the Lyon defeat in 2020. I actually thought his approach for the 2021 final was fair enough

@Zonal_Marking @bozzie59 Pep overthinking big games? While at Bayern, he was (unpopular opinion, I know) very unlucky as regards Champions League. Interesting to compare the above to the nine seasons before: 14 semi-finalists instead of 20, Barca 7, Bayern, Real 6, Chelsea 4. Way more monopolized.

@01fmz @ademir2z @CityFandk Yes I said that in the article.

@Zonal_Marking @ademir2z @CityFandk Take the heavy bookies margin on futures out of these and you’re getting ~1.7 expected value of CLs in this timespan. “Underperformed” maybe but certainly nothing wild from a statistical pov at least

@tgrdebate @bozzie59 I think the big failure is that they've been knocked out three times by clubs who finished 20-odd points behind them in the PL.

@Zonal_Marking @bozzie59 If we take the 9 full seasons 2016/17-2024/25 that leaves City in a split 3rd place (Real 6 semi-finals, PSG 4, Bayern, Liverpool, City 3). This looks disappointing. But then it is also surprising that no one has kind of a semi-final subscription. 36 possibilities, 20 clubs.

@ademir2z @CityFandk It's surprising how short they were at times. (There is some inconsistency here as some pre-group draw and some post-draw) 12/1 5th (Barca, Bayern, Real, Juve) 10/1 5th (PSG in for Juve) 9/2 7/2 9/2 2nd (Bayern) 9/1 2nd (PSG) 5/2 9/4 5/2 9/1 6th (Liv, Barca, PSG, Arsenal, Real)

@Zonal_Marking @CityFandk What were the odds out of interest? Guessing about 5-1 for the favourites generally?

@_ToddBeane @hero_of_sky Well yeah, partly because the team that has been the PL champions in seven of those seasons haven't done *that* well!

@Zonal_Marking @hero_of_sky Fair enough, Michael. Only three English teams in total three CL from 2014-2025. Spanish teams won seven in that same period. ???? Curious about your evidence. Sincerely.

@hero_of_sky @_ToddBeane That's good to know, but I'm happy to take the data from companies whose business model depends on this kind of thing, rather than the views of @hero_of_sky off Twitter

@Zonal_Marking @_ToddBeane Is it really? Real Madrid are almost always the favourites as far as I'm concerned.