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White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

Trump says Iran is strongly interested in making a deal, according to a new Fox News interview. This is a notable shift in tone from what Vance said earlier about deep mistrust between the two sides. If Trump is reading Iran's posture as deal-hungry, that likely means back-channel signals are more positive than the public messaging has let on.

Oil pulled back Wednesday evening on reports that the U.S. and Iran may be heading back to the negotiating table, per the WSJ. This is a notable shift in tone after a chaotic 24 hours that included a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and six merchant ships being physically turned away. If talks resume, the pressure on crude could continue to ease.

Trump is now claiming credit for preventing Iran from going nuclear, telling Fox News that without his intervention, Tehran would already have a weapon. This comes as the US is actively blockading the Strait of Hormuz and direct negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Trump framing himself as the reason Iran hasn't crossed the nuclear threshold is part of his broader pressure campaign, and it signals he sees the current standoff as a moment of maximum leverage.

The Iran blockade is now 24 hours old and not a single ship has passed through, according to the Wall Street Journal. That is a complete halt to traffic in one of the world's busiest shipping corridors. The longer this holds, the more pressure builds on global supply chains and energy markets when they open tomorrow.

Japan is extending the release of its private oil reserves for another month, according to TV Asahi. This comes as global energy markets remain on edge over the Iran situation. Japan is one of the world's largest oil importers, and prolonging reserve releases signals Tokyo is serious about keeping domestic supply stable while the Strait of Hormuz standoff plays out.

The US has physically turned back six merchant ships trying to leave the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Washington Post. This is no longer just a naval interception story. A full blockade posture in the world's most critical oil chokepoint is a serious escalation. Expect this to hit oil futures and shipping stocks hard when markets open tomorrow.

Gold moved higher Wednesday as the dollar softened and falling oil prices eased concerns about a resurgence in inflation. With oil pulling back on Iran deal optimism, one of the main arguments for persistent inflation is getting quieter. That gives gold room to move on its safe haven appeal without the headwind of rising real yields.

U.S. Navy destroyer intercepts two Iranian oil tankers leaving Chabahar port and orders them to turn back, per Reuters. This is a direct escalation in the Persian Gulf at the exact moment nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran are still active. The timing could not be more complicated for diplomats on both sides trying to reach a deal.

Asia markets are extending gains into the session as Iran deal optimism keeps oil prices under pressure. This is a continuation of the same trade that drove Wall Street higher on Tuesday. Lower oil is feeding through to transport stocks, manufacturing, and consumer names across the region. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are both holding solid gains early in the Thursday session.

Asia markets are holding their gains as the session gets underway, tracking Wall Street's overnight rally with oil prices continuing to slide on U.S.-Iran deal optimism. The through-line here is that lower oil prices are doing a lot of heavy lifting across global markets right now. Airlines, shipping, and consumer-facing sectors across the region stand to benefit if crude stays suppressed while diplomacy plays out.

The US job market looks a lot weaker than the headline numbers suggest. Since January 2024, healthcare and social assistance has added 1.7 million jobs. Every other industry combined has shed 56,000 over that same stretch. Strip out healthcare and the labor market has been essentially flat for well over a year. That context matters a lot when the Fed is leaning on "labor market resilience" as a reason to stay patient on rate cuts.

Asian markets followed through on that open-higher setup, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Sensex all posting cautious gains as oil prices eased on US-Iran talk optimism. The recovery is real but guarded. Traders are not fully buying into a resolution yet, and Hormuz uncertainty is keeping a ceiling on how far risk appetite can stretch. Vance already flagged earlier today that deep mistrust between the two sides makes a quick deal unlikely, and that skepticism is showing up in how these markets are trading.

Asia markets are set to open higher as optimism builds around a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, with oil prices pulling back sharply. WTI crude dropped 2.39% to $88.94 a barrel as of Tuesday evening. Brent fell more than 4% to settle at $94.79. That kind of move in oil is meaningful relief for import-heavy Asian economies that have been absorbing elevated energy costs since the Gulf tensions escalated. The combination of diplomatic progress and falling crude is giving markets in Tokyo, Seoul, and Hong Kong something to work with heading into Wednesday's open.

Japan is moving to formally classify oil-based products as "specifically important" under its national security framework, according to Nikkei. This is a direct response to the Gulf crisis disrupting global supply chains. Japan imports nearly all of its oil and has very little buffer if Middle East flows get choked off. Formalizing this classification gives Tokyo more legal authority to stockpile, subsidize, and protect oil supply as a strategic asset.

France has entered the Iran nuclear negotiations, according to sources, adding a major European player to talks that have so far been dominated by the US. This matters because French involvement signals the diplomatic effort is broadening beyond bilateral US-Iran talks. France has historically been one of the toughest voices on Iranian nuclear limits inside the E3 framework alongside the UK and Germany, so their active participation could push for stricter terms than Tehran might prefer.

Gold held onto its recent gains after U.S.-Iran negotiations cooled fears about an oil-driven inflation spike, with crude pulling back and the dollar softening. The setup is unusual. Gold usually climbs on fear. Here it's being supported by the absence of fear, specifically the possibility that an Iran deal removes a major upside risk to oil prices and gives central banks more room to stay on hold or cut. Lower oil, softer dollar, and reduced inflation pressure are all running in the same direction right now.

Central banks that spent years hoarding gold are now selling it, and the reason is simple: war costs money. Some sovereign holders are liquidating bullion to raise cash as military and economic pressures from the ongoing Gulf conflict force hard choices about reserves. Gold had been the go-to safe haven asset during the accumulation years, but when a government needs liquidity fast, even gold gets sold. This is a notable shift. Central bank buying was one of the key structural drivers propping up gold prices over the past few years. If that demand pillar starts reversing, even modestly, it changes the supply-demand picture for the metal going forward.

Vance confirms the US is actively negotiating with Iran. This is a direct statement from the Vice President, adding official weight to what had been described earlier as cautious diplomacy. The last two tweets on this topic covered his skepticism and then a shift to optimism. Now he is putting it plainly: talks are happening.

Vance is now striking a more optimistic tone on the Iran nuclear talks, saying he feels good about where things stand. That's a notable shift from earlier today when he was emphasizing deep mistrust between the two sides. The back and forth from the US delegation suggests the talks are still very much in motion, with sentiment swinging by the hour.

Vance is tempering expectations on the US-Iran talks, saying the deep mistrust between the two sides is not going away quickly. This comes as negotiations have been ongoing, and Vance's framing suggests the White House is bracing for a long road rather than a fast deal. Not exactly the language markets want to hear heading into another round of talks.