Andy Grace

@jackimaniel @SecScottBessent It'll force central banks back into QE. That might lower rates at the short end of the curve but bad news for Bessent is the long end is spiking already. $10T to roll over + $2T deficit to fund. It's no coincidence that free passage thru Hormuz if crude is denominated in yuan.

Read this statement carefully because buried inside the triumphalist language is a significant admission. Bessent is releasing Iranian oil onto global markets to keep prices down while bombing Iran. He frames it as using Iranian barrels against Tehran. But what he is actually describing is the United States lifting sanctions on Iranian oil revenues because the economic consequences of this war have become politically unmanageable. The country being subjected to maximum pressure is simultaneously having its sanctioned oil unlocked by the Treasury Secretary of the country bombing it. The structural contradiction is extraordinary. Maximum pressure as a doctrine means denying Iran revenue to weaken its economy and force political change. Releasing 140 million barrels of Iranian oil onto global markets generates revenue flows that ultimately benefit the Iranian state regardless of Bessent’s claim that Iran will have difficulty accessing them. Money is fungible. Oil that reaches buyers generates economic activity that reduces pressure on the regime. The “winning at an even faster pace than anticipated” claim lands on the same night Victoria Base is ablaze in Baghdad, the IRGC has issued an evacuation warning for Ras al-Khaimah, the IEA declared the worst energy crisis in history, and the Pentagon confirmed detailed ground invasion preparations. If this is faster than anticipated the original anticipation had significant problems. The final line is the most revealing. “Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans.” Diesel stations are empty in New South Wales. Inflation expectations hit 5.2 percent. Gas is up 45 percent in four months. Mortgage rates at 2026 highs. That is not short-term disruption framing. That is the economic signature of a supply shock with a six month restoration timeline per the IEA. Bessent is a serious economist who knows exactly what these numbers mean. The fact that he is describing them as short-term disruption tells you this statement is political communication not economic analysis. Iran’s oil is being sold to fund price relief for the war being waged against Iran. That is the sentence that defines where this war actually stands financially on Day 21.

Iran is the head of the snake for global terrorism, and through President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, we are winning this critical fight at an even faster pace than anticipated. In response to Iran’s terrorist attacks against global energy infrastructure, the Trump Administration will continue to deploy America’s economic and military might to maximize the flow of energy to the world, strengthen global supply, and seek to ensure market stability. Today, the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea. At present, sanctioned Iranian oil is being hoarded by China on the cheap. By temporarily unlocking this existing supply for the world, the United States will quickly bring approximately 140 million barrels of oil to global markets, expanding the amount of worldwide energy and helping to relieve the temporary pressures on supply caused by Iran. In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down as we continue Operation Epic Fury. This temporary, short-term authorization is strictly limited to oil that is already in transit and does not allow new purchases or production. Further, Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated and the United States will continue to maintain maximum pressure on Iran and its ability to access the international financial system. So far, the Trump Administration has been working to bring around 440 million additional barrels of oil to the global market, undercutting Iran’s ability to leverage its disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels, strengthening energy security and lowering fuel costs. Any short-term disruption now will ultimately translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans – because there is no prosperity without security.

Destination: Alaska or bust open.substack.com/pub/andygrace/…

All that glitters may debase debt-based currencies open.substack.com/pub/andygrace/…

@MercanTroy @WesternLensman Iran is a core BRICS member and Global South countries can and probably will attack the bond market. That would do immensely more damage to America than any military or terrorist attack.

Iran is acting in its traditional defiant manner and I would expect the regime to continue to pretend that it can fight against "The Great Satan", but we know that they can't harm us deeply and we are on the right side of history. They will double down now that they have nothing to lose. They thought Trump was bluffing, but the nuclear program was a red line for us. We simply couldn't allow any continued development of capabilities to produce weapons. Hegseth was clear that Trump has never wavered in his position on nuclear proliferation, especially regarding state sponsors of terror. I'm glad the administration is showing a unified front and that Rubio, Hegseth, and everyone else are on the same page as Trump. The Democrats wish they could divide us, but we give them no crack to drive a wedge into! 😎🇺🇸👍

RUBIO: It would be a terrible mistake if Iran retaliated. But that's not our goal. We are not declaring war on Iran. We're not looking for war on Iran. But if they attack us, then I think we have capabilities they haven't even seen yet. It would be a terrible mistake on their part. And frankly, it's not what we hope for.

@WesternLensman Iran won't attack the United States militarily. Their strength is in the oil market. Expect the BRICS and Global South to further cut USD trade and attack the bond market, right when the Treasury is dangerously low on cash and trillions in paper needs to be rolled over.

@thekriskay @erde364698 @zerohedge We can't even buy micro-EVs In Australia. This is the range and yes, even a decent pickup truck. Quality is outstanding - I was a skeptic till I drove a couple.

@erde364698 @zerohedge yea so fire

Overnight the world's largest maker of EVs, China's BYD (it surpassed Tesla last year) unleashed a price war nuke, cutting prices by up to 34%. Other Chinese automakers immediately followed. This will send a deflationary shockwave and spark major trade war escalation by Europe

@dvpme @thekriskay @zerohedge Hardly anyone in America has seen. Here in Australia we've gone from crap Chinese cars to excellent in about 8 years. BYD is killing it on quality from small to pickup trucks. The latest MG EVs (owned by SAIC) are great value and good quality. GWM selling plenty too.

@thekriskay @zerohedge I guess you haven’t seen a Chinese EV lately?

@weremainbull1sh @Demodred2022 @IranObserver0 US ending the INR treaty on IRBMs enabled Russia, Pakistan and Iran to build very large hypersonic missile assets with the aim of taking out NATO nuclear installations before launch. That requires tens of thousands and at $100k each, a fraction of the cost of the PAC3.

@andygrace @Demodred2022 @IranObserver0 Iran is estimated to have 2000–3000 missiles total

THE MOMENT FATTAH-1 HYPERSONIC MISSILE STRUCK HAIFA

@weremainbull1sh @Demodred2022 @IranObserver0 First manufactured in 2022. Intelligence says Fattah-1 had 400 when they were officially launched in June 2023 and been building at a rate of 100+ per week ever since. Also Khorramshahr-4 has been produced in large numbers.

@andygrace @Demodred2022 @IranObserver0 20000? Hahahahahahahahahahahahhaha

@Demodred2022 @IranObserver0 They're steerable and accurate. Kinetic energy at Mach 13-15 is off the scale due to k = 0.5 x mv^2. They have a nuclear-type punch but without radiation/fallout. That was a warning. Iran have at least 20,000 of them unless Israel took some out in the initial attack.

@IranObserver0 Looks like they can’t even control Where they shoot 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣.

That's a 'Dollar Word Salad', even for him! open.substack.com/pub/andygrace/…

Reciprocal tariffs open.substack.com/pub/andygrace/…

Gold hits $3000 per ounce.

@RadioGenoa Obviously far too difficult to hold an election with so many people afraid to leave their homes.

Ukraine, sports hall in Kiev, 1 March 2025.

@whmarshall77 @elonmusk Worse still the Fed creates currency out of nothing and hands it over to the banks. At night the banks park it back at the Fed where they get paid the current overnight rate with a repurchase agreement so they have liquidity on their books for the next day. Repeat every day.

Let's start with that audit of Fort Knox. Also, take a close look at the Federal Reesrve. Why should they be allowed to create money out of nothing and then loan it back to us at interest? There is a better way. Bill Still of The Still Report explains what we need to do in this 10 minute video. youtu.be/X0T0kah00ME?si…

Will do, Mr. President!

@gcal2600 These are just the IMF official figures of bullion held by central banks - vastly different from reality. The Chinese government will hold at least 30,000 tons, Russia more than 10,000 tons. The rest is anyone's guess because so much gold gets leased out and may never return.

GOLD Update: Here are the top 20 countries that own Gold. 1.United States - 8,133 metric tons 2.Germany - 3,353 metric tons 3.Italy - 2,452 metric tons 4.France - 2,437 metric tons 5.Russia - 2,333 metric tons 6.China - 2,235 metric tons 7.Switzerland - 1,040 metric tons 8.Japan - 846 metric tons 9.India - 804 metric tons 10.Netherlands - 612 metric tons 11.Turkey - 506 metric tons 12.Taiwan - 423 metric tons 13.Portugal - 382 metric tons 14.Kazakhstan - 375 metric tons 15.Saudi Arabia - 323 metric tons 16.United Kingdom - 310 metric tons 17.Spain - 281 metric tons 18.Austria - 279 metric tons 19.Lebanon - 268 metric tons 20.Belgium - 227 metric tons An interesting fact is that United Kingdom who is only in 16th place actually has in custody 5,396 metric tons putting it in second place with respect to amount held in country. The Bank of England holds the gold on behalf of Countries and Institutions. What happens when countries and institutions want their Gold back?

@iyahmaymusic Congratulations! Now you're featured on Zerohedge you're going to be massive in America. :)

🥺🥺🙏

@RobertKennedyJr @Jkylebass A Kennedy of all people should know the middle class's hedge against inflation is silver.

@Jkylebass Bitcoin is the currency of freedom , a hedge against inflation for middle class Americans,a remedy against the dollar’s downgrade from the world’s reserve currency, and the offramp from a ruinous national debt. Bitcoin will have no stronger advocate than Howard Lutnik.

Scott Bessent is eminently more qualified than Howard Lutnick to run the U.S. Treasury. Scott understands markets, economics, people, and geopolitics better than anyone I’ve ever interacted with. Markets have already anticipated a Bessent choice. Lutnick is not Trump’s answer.