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@josterWW

i love @Polymarket & @zscdao copywriter / push-up certified / Barça till I die

Prediction market Bergabung Ocak 2012
258 Mengikuti114 Pengikut
Alex
Alex@armouredme·
Remember my post from April 8th about the unpriced time premium? I told you the crowd was mispricing 9 days of geopolitical optionality on the Iran market Look at the update on the second slide The market finally woke up and corrected the spread violently Three days ago April 21 and April 30 were both trading at exactly 51¢ Now April 21 has dumped to 27¢ while April 30 holds at 43¢ That 9-day window now correctly carries a massive 16¢ premium If you bought the shorter duration like the rest of the herd you just lost half your position value If you took the free theta on April 30 you protected your capital Time is never free in prediction markets Retail ignores theta until the market forces them to pay for it Smart money identifies the mispricing before the correction
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Alex@armouredme

Retail math on Polymarket never fails to amaze me Look at this $16M market for military operations ending April 21 is trading at 49% April 30 is trading at 51% Look closely at the prices on the screenshot You can buy "Yes" for April 21 at 51¢ You can buy "Yes" for April 30 at the exact same 51¢ The crowd is buying the shorter duration and leaving 9 days of geopolitical optionality completely unpriced In what world does a 9-day window in an active conflict carry zero premium? If you are playing the "Yes" side and buying the April 21 contract you are just donating EV Take the free theta Buy April 30 instead Stop mispricing time

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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@zscdao The best DAO Big congratulations!🥳
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zerosupercycle
zerosupercycle@zscdao·
Half a year back, Polymarket has got the best community ever Happy 6 months to us!
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The Touchline | 𝐓
The Touchline | 𝐓@TouchlineX·
🚨 𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗘 𝗢𝗥 𝗙𝗔𝗟𝗦𝗘: Lamine Yamal is the CLEAR favorite for the Ballon d'or this year! 💫✨
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@Polymarket Good news for global trade - this should ease tensions in the region and stabilize shipping routes
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: Qatar announces maritime navigation will fully resume for all vessels & ships in the Persian Gulf starting Sunday.
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Lutchyn
Lutchyn@Lutchyn13·
Atalanta vs Juventus This is a clash between direct competitors for a top four finish this season. It is difficult to predict how the match will end. I always hope to see goals and exciting moments, but Italian football is often known for its tactical and cautious approach. Atalanta are still fighting for the Coppa Italia, while Juventus are fully focused on the league and securing a place in the top four. Qualification for the Champions League is the club’s main objective at this stage of the season. Luciano Spalletti recently signed a new contract, and the future of Juventus is closely tied to him. Therefore, a victory in this match is extremely important for the Turin side. My Polymarket prediction is a Juventus win.
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@TouchlineX This Bayern is just insane 2 goals in 1 minute
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The Touchline | 𝐓
The Touchline | 𝐓@TouchlineX·
3-0 Bayern Munich. GOOOOOOOAAAAAAALLLLLL MICHAEL OLISE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HE GOT WHISTLED THE ENTIRE GAME AND HE RESPONDS WITH A GOLAZO + AN ICONIC CELEBRATION !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HE IS ASKING WHERE HIS HATERS ARE NOW AS HE CAN'T HEAR THEM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Lutchyn
Lutchyn@Lutchyn13·
Barcelona vs Espanyol Barcelona are exhausted after their defeat to Atletico in the Champions League and are likely already focused on the second leg and the much-needed remontada. Espanyol were unlucky not to win the first meeting against Barcelona and will once again try to put up a strong fight and take points from this derby. Real Madrid dropped points yesterday, giving Barcelona a great opportunity to extend their lead over the Madrid side to nine points. This would provide confidence for the final stretch of the season and allow the team to conserve energy for the Champions League. Rotation is expected, but I believe that the players who step in will deliver their best and secure a convincing result. My Polymarket prediction is a Barcelona win by two goals or more.
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@0xTengen_ Most likely yes But Bayern have a pretty solid rotation - Kompany gave the main squad a rest
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
BUNDESLIGA Bayern Munich vs St. Pauli 1910 How I want to make money on this match? > This is a game between an underdog and the Bundesliga leader, where Bayern are clear favorites > Bayern are on the verge of a historic milestone - 101 goals in a Bundesliga season (currently 100) > The last St. Pauli win vs Bayern was in 2002 at Millerntor - since then Bayern have won 10 of the last 11 H2Hs > St. Pauli are having one of their worst Bundesliga seasons ever (25 points), with only 25 goals scored (lowest in the league) I think Bayern should have no problems in this match, especially after how they beat Real Madrid Today I won't take risks and will go with BAYERN TO WIN at 69c Will Bayern break the record today?
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LIA
LIA@Lianatyn·
@josterWW @Polymarket My man 🤝 We really need a sensation here, I believe that it is possible today
GIF
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LIA
LIA@Lianatyn·
You may not follow boxing events, but today there will be a high-profile event 🥊 Tyson Fury vs Arslanbek Makhmudov Boxing night in London With the support of Netflix and Ring For those who believe in Makhmudov’s victory, there is a chance to make a big profit at Polymarket Current odds: Fury 84% Makhmudov 16% Experience of victories over the strongest rivals against unbridled power. Who will win? Let’s see. polymarket.com/ru/event/boxin… My prediction is Arslanbek Makhmudov will win today, because many experts do not take into account that Fury has a big downtime after two defeats to Alexander Usyk, and Makhmudov is fresher and constantly performing. DYOR @PolymarketSport #Boxing #FuryMakhmudov
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LIA@Lianatyn

Possible profit +666% on a boxing event. What are the chances that the underdog will win? Tyson Fury vs Arslanbek Makhmudov 85% / 15% current odds at @Polymarket April 11, 2026 in London For Fury, this is an attempt to prove his form after almost a year and a half break and make a bright return to big-time sport. For Makhmudov, it is a chance to loudly declare himself and open the door to the top league. 🇬🇧 Tyson Fury “The Gypsy King” – great experience, huge dimensions, plasticity, battle tactics. Former WBC, WBO, IBO, WBA World Champion. Age: 37 Height: 206 cm Weight: 127 kg Arm swing: 216 cm Record: 34 victories, 24 by knockouts, 3 defeats Position in the world ranking: out of rating 🇷🇺 Arslanbek Makhmudov “Lion” – power, speed, impact force. Current champion according to WBA Inter-Continental in the heavyweight category. He won this title on October 11, 2025, defeating Dave Allen by unanimous decision. Age: 36 Height: 197 cm Weight: 120 kg Arm swing: 197 cm Record: 21 victories, 19 by knockouts, 2 defeats Position in the world ranking: 20 Both boxers can surprise; both have knockout power but gaps in defense. For most, Fury's victory is obvious, but he has already ended his boxing career 5 times and suffered two consecutive defeats to Alexander Usyk, where he showed his weaknesses. Makhmudov also lost, but he did not end his career and continued to work on himself. My choice is in favor of the underdog Makhmudov here. I want to see this sensation. I'm ready to risk a comfortable amount and make this prediction. Let’s see how it will be tomorrow👇 polymarket.com/event/boxing-t… @PolymarketSport #boxing #Polymarket

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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@Polymarket We'll see where this initiative leads
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
BREAKING: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is filing a motion to expel Eric Swalwell from Congress.
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Tiptop
Tiptop@dobioprer·
Staked $6,340 on NHL Tonight Going big on teams playing in "Desperation Mode." Both Detroit and San Jose are fighting for their playoff lives, while their opponents have far less to play for. Position on @Polymarket: Red Wings to win vs Devils (56%) Sharks to win vs Canucks (66%) Detroit is just 3 points out of a Wild Card spot. They face a Devils team that is already eliminated. It’s a must-win for the Wings to keep their season alive. San Jose needs every point to close the 4-point gap for the final playoff spot. Facing Vancouver - the league’s bottom-dwellers - is their best chance to gain ground. The motivation gap is huge tonight. Let’s see if the favorites handle the pressure.
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LIA
LIA@Lianatyn·
@josterWW @Polymarket Will you be rooting for him too? There are great chances here, in my opinion
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0xSntx
0xSntx@0xSntx·
whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat $2.6M just evaporated from his balance after @Arsenal loss he should've just donated that money for a proper full‑back instead
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Ivan Benzema@Ivanbenzemama

I'm in absolute shock right now. This @Polymarket trader "gfjoigfsjoigsjoi" put over $1.5 million on Arsenal to win. How is this even possible? I can't wrap my head around it. How do you not get scared betting such a huge amount of money? But if @Arsenal actually pulls it off and wins he'll be able to take home more than a million dollars in pure profit. And get this the man only has 6 predictions on his profile so far and every single one of them has been a winner. I'm definitely going to keep a close eye on him from now on. Profile: @gfjoigfsjoigsjoi?r=Kaito" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@gfjoigfsjoigs

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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@0xSntx I don't really believe in a 0-0, it's a derby after all And I don't think the team's playing styles point to a 0-0 either But anything is possible
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
LALIGA Barcelona FC vs RCD Espanyol Where is the value here? > Espanyol are fighting for European spots, but at home they’ve been solid - scoring consistently in their last 5 matches (5 goals), with Pere Milla as their main scorer > H2H: Barcelona have won 86 of 154 league meetings (285–172 in goals), including recent 3-1 at home and 2-0 away wins vs Espanyol > Espanyol are one of Barcelona's most frequent opponents, with 34 draws in the rivalry > In their last 5 matches, Espanyol have scored in every game, while Barcelona haven’t lost a derby since 2023 I don't see value in taking Barcelona to win at 72c today. I expect Flick to rotate heavily to prepare for a tough Champions League return leg vs Atletico That's why my prediction on @Polymarket is BTTS DYOR What do you think?
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bonduelle
bonduelle@bonduelleioat·
Fury vs Makhmudov @Polymarket gives 84% ​​to Fury And I'm here for Tyson Fury too. Not because Arslanbek Makhmudov is weak, not at all. Arslanbek is a real machine with a concrete punch, but in elite-level boxing, strength is not the only thing that matters. But Fury is a completely different level of boxing. He won't get into exchanges. He'll dry the fight, work with jabs, knit in clinch and simply won't let Makhmudov shoot normally. And without that, all his strength is a little lost. And another point is that if Makhmudov doesn't do anything in the first rounds, it will be difficult for him later. Fury just loves such fights where you have to "survive" and then take what's his. I see it this way either Fury will break him somewhere closer to the 8th–10th round, or he will simply calmly outbox him on points. But Makhmudov always has a chance, heavyweight is heavyweight. But if everything goes according to plan then this is Fury’s fight. I bet on Fury DYOR
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Joster
Joster@josterWW·
@Polymtrx Of course they will play for the win to go +9 points clear of Real Madrid but the game will likely be slow as they save energy for the Champions League
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MTRX
MTRX@Polymtrx·
@josterWW Barcelona maybe win?
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