Nick.

🚨 SUMMARY: Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement Tax - Tax burden to rise to 38% of GDP by 2030/31 - highest since WW2 - Frozen thresholds to pull 1 million pensioners into paying income tax by 2030/31 Growth - Lower GDP growth in 2026 at 1.1% from 1.4%, but higher than expected in 2027 and 2028 at 1.6%, and 1.5% in 2029 Inflation - Set to hit the 2% target in late 2026 - earlier than forecast in November - and expected to stay at 2% from 2027 onwards Unemployment, benefits and pensions - Unemployment set to peak at 5.3% in 2026 - higher than the 4.9% forecast in November - before falling to 4.1% by 2030 - Welfare spending to rise by £18bn this year to £333bn, before hitting £407bn in 2030/31 Housing - House prices will rise between 2.4% and 2.9% each year between 2026 and 2030 Borrowing - 4.3% of GDP (£133bn) in 2026 and 1.6% of GDP (£59bn) in 2030/31 - £8bn lower than November's forecast Debt - Peaks at about 96.5% of GDP in 2028/29 before falling to 95% by 2030/31 Spending - 45% of GDP this year - edging down to just over 44% by 2030/31 Caution: The OBR warns these forecasts could shift significantly because of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran