Ostap Karmodi

How Europe Should Defend Itself: An Unpopular View I thank @Noahpinion, @milkeninstitute and many others for food for thought. nextathens.substack.com/p/stick-and-tw…

NATO加盟約30か国の大使が今月中旬、一斉に日本を訪問する方向で調整が進んでいます。 「約30か国が同時に」という規模に、まず驚いてください。 外交の現場でこれほどの規模の集団訪問は、極めて異例です。 NATOは現在32か国が加盟する軍事同盟で、日本はそのメンバーではありません。 にもかかわらず、なぜ加盟国のほぼ全大使がわざわざ東京に足を運ぶのでしょうか。 この動きを理解するには、ここ数年の日本とNATOの急速な接近を知る必要があります。 2022年2月、ロシアがウクライナに全面侵攻しました。 当時の岸田前総理は「今日のウクライナは明日の東アジアかもしれない」という言葉を繰り返しました。 欧州の戦火をアジアの安全保障と直結させた、歴史的な瞬間です。 それ以降、日本とNATOの関係は加速度的に深まりました。 2022年6月、日本の首相として初めてNATO首脳会合に出席。 2023年7月、「日・NATO国別適合パートナーシップ計画（ITPP）」を締結し、サイバー防衛・宇宙安全保障・偽情報対策など16分野での協力が明文化されました。 2025年1月には日本がNATO本部に専任大使を置く政府代表部を独立開設しています。 そして今年に入ってからも動きは止まりません。 3月5日から6日にかけてNATOのシェケリンスカ事務次長が訪日し、防衛産業の現場や厚木基地を直接視察しました。 4月1日には船越外務事務次官がNATO首席補佐官ファン・レーウウェン氏と協議を行ったばかりです。 この積み重ねの延長線上に、今回の約30か国大使の一斉訪日があります。 注目すべきは、訪問の「形式」です。 個別の大使が順番に来るのではなく、30か国が「まとめて」動くという点に、NATOとしての組織的な意思を読み取るべきです。 これは個々の国の親日外交ではなく、NATOという同盟体が日本を戦略パートナーとして位置づけた上での、集団的な意思表示です。 訪問の議題として想定されるのは、主に三つです。 ひとつは、インド太平洋の安全保障環境の直接確認です。 台湾海峡・南シナ海・北朝鮮の核ミサイル問題について、欧州側の認識と日本の現状認識をすり合わせる場になります。 2つ目は、防衛産業協力の具体化です。 昨年の石破総理とルッテ事務総長の共同声明にも「防衛装備・産業協力の加速」が明記されました。 日本のデュアルユース技術やスタートアップ企業の実力を大使団が直接確認することは、今後の共同開発や装備調達に向けた現地調査という側面を持ちます。 3つ目は、ウクライナ支援の継続確認です。 日本はこれまで非致死性装備の提供・国際制裁への参加・復興支援資金の拠出を続けてきました。 戦況が長期化する中、NATOとしては日本の関与がどこまで持続するかを確かめたい思惑があります。 この関係強化は、日本の家計とも無縁ではありません。 防衛費はGDP比2％への増額方針が固まり、2027年度に向けて5年間で43兆円規模の予算が動いています。 NATOとの協力が深まれば、装備の共通化・情報共有・訓練の合同化が進みます。 自衛隊の実力は高まる一方で、その財源は増税か国債か、社会保障費との綱引きという形で、家計に跳ね返ってきます。 防衛費の膨張・金利上昇・物価の高止まり、これらはすべて一本の糸でつながっています。 もう一点、重要な矛盾があります。 日本はNATOの正式メンバーではないにもかかわらず、事実上の準加盟国のような扱いになりつつあります。 憲法9条が存在し、集団的自衛権の行使は依然として限定的です。 同盟の深化と憲法上の制約のギャップは、NATOとの連携が進むほど大きくなります。 この設計上の齟齬に、日本社会はまだ正面から向き合えていません。 約30か国の大使が一斉に東京へ来る。 その事実だけでも、世界が今の日本に何を求めているかを、雄弁に語っています。 あなたは、日本がNATOとこれほど急速に関係を深めることを、どう受け止めますか？

RT @jbetlach: Izraelská armáda se připravuje na scénář, v němž otázka obohaceného uranu nebude v rámci případné dohody mezi USA a Íránem vy…

Tourism bans, Airbnb bans, these are bad ideas Hypertourism should be taxed into manageable levels with Pigovian tools like this 👇 You don't need a ban, you need an aggressive but thoughtful tax regime that moderates hypertourism & yields wide public benefit

Just to underline: we are talking here about a terrorist who tried to murder 140 toddlers.

I hope Netanyahu knows it

I wonder how long Trump can suffer Iranian mockery. Iranians seemingly do too.

To celebrate the ceasefire Iran bombed the pipeline the Saudi used to export its oil without sending it through Hormuz

That was inevitable

@visegrad24 Also the ones of UAE and Kuwait

BREAKING: Looks like Iran is still attacking Saudi oil infrastructure despite the ceasefire agreement. A suicide drone just struck a pumping station on the East-West Oil Pipeline. It was used for sending oil to a Red Sea port, bypassing the blocked Hormuz Strait in recent weeks

If the ceasfire ends up holding, Pakistan's prime minister Shehbaz Sharif is going to be a shoo-in for the next FIFA Peace Prize.

@mattyglesias Yep, right you are. Sorry.

@ostap Except he didn't write a New York Times column?

It's unfortunate that these Grok summaries are inaccurate.

I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship

@jonkarl I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship

This morning, I asked President Trump if he’s okay with the Iranians charging a toll for all ships that go through the Strait of Hormuz, he told me there may be a Joint US-Iran venture to charge tolls: “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people.” “It’s a beautiful thing”

NEW: The Iran war and Trump’s handling of it have weakened America in the eyes of its adversaries, US allies say. The conflict has been a strategic setback, bolstering China and Russia while squandering American strengths and damaging its alliances, according to people familiar with the thinking across capitals in Europe and the Middle East. Moscow and Beijing fear US military and intelligence superiority but they have seen it couldn’t force Iran’s capitulation, the people said. Splits in NATO have left lasting doubts over Trump’s commitment to its defence which will be celebrated by its enemies.  The circumstances of the ceasefire dent Trump’s credibility as a negotiator and will likely further dissuade Putin from making concessions in Ukraine, according to the people. Officials in Europe fear Iran may end up viewed as the strategic winner despite the killing of Khamenei and more than five weeks of heavy bombardment. @LordRickettsP says Tehran “emerges strategically stronger.” The IRGC remains in place, could likely become more hardline and quickly rebuild its missile programme, the people said. Tehran will conclude its drone capabilities are sufficient to cause significant problems for Gulf states and see confirmation that its leverage over Hormuz is capable of triggering a global energy crisis that may deter any future attack. It remains unclear to what extent the war has diminished Iran’s nuclear programme and its leaders may have been incentivised to renew their ambitions to get the bomb, according to European officials. One key unknown is the influence Tehran will be able to exert over the strait longer-term, one of the officials said, noting that transit will initially be permitted in coordination with the Iranian military. If it is able to dictate the terms of movement through the waterway or even charge tolls then Iran will in some ways have been left in a stronger position by the conflict, they said.  US allies are also fearful of the impact the conflict will have on the views of countries in the Middle East, Africa, Asia and South America toward Washington.  In the Gulf, there is particular alarm among some countries that their initial pleas not to proceed with the conflict went ignored, according to people familiar with their thinking. Some Gulf officials may see walking away with the Tehran regime in place as even worse, they said, with concern over Trump’s unpredictability prompting them to strengthen alliances elsewhere, they said.  Trump had likely viewed his operation against Maduro as evidence he could decapitate enemy regimes and swiftly win wars, but that notion had now been dispelled, another official said.  Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s civilisation will make it harder for the US to paint itself as a benign hegemon, in contrast to Russia and China, which the West routinely accuses of war crimes and human rights abuses, they said. They warned this may push so-called “middle ground” countries toward Moscow and Beijing, suggesting it may take years of diplomacy to undo. Russia, Iran and China would likely also further strengthen ties among them in the wake of the conflict, making it even less likely that the US would be able to achieve a “reverse Kissinger,” officials said.  Officials cited mockery of Trump in Russian and Chinese state media as evidence of how his handling of the war will likely be perceived by those regimes. The TACO meme — that “Trump Always Chickens Out” — is not just an amusing political attack by his domestic opponents but now a geopolitical conclusion of America’s enemies, one said. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Trump-style ceasefire

Британское правительство объявило, что запрещает Канье Уэсту, которого теперь зовут Йе, въезд в страну. Уэст был хедлайнером запланированного на лето музыкального фестиваля. Фестиваль теперь отменили. И ещё 9 Новостей Конца Света в новом выпуске НКС novynovgorod.substack.com/p/736

Just a thought: Ukraine’s President is Jewish. Our Defense Minister is a Muslim, a Crimean Tatar. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is an ethnic Russian. Our top drone ace — recently awarded the title Hero of Ukraine — is an ethnic Hungarian. Over 70,000 women serve in the military now. Almost all of the most renowned combat medics are women. The revolution that changed this country forever began with a Facebook post by an ethnic Afghan Pashtun, a prominent Ukrainian journalist. And in our parliament, we have a Black MP — an Afro-Ukrainian and universally admired Olympic champion. All of this — in a country that is still, for the most part, Slavic. On the streets of Kyiv today, you’ll see halal restaurants for Muslim tourists standing peacefully next to Jewish eateries. Nearby are a museum and a monument to Sholem Aleichem, and a plaque bearing the face of Golda Meir, who once lived here. Among our main landmarks: 19th-century synagogues. Just a short walk away — a large mosque and Muslim cultural center. And above all, of course — the ancient Christian churches and monasteries that are the oldest and most significant in the East Slavic world. I still can’t get over the fact that Ukraine’s chief Muslim mufti (an ethnic Tatar from Donetsk) stepped down to serve as a frontline paramedic in the army. That our chief rabbi works tirelessly every day to help Ukraine across the globe — and that his adopted son died fighting for Ukraine, weapon in hand. For many years now, a giant glowing menorah has stood each Hanukkah in the heart of Kyiv’s main square. And on Independence Day, every religious denomination gathers in Saint Sophia Cathedral to offer prayers for Ukraine, each in their own rite. Just as they all come together for remembrance at Babyn Yar and the Holodomor monument. The more you look at the world, the more often you realize how much healthier Ukrainian society has become when it comes to coexistence between nationalities and faiths. We weren’t always like this. We are becoming this now — as the country is being radically transformed by revolution and by the defense against imperial Russia. We are shedding the weight of so many remnants of the past — really fast. Just recently in May, Ukraine held its WWII commemorations — with poppies and the slogan “Never again!” What a stark contrast to the satanic frenzy of Russia’s “Victory Day,” with its death cult, its “We can do it again!” bravado, and its glorification of dying for the Tsar. Against the backdrop of war, Ukraine is living through a real national and cultural renaissance. We are rediscovering the Ukrainian language, Ukrainian books, music, cinema — as something precious. And for how many decades were we taught to look down on everything Ukrainian — as “third-rate,” “peasant,” “inferior”?... I walk the streets of Kyiv on Christmas (December 25th, not January 7th as demanded by Moscow priests) and see bands of children in traditional embroidered clothes carrying colorful Bethlehem stars and singing carols. “Ukrainian Christmas” is returning to these lands as a vibrant cultural tradition. On Easter, crowds gather near Saint Sophia Cathedral for picnics and spring dances. In the old city above Podil, I often hear youth pounding out Cossack songs on drums. I always see many people at our nation’s sacred places — the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, the cathedrals of Lviv, the Motherland Monument, the old castles. We haven’t suddenly become devout believers. We’ve simply come to take pride, like never before, in being Ukrainian — in treasuring our traditions, our culture, our history, and our way of life, in our own country. New traditions keep being born in wartime, against all odds. Today, we honor war veterans by inviting them to make the symbolic first kick at football matches — and then we give them a standing ovation from the stands, for their service. I could go on like this for hours. What I’m trying to say is — I love what Ukraine is becoming. This hope — breaking through unspeakable pain and hardship — feels like a light piercing the tunnel. Ukraine now, and Ukraine 12 years ago, are two completely different countries. The road ahead is brutally hard, but if only — if only our Ukraine can survive this war for its very existence.

5/5 For the U.S., Trump’s ceasefire has given those opposed to the war an opportunity to join forces and introduce bills and file lawsuits that will make resuming this war, if not completely impossible, then very difficult. Big Win!

4/5 Iran isn’t even required to stop the attacks: American sources stated yesterday that it may take Iran some time to cease fire, since that very chain of command has been disrupted, and orders may not reach the relevant units immediately. I think this will take about two weeks

1/5 So, what has Trump’s *Art of the Deal* brought about? First, what it has brought Iran: - Iran gains control of the Strait of Hormuz, decides who gets to pass through it, and collects money from passing ships.