G. Paco Gonzalez me-retweet

Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco in new $TSLA note:
"We now forecast 1.6M vehicle deliveries in 2026 vs. 1.58M previously. Beyond 2026, we expect auto demand to reaccelerate (mid-teens volume delivery CAGR from 2026-2030) supported by the combination of new model launches (potential variant of Cybertruck and Model YL) and improvements in FSD.
Energy deployments came in at 8.8 GWh vs. 14.4 GWh cons. While this missed consensus expectations by 40%, the energy storage market (particularly large grid-scale storage, which makes up ~95%+ of Tesla's ESS volume) is inherently lumpy given ever-changing project timelines (due to permits, labor, interconnect approval, etc.). As such, we think it's far too early to call this quarter's results a trend, and expect demand to remain relatively robust, due to improving unit economics for utility-scale ESS and growing demand from data center customers.
TSLA's ability to scale the unsupervised robotaxi fleet is the most important catalyst for the stock this year. Each incremental mile driven by the robotaxi fleet accelerates learning for personal FSD, which supports higher FSD attach rates and re-accelerates auto demand, improving FCF generation. To that end, we expect the stock to trade in close correlation to progress in the scaling of the unsupervised robotaxi fleet in Austin and the seven incremental city launches expected by the end of June (see our recent report: Tesla Inc: Unlocking the Robotaxi Flywheel), particularly in light of potential upside to capex in 2026 and 2027 as Tesla invests in solar and chip manufacturing (not in the >$20bn capex guide this year)."
$TSLA price target unchanged at $415.
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