thisisjiaming
40 posts
@TSLAFanMtl Maybe this calculation is right, but if you times the fleet size with accident rate, the accident rate still limit tesla robotaxi expansion. Let’s take 1/188k as the base case, a thousand car fleet would have a crash every 188 miles. It’s still unacceptable.
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I'm starting to think about things differently, in part bc Tesla was able to convince Austin regulators to allow it to operate. My initial thinking was that disengagement rate would be what limits Tesla's autonomy rollout. But if the benchmark is accidents/mile and not disengagements/mile, the threshold for Tesla's autonomy aspirations are lower. Why?
Let's assume the FSD tracker is correct that FSD causes a safety-critical intervention (it does something that could lead to accident) once per every 250 city miles. The other part of the equation is how often will a safety-crical disengagement actually cause an accident/crash? If the rate is 1 out of 100 times, the probability of a crash is therefore 1/250 × 1/100 = 1 accident/crash per 25,000 miles. If the rate is 1 out of 250 times, the probability of a crash is 1/250 × 1/250 = 1/62,500 miles.
Waymo operates at a rate of about 1 police-reported crash per every 500k miles...so Tesla is still not quite there. But it should be noted that Waymo is roughly 2x safer than humans, which crash once per every 220k miles.
Can Tesla decrease their safety-critical disengagement rate from 1/250 to something like 1/750 from additional training/mapping/geofencing etc? This seems very likely. This would hypothetically bring Tesla FSD's crash rate to 1/750×1/100 = 1 crash per 75k miles or 1/750 x 1/250 = 1 crash per 188k miles...approaching human levels.
So these numbers are all speculative and illustrative, of course, but the concept of thinking about the numbers in this way is the 💡moment for me...bc it suggests that maybe they're not as far from autonomy as I once thought they were.
Pete Miller@PeteMiller07
@TSLAFanMtl Tesla still has a critical disengagement rate of 250 miles in the city. No way is that level 4 autonomy, considering the average driver gets into an accident every 600,000 miles.
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