A Casual Capper

The pendulum swung back in our favor yesterday. We had our biggest day of the season (so far), with 7 hits in 11 games for +78.5 units! I know this method requires a lot of work--making lots of bets at multiple books--and it's tough to stick with it on the downturns, but this is the payoff if you do. ✅Bilal Coulibaly ✅Bam Adebayo ✅Jay Huff ✅Mohamed Diawara ✅Dyson Daniels ✅Evan Mobley ✅Daniel Gafford #GamblingTwitter #NBABets #NBA #GamblingX #FirstBasket

@muichiro696 Sorry for the late reply. I'm on vacation. I don't have any up-to-date stats, but you could check out NBA First Basket here: x.com/i/status/20411…. He posts stats daily.

@ACasualCapper understandable, is there any way to get an updated bersion of the lists?

A couple notes on the spreadsheet: (1) I locked the cells that contain formulas to prevent accidental deletion. If you're Excel-savvy and want to adjust some formulas or make other changes, the password to unlock the sheet is 12345. (Go to Review, then Unprotect Sheet.) (2) Cells that have a purple symbol in the upper right corner have comments that you can see if you hover the cursor over the cell. I tried to explain some things that I thought might not be obvious. (3) If you want to handicap more than one game at a time, you can copy and paste everything from cell A4 to L26 as many times as you want. You will have to unlock the sheet first. It might be fun to try out the model for the All-Star Game, if first basket odds are posted. As always, feel free to ask questions. #GamblingTwitter #NBABets #NBA #GamblingX #FirstBasket

@muichiro696 Decided to step away....x.com/i/status/20219….

@ACasualCapper where did ya go brother

@realrichliving I appreciate that! It's been nice having the extra time in the mornings and evenings. I'm still checking in here from time to time, so if you have any questions on the spreadsheet I shared, feel free to ask. Best of luck with your betting ventures!

@ACasualCapper gonna miss u nigga u the goat hope u and the fam always stay up and good !

There's no short answer to that question, unfortunately. My model takes a bunch of data into account, including jump ball history, player usage, positional tendencies, and team defensive and offensive efficiency. The spreadsheet that I shared is, hopefully, a good starting point to separate the players into two categories: (1) who might be a good bet and (2) who might be a bad bet. The odds you're getting from the books are an essential part of that. The bottom line is this: Over the long run, you want to be betting on guys who the books have mispriced. For example, if you think a guy has a +500 (16.7%) chance to score first and the books have him at a +650 (13.3%) chance, you'd want to take that bet. If the numbers are reversed, you'd want to avoid that bet. I know that probably doesn't answer your question, but I hope it at least gives you an idea how you should approach betting in general. If you have specific questions about the spreadsheet, the data, how odds work, or anything else, please feel free to ask. I'll do my best to help.

@ACasualCapper I have some questions how do you pick them I’m new to this

Here's a link to a very basic first basket handicapping model that I made: tinyurl.com/3j4bpmrw. It doesn't have many bells and whistles, but it should give you a start at handicapping first baskets on your own. I also included a lot of data that I've compiled over the past few seasons. Feel free to ask questions if something isn't clear. I'll do my best to help. Enjoy! #GamblingTwitter #NBABets #NBA #GamblingX #FirstBasket

@MundaneAlpha Just posted a link to a simple Excel model. Hope it helps!

@ACasualCapper Definitely

One more thing, I would be willing to put together a simple first basket model as a Google Sheet or Excel spreadsheet if anyone would be interested. It would be pretty basic, but I could set it up to allow you to input data (tip %, usage, odds, etc.) to generate implied probabilities and odds for players. Let me know if you're interested! #GamblingTwitter #NBABets #NBA #GamblingX #FirstBasket

@tayacrosby Just posted a link to a simple Excel model. Hope it helps!

@ACasualCapper Thank you much

@tayacrosby Working on something to share this weekend or early next week.

@ACasualCapper Yes , thank you I’m always confused on how to do them

@MundaneAlpha Working on something to share this weekend or early next week.

@Roesheal_1 Sorry. ☹️

@ACasualCapper Noooo 🥲

Hey, everyone. I've decided I'm going to step away from the first basket bets. This is something I've been considering for a while. There are lots of factors that led to this decision--changes in my work schedule that have me getting home much later than in the past is a big part of it--but the bottom line is, even when we've been winning, it's felt more like something I have to do and less like something I want to do. I've appreciated the encouragement from you all when we were going through rough patches, and I've enjoyed seeing your green betslips when we had a big night. I apologize to those of you who use the daily data that I post to research your bets. Check out @NBAFirstBasket if you don't already follow them; they post a lot of the same data I do, just in a different format. And if you're looking for first basket picks, check out @slam_dunk_bets. They have a free trial you can take advantage of, and they're up over 1000 units (seriously) this season. Thanks again for the engagement over the years, and best of luck with your future bets! #GamblingTwitter #NBABets #NBA #GamblingX #FirstBasket

I know there's a lot to read here, and I've probably missed some things, but I hope some of you find it helpful. If you have any questions, ask away!

Step 6: Collect data and develop an algorithm - Tracking your bets is the only way to determine if what you're doing is working. You can keep track in a notebook, in a spreadsheet, or with one of the many bet tracking providers out there, but you have to do it if you want to be successful. - Don't be too quick to change things up if something doesn't seem to be working. Luck--good and bad--is an unavoidable and unpredictable part of betting. Even if you have the best possible model you'll still experience downswings. You'll have days where your model picks all the guys who took the first shots, and they'll all miss. And you'll have days where you only have 2 or 3 guys even get a look, and they'll all hit. - Develop an algorithm on things that make sense. A simple algorithm would be: Players with a Kelly criterion bet of 1 unit or higher. That makes sense, because the higher the bet, the higher the value (bigger edge). An algorithm that doesn't make sense is: Players with odds between +500 and +850 who have two m's in their name. There's no reason to think that would influence their probability to hit a first basket. - Once you've developed an algorithm, track it for at least 10 to 15 games. Upswings or downswings can last a lot longer, but that should give you some idea whether or not your algorithm is working.

In case you missed my post this morning, I'm retiring from first basket bets and data. Judging from some of the comments I've received, a few of you are interested in how my model works and how to approach handicapping first basket bets in general. I'm not an expert by any means, but I'm happy to share what I know (or think). I'll try to organize this as simply as possible. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask. Thread following...