Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut

45 posts

Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut

Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut

@Allen___27

Taipei City, Taiwan 参加日 Şubat 2017
38 フォロー中39 フォロワー
Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
When you run an options book with lots of positions it can get messy. The way pros think about a portfolio is by aggregating the Greeks 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝘁𝗮 : your directional exposure. Longs vs shorts. Maybe some beta adjustment. You're paid to be right on direction. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗮 : your decay-harvesting trades. Calendars, flies, strangles. You're paid for time passing inside a range. 𝗩𝗲𝗴𝗮: your volatility exposures. VIX trades, dispersion, vol of vol. You're paid when implied moves a certain way. Some times these Greeks can work in opposing directions. For example, you might be bet NET long DELTA but you are also long VEGA, so in a rally the PNLs may work against each other. There will also be scenarios where they work in the same direction. Understanding this interplay between how the Greeks are likely to behave across many scenarios it what allows you to capture edge over time. The recent QQQ rally in second half of April was a good example where being long Vol and long Delta had a ton of alpha because you were protected in the sell off but crushed it on the rally because the vol performed so well in the move.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Let me tell you why put condors crush outright shorts on overextended trends... You think the move is overcooked. You want short exposure. You're tempted to buy a put or short the underlying. Both will probably bleed you out before the move comes. Here's why the put condor wins on extended trends. Buying an outright put: you buy VEGA on a name where vol is already elevated after the explosive rally. Every day the trend continues, the THETA bleeds and even if you're directionally right the vol may reset back down. Shorting the stock: defined cost in margin, undefined cost in stress. Every higher print costs you. You'll cover at the worst possible time. The put condor: you buy a put closer to spot, sell two puts at your target zone, buy a wing below to define risk. The structure is relatively cheap because you're selling the higher downside vol. Your max loss is the small debit. Your max gain shows up if the stock pulls back into your target zone, which is exactly where you thought it would go. You're not betting on the ultimate top. You're betting on a retracement to a support zone. You're buying time for your thesis to work. The risk is that it works too soon and you have to wait to earn THETA in the zone. There is always a trade of in options, you just need to decide which one suits you best.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
This is one of the most reliable post-earnings setups in the market, and it's invisible to anyone not watching the skew. Setup: a stock is rallying into earnings. Skew shifts hard toward calls. Implied vol on upside strikes is bid. Retail and momentum funds are piling into upside calls. What's happening underneath: dealers are short those calls. To hedge, they buy stock. Lots of it. The stock keeps grinding higher, partly because of the dealer demand. Earnings prints. Even if the number is decent, vol gets smashed. That's mechanical — earnings vol always resets. Now the dealers have a problem. The calls they're short have just lost their Greeks. The delta on those calls is collapsing ... so what was a 30-delta call yesterday is a 10-delta call this morning. The stock they bought to hedge those calls? They no longer need it. So they sell. If the earnings number wasn't strong enough to push the stock through those call strikes and keep the deltas alive, the unwind cascades. Vol crushed. Delta crushed. Dealer hedges dumped into the tape. The stock rolls over even though the report wasn't bad. This is why "good earnings" stocks sometimes drop 8% the next day. It isn't the news. It's the structural unwind. If you see skew piling into upside before a print, you know the setup is loaded. Whether to fade it is a separate question. But the mechanics are real, and shows up over and over. We saw it with $TSLA and are seeing it with $MSFT overnight.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Retail buys puts before earnings. Hedge funds buy put flies. Here's the gap. Outright put: you're long vol. Vol gets smashed on the print. Even if the stock drops 5%, the vol crush eats most of your gain. The put goes up on delta and down on vega. The two cancel. Put fly: you're long one put closer to spot, short two puts at your target zone, long one put below. You're net short vol on the structure. When vol gets smashed on earnings, the structure benefits from the crush instead of fighting it. Roughly. On a typical earnings, an outright put might cost you a few percent of stock notional. A well-built put fly costs a fraction of that. If the stock lands inside your target zone, the structure is built to pay multiples of the debit. If the stock blasts through, the fly caps your gain and the outright put pays more. So the question isn't "which is better." It's "what's the trade?" If you think the move will be roughly the implied move and you have a target zone, the fly. If you think the move will be 2x implied and you don't know where it lands, the put. Most earnings moves are inside or near implied. That's why the fly wins more often. The vol reset works for it instead of against it. That's the structural edge of the fly and why it's one of my preferred earnings trade expressions.
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Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Sitting on cash is often frowned upon. When you're running other people's money it's almost impossible. You're paid to be invested. I'm glad I only run my own money these days. No more pressure to take risk that doesn't make sense. No more taps on the shoulder at the worst possible time. I was riding the $INTC and $TSM waves for a while. Now I'm out of most of my exposure and have added some tactical put condors in SMH to Jun26. With market breadth looking so poor and from Meca-cap earnings yesterday only $GOOG finishing up. I'm happy to be raising a bit of cash here. April was a good month, I'd rather not give it all back in May!
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Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut がリツイート
Per Brorson Lutzen
Per Brorson Lutzen@Plutzen·
First driving lesson today—stumbled over clutch control, but nailed parallel parking on the 3rd try! Grinning like a fool, already counting days till next class
Per Brorson Lutzen tweet media
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Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut がリツイート
Lucas Profeta
Lucas Profeta@Profeta_Bomber·
Unboxed my latest haul! Fresh skincare, a cute notebook, and a surprise mini lip balm—all safely arrived. Can’t wait to test the serum tonight! #Unboxing #Haul #NewFinds
Lucas Profeta tweet media
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Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut
Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut@Allen___27·
Scent of crispy fried dough + sweet red bean paste = you at this street stall Grab a warm pancake—street food joy in every bite!
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Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut
Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut@Allen___27·
Spilled my coffee this morning—stranger handed me a clean napkin + warm smile. Small acts, big heart.
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Irnren Lekha | Oqtlcnrs Ihslgut がリツイート
john do
john do@papakokin·
"Less water = happy snake plant! Let soil dry completely between waterings (1-2x/month indoors). Bright indirect light = lush growth. Low-maintenance win for busy plant parents! #PlantParentHacks #SnakePlantLove"
john do tweet media
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