Asset Alchemist

My guess for week ahead reaction post tariffs: - $TLT and $GLD bid. - Crypto: $BTC probably hold up well, $ETH $XRP too; Most <$5bn crypto dead-cat bounce at best. - Equities: $KWEB bid; $DJI $SPX offer; $QQQ choppy, but probably a bid excluding $NVDA.

If you missed the wick, don't force trades. The better options are: 1. Wick refill - rebidding supports as the market drifts back towards the bottom ~1/3 of the wick. 2. Reclaim - buying strength away from the wick, reducing the likelihood that it drifts back to the low and allowing you to define your risk using the reclaimed level (closer to you), not the wick itself (invalidation 1000 miles away). In simple terms: you want to be doing business close to the wick, or far away from it at a different level. Don't diddle in the middle.

Just a piece of advice here for people trying to buy the dip When we see liquidations of this magnitude, there’s a couple of things that often happen: 1) The classic v shape reversal higher only really happens in a perp driven cascade due to high funding rates in a structurally bullish trend 2) During major wipeouts like this, we typically see the main move down, and then settle like 40% above wherever the bottom wick was. Then a small bounce from shorts covering, and then chop around for a while 3) we then typically see a retest of that bottom wick from the initial cascade in the coming days I say all that to say: take a deep breath. You don’t need to throw everything in one big hero trade. You will have plenty of time to buy this wipeout and capitulation. Hope everyone’s doin alright!

Kneejerk down, but guessing $QQQ $KWEB will catch a bid through the week on some combination of narratives: 🔸2H24 left tail was 20% universal 60% CN, so 10% is relatively light. 🔸Removal of de minimis exemption and 10% tariff will probably be easily absorbed by US consumers and CN exporters. Alternatives will still not be more competitive (e.g. CN EVs vs Teslas after tariffs). 🔸Focus less directly on CN, albeit indirect trade flows via MX CA are targets now. 🔸$KWEB US sales exposure is small. Have not run numbers in a while but probably single digit. 🔸Rates lower a positive for long duration $QQQ, which is far less exposed to tariffs too. 🔸Fed won't turn hawkish on supply/tariff-driven inflation, and will probably be looking through to potential economic slowdown. That being said, things will look bad for US when it appears these nations aren't going to backdown. imo, particularly unlikely in CA's case.

Crypto market cap table from the 2021 BTC peak. - Half the tickers are no longer top 100 (many probably worthless). - 39 are still top 100 but negative price change. - 10 are still top 100 with positive price change (ex-USD): $BTC $BNB $XRP $DOGE $XLM $TRX $DAI $LEO $OKB $XDC