Blue Velvet Capital

@DarioAmodei writes (wonderful essay btw): "I disagree with the notion of AI misalignment being inevitable from first principles." Dario, would you disagree that (1) AI is evolving, and (2) "misaligned AI" is equivalent to "AI that is mostly aligned with its own survival"?

$CCCM Might be beating a dead horse here, but after digesting everything, wanted to chime in. Also happy to host a Spaces w/ @vik_mittal talk about the deal, SPACs broadly, and crypto transactions we’re seeing (disclosure: I’m not a crypto guy). The thesis is simple: BTC treasury names have been trading at 1.5–3.0x NAV. That creates real value opportunities. We’ve seen it before—PIPEs like $UPXI and $SBET, and $CEP —where investors came in around 1.0x NAV ($10 in CEP’s case). The SPAC wrinkle: The promote (and @APompliano's piece) creates real dilution. To get PIPE investors in at ~1.1x NAV, they raised at $8.00 and added a $13 convert (1.7x NAV). This leaves public holders paying: 1.33x NAV @ $10 1.4x @ $10.50 (pre-FT leak) 2.1x @ $15.76 (pre-announcement pop, although ripped into end of day) BTC exposure: Majority goes to the PIPE, which makes sense—they're the ones immediately buying BTC. Trust account stays in cash, so it only gets ~11% of the upside if BTC runs. Execution of announcement was terrible. The $8 PIPE price should’ve been front and center and the presentation immediately released. I didn’t feel comfortable selling stock, and many funds were restricted until the investor deck hit. Negative Technical Dynamic There was significant overlap between IPO and wall-crossed investors, investors who usually lighten up at unit split. These investors are likely sellers at this point. Only ~13M shares traded since announcement, so float still needs to turn. Interesting side note: In another SPAC deal leak, the PIPE price wasn’t disclosed - and considering this transaction that would have been a critical part of the leak. Why don’t arbs raise PIPEs for every SPAC above trust? Risk is totally different. Here, I take real BTC downside risk, no liquidity, and can’t margin the position. Our average PIPE is ~10% of our SPAC sizing—this isn’t the same. Everyone’s frustrated. Losses hurt. Emotions are high. So the only real question is: Where do we go from here? You either believe BTC treasuries trade at 1.5–3.0x NAV (implying $11.25–$22.50 stock), or you don’t. Trust has ~$10.04, heading to $10.25 by year-end. If you’re bullish BTC, the skew is compelling. One final note on the warrants: 5-year levered BTC vol is high. Optionality is meaningful. Disclosure: we are long common and warrants, and participated in the PIPE (at 10% of our usual SPAC position size)