Penn Wharton Budget Model

Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-09-s…

We project that Social Security's OASI Trust Fund will deplete in 2032. We consider five reform options that vary in the amount of tax increases and benefit cuts and show how traditional analysis yields very different — even opposite — implications from more comprehensive modeling.

For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/… For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/data-interacti…

Read the full report here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-16-e…

We estimate an effective tariff rate of 10.3 percent through January 2026. We project that replacing the IEEPA tariffs with a new 10% global tariff rate lowers the ETR to 7.7 percent on a bias-corrected basis.

Also check out our analysis of each Senator's full proposal: KYPA: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-11-t… WATCA: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-16-w…

Two recent Senate proposals — Senator Booker's KYPA and Senator Van Hollen's WATCA — widen the zero tax bracket with two different approaches, illustrating how mechanism determines cost, targeting, and distortions. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-16-d…

Senator Van Hollen's Working Americans' Tax Cut Act pairs a new alternative maximum tax for low- and middle-income filers with a graduated millionaire surtax, increasing federal revenue by $264 billion over a decade. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-16-w…

We estimate that the Keep Your Pay Act proposed by Senator Cory Booker reduces federal revenues by up to $6.4 trillion over a decade. Households earning $100,000–$200,000 receive the largest tax cuts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-11-t…

We analyze how employers could exploit DHS' new H-1B lottery rules by reclassifying positions into closely related occupations with lower prevailing wages to increase their chance of selection. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-03-04-h…

(3/3) For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/4/…

(2/3) For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/…

PWBM has produced up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025 based on updated trade and tariff data recently released by the USITC. (1/3) See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/9/…

(2/2) Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive. Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/9/…

PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. (1/2)

(2/2) AI’s boost to 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/9/…

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. (1/2)