固定されたツイート
There's no AI bubble.
The real bubble is the century-long economic illusion we've built around "bullshit jobs" – those pointless, under-optimized white-collar roles that Graeber called "adult daycare" (estimates: 20–50% of Western jobs are socially meaningless, kept alive to sustain hierarchies and consumer spending).
These jobs aren't productive; they're the glue holding up massive purchasing power: salaries → credit → Nike sneakers, suburban houses, pick-up trucks, endless consumption. The economy runs on people doing semi-intellectual tasks at huge labor cost, then spending it all (mostly on debt).
Enter AI: it doesn't just automate tasks—it exposes and eliminates the inefficiency at scale. When those "adult daycare" jobs vanish en masse (already starting with tech layoffs), the consumer demand engine stalls hard.
Citrini predicts -38% on the S&P by 2028 in their dystopian scenario. But if this is the popping of the real structural bubble (not just AI hype), we're looking at something much uglier: a Nasdaq-style wipeout.
Dot-com crash: -78% peak-to-trough.
This could be deeper—because it's not speculative froth; it's the foundation of post-industrial Western growth crumbling.
Layoffs → collapsing demand → more AI acceleration → debt-deflation spiral (Fisher on steroids) → forced sales, hoarding, defaults.
No soft landing. No quick rebound. Just a brutal reset.
The music was never real. It was subsidized bullshit.
#AI #Deflation
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