Amit Singh

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 8 days. Everyone thinks this is about oil. This is about what oil becomes. 92% of the world's sulfur comes from refining oil and gas. Close the Strait of Hormuz and you don't just lose 20 million barrels of crude per day. You lose the feedstock for sulfuric acid, the single most produced chemical on Earth. Sulfuric acid is how we extract copper. It's how we extract cobalt. Without it, you can't make transformers, EV batteries, or the substrates inside every data center on the planet. One chemical, made from one feedstock, shipped through one chokepoint. The cascade goes further: Qatar ships 30% of Taiwan's liquefied natural gas through Hormuz. Taiwan has 11 days of reserves left. TSMC, the company that makes 90% of the world's advanced chips, draws 8.9% of Taiwan's total electricity. No gas, no power, no chips. Then food. 33% of the world's nitrogen fertilizer feedstock moves through the Strait. Half of all humans alive today exist because of synthetic nitrogen. Sulfur, semiconductors, food. That makes three supply chains, one 21-nautical-mile chokepoint, and zero domestic alternatives at scale.

Here’s a clear explanation of why Trump attacked Iran, and why I think the war will end soon. The war isn't about nuclear weapons. It's not about helping the Iranian people. It’s not about doing Israel’s bidding. And it's not about Iran being a threat to the U.S. It's about China. China imports 45-57% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has the capacity to shut it down. A U.S.-aligned Iran means an Iran that would choke off that strait if there's ever a real power struggle between Washington and Beijing. And there already is one. The U.S. and China have been locked in a tariff war for over a year now. Also remember when China threatened export controls on rare earths, encompassing any company anywhere in the world that uses Chinese rare earths? Yes, China essentially said that any company that uses their rare earths (China refines 85-90% of the world’s supply) must seek their permission before exporting their products. This means if a German manufacturer uses rare earths fro China to create chips for American companies, China can block the export of these chips. That’s how much leverage China has over the U.S., and that’s dangerous, especially if China finally decides to reunify with Taiwan. So controlling the Strait of Hormuz becomes critical for the U.S. It's the same reason Trump wants China out of the Panama Canal. The same reason Venezuela matters. The same reason he's eyeing Greenland, where shipping routes to China pass through melting Arctic ice. Energy is everything now. The AI arms race is the most important strategic competition on the planet. Limiting China's access to energy is how the U.S. wins that race, and anyone who believes in freedom and democracy should want America to win. China is investing heavily in domestic energy, building nuclear reactors, solar farms, wind power. They're leapfrogging the rest of the world. But they still import the majority of their oil. And a significant chunk of it comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran was reportedly nearing a deal for supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from China, which would make it easier for Iran to threaten shipping in the Strait and strike U.S. naval vessels. That accelerated the timeline. Trump's comment today about doing in Iran what he did in Venezuela makes perfect sense in this context. He wants influence over who comes next. A regime that's workable for Washington. If he succeeds, this would be a massive strategic win for the U.S. and for Trump.

🇺🇸🇷🇺 Russia FM says whenever the U.S. and its allies get involved, things get worse. He says Iraq, Syria, and Libya were destroyed, and now the same is happening with Iran. He’s pointing the finger directly.

It took about a month in 2020 for the world to realise the economic impact of Covid and lockdowns already happening in Asia. This chart is a great representation of the magnitude of today’s oil shock going to hit the western economies very soon.