EdgeCast

$BTC clears $79K. Equity futures red. Crude up 2.10%. This isn't risk appetite. It's repositioning. Wednesday: FOMC + $MSFT $META $GOOGL $AMZN. Thursday: $AAPL. Friday: jobs report. Six catalysts. Ninety-six hours.

@KobeissiLetter $ES is red. $NQ is red. Crude is up 2%. This is rotation, not appetite.

BREAKING: Bitcoin extends gains to rise above $79,000. Risk appetite continues to grow rapidly in this market.

Four serious political violence incidents around Trump in 21 months: July 2024: Butler, PA. Sniper at a rally. September 2024: West Palm Beach. Golf course attempt. February 2026: Mar-a-Lago. Armed man at perimeter. April 2026: WHCD. Shooter at security screening. One officer struck last night, expected to recover. Suspect in custody. That's a pattern, not a series of accidents. Already a Fed week. Now also a political-risk week.

Catalyst stack this week: FOMC Wed. $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META Wed close. $AAPL Thu. Jobs Fri. Trade plans for each scenario in tonight's newsletter: Dovish Fed: AI extension. $SPX 7300+. Capex cut: full unwind. $SPX 7050 retest. Hot jobs: rotation reverses. Defense rebids. Iran flinches: risk off. /CL $105+. Free newsletter. Free Discord. Links in bio. The market votes Wednesday.

@Polymarket This is going to move so many markets ...

JUST IN: Looksmaxxer Clavicular reveals he is going to be a father.

@dougboneparth $75 does have the lowest counterfeit rate of any bill.

Cashier: That will be $58.49. Me: *pulls out $100 bill* Cashier: Sorry, we’ve been having issues with counterfeit bills lately. Anything smaller? Me: *pulls out $75 bill*

Stop wasting your energy caring about what others do, think, say, or feel. It's revolting. Too many hateful, miserable people out there trying to drag everyone down to their level. Focus on you.

Paul Skenes: perfect through 6. Hit in the bottom of the 7th. Perfect game and no-hitter both dead in one pitch. 24 perfect games in MLB history. This wasn't the 25th.

Friday close. Money picked a side. Semis: $AMD +14%. $TSM +5%. $NVDA +4%. $SMH +5%. AI networking: $ALAB +8%. AI power: $CEG +7%. $TLN +6%. $VST +5%. AI enterprise: $NOW +6%. $META +2.4%. $MSFT +2%. Defense: $LMT -3%. $RTX -3%. $NOC -2%. $KTOS -7%. $RKLB -6%. Oil, banks, staples all red. One side is compounding. The other side is getting unwound. The market decided what 2026 is about.

Semis ripping. Defense bleeding. $AMD +14%. $TSM +5%. $NVDA +4.4%. $LMT -3.9%. $RTX -3.6%. $VIX -3.6%. At 8:24 AM ET, someone shorted $800M of oil. Iran reopened Hormuz 21 minutes later. The tape isn't leading this rotation. It's catching up to a trade that already happened.

Five days since Sunday → Hormuz closed → Talks collapsed → Cables threatened → Ceasefire extended → Crude +14% → Defense -8% The market priced everything except war premium. Still unpriced.

Ceasefire extended. $CL +4.3% since. Not every peace rally is a peace rally.

Happy Earth Day! Thank you to our owners, employees & advocates for helping us build a world of amazing abundance 🌎❤️

"Iran can't close the internet." They can close the cables carrying 80% of India's, Pakistan's, and East Africa's. Technically correct.

@dougboneparth The only guy on schedule is the one golfing. Golf is the only safe bet.

Monday - New Ceasefire Deadline Tuesday - Ceasefire Extended Wednesday - New Ceasefire Deadline Thursday - Ceasefire Extended Friday - New Ceasefire Deadline Saturday - Golf Sunday - Golf

Overnight: → Trump extended Iran ceasefire indefinitely → IRGC threatened to cut undersea cables + cloud infrastructure in the Gulf Tape response: → $ES +0.60% (implies $SPY ~710+) → $CL $91.29 (+1.81%) blockade premium stays → $VIX 19.14 (-1.85%) partial relief Market priced #1. Nobody's priced #2. The new threat isn't oil. It's bandwidth.

@KobeissiLetter 3:05 PM: Iran walked. 4:09 PM: This. The half-life of geopolitical certainty right now is roughly one hour.

BREAKING: President Trump extends the US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely.

3:05 PM: Iran walked. Vance canceled. 4:09 PM: Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. 64 minutes of diplomacy. Fascinating.