ElectionsAddict

8.9K posts

ElectionsAddict

ElectionsAddict

@ElectionsAddict

Politics/Elections. Every D is better than any R. Supporter of ALL Democrats, Big tent party advocate, Pragmatic progressive, Hate purity tests. #VoteBlue

参加日 Mayıs 2023
771 フォロー中1.5K フォロワー
固定されたツイート
ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
My election theory First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls + also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Losers complain, winners win. Republicans fucked around and now they’re finding out. 10-1.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
@SpecialPuppy1 1) Republicans gave up in CA. 2) TX already passed their redraw into law, so the average voter in CA saw the referendum as righting a wrong already committed by the opposition, wanted to balance the scale. Way easier to get voters to go along with that argument.
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Special Puppy 🧦🐵
Special Puppy 🧦🐵@SpecialPuppy1·
Why did CA’s redistricting referendum perform so much better than VA’s? CA is much bluer obviously but even taking that into account, CA’s did way better
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
@VinkemesMom @fiona_webster22 What other House race was called for Democrats? Sorry, I must have missed it. I can only use WaPo maps because of NYT paywall. This is what my screen looks like, I guess it’s a bit behind then.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
@dnna1993 I’m not going to try to put sugar on a turd and try to convince you it’s a yummy pizza. I’m going to tell you the truth when it comes to election results. Good OR bad. That’s what y’all deserve! ❤️
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
I’m going to be straight with y’all because you deserve that. In rural areas fully or near fully counted, Trump is matching or exceeding his 2020 margins. In suburban and urban areas I’m seeing Harris matching or exceeding Biden’s 2020 margins. My bet is latter matters most.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
@PolyglotFella The whole “wait until 90% is counted” should be attached to every tweet I make.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
If he isn’t already, Connecticut Dave is moving back to his home state.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Not going to lie, I did a double take 😂
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
The first sign of a suburban GOP collapse? Stay tuned for more results!
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Holy crap! Boone County, IN (suburb surrounding Indianapolis) 91% counted Trump 54.4 🔴 Harris 43.9 🔵 2020: Trump 58.1 🔴 Biden 39.6 🔵 Shift: D+8 🔵
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
If Harris and Democrats win tonight, their spending on “it’s the economy, stupid” messaging as the GOP ranted about culture war stuff will be a big reason why. newrepublic.com/article/187950…
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
For those who may not understand, US voters are by far the most conservative on immigration topic, than any other issue. It was 50/50 for “deport all immigrants” polls over the summer and fall. So either everyone changed their mind or more Democrats turned out than expected.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Ok, so why do I think this will happen? Here’s a 40 tweet research thread breaking down this theory, but the TLDR is pollsters are missing Democratic voters. Add in a net favorable viewed politician Harris + you have potent recipe to create a wave 🌊 x.com/ElectionsAddic…
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict

My election theory First off, I have no way to actually prove it, but I think it’s one of very few possibilities that explains elections from 2016-2024, polls + also difference between Obama vs Trump/Biden years. Short answer: it’s “the resistance”, long answer, a thread 🧵 /1

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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Cook Political 8-5 left 🔵 Sabato 27-13 left 🔵 Inside Elections 22-9 left 🔵 Did they expand battlefield? Yes. Democrats, Republicans spending millions of dollars in IN Gov, TX/FL/NE Sen + Trump won House districts in last stretch. If both parties invest, both see it winnable.
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ElectionsAddict
ElectionsAddict@ElectionsAddict·
Election Eve Megathread! I’m predicting a wave, here’s why 🧵👇 First: What is wave election? It’s when 1 party does 5+ points better than opponents, getting big base turnout, vast majority undecided, that overwhelms opposition. 2008, 2010, 2014 + 2018 were waves. 2 D’s, 2 R’s.
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@SpecialPuppy1 @VinkemesMom @dnna1993 @PolyglotFella @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano