FinancialOSINT

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FinancialOSINT

FinancialOSINT

@FinancialOSINT

Helping retail investors avoid noise and make informed decisions. Macroeconomics and geopolitics guide my strategies, with OSINT as a core research input.

Tel Aviv, Israel 参加日 Kasım 2023
2 フォロー中87 フォロワー
FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
If you missed out on the $EQNR bull rush, then you should definitely check out $VOW (VOW3 specifically). I wrote about it here in more detail: substack.com/home/post/p-19…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
I'm getting sick and tired of scammers who instantly block you when you call them out on their bullshit. $EWY wasn't mispriced. The reason IV is rising is that specific OTM options are being bought by gullible retail. This idiot is making money off your stupidity.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
@Osint613 You're wrong, odds it's this weekend are high, I'm not sure who you know since we're both Israeli, but I'm guessing I know a bit more than you. Nothing definitive, but there might be some action soon.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$AXTI is quite literally the most retarded stock I've ever witnessed. Pumped up by a famous moron from WSB. Because of low float, it's capable of jumping +30% on really bad earnings that disproved the WSB Moron's DD. Proof we're in a bubble.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
And this is why you don't listen to mor*ns like @aleabitoreddit when it comes to investing. $AXTI was bullshit from the beginning. And I mention this now because the last time it tanked from its (then) ATH he came up with an excuse: "It will go big next time" It won't.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$LUNR – 2 days ago, two new job openings were posted on LinkedIn. Both positions are for the LTV. What are the odds that the deal is done?
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
I finally got around to writing about $EQNR. Here is the TLDR: A regional war involving Iran might cause natural gas prices to rise in the EU. It is a bit more complicated under the hood, so here is the short write-up: financialosint.substack.com/p/natural-gas-…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$INTC's Panther Lake laptops are absolutely dominating in terms of battery efficiency. Can't wait to get my hands on one. While I don't believe it will affect the stock price in the short term, it definitely increases the odds of the $AAPL rumors being true.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$MSFT is currently bragging about their new ASIC chip: Maia 200. I had hoped it would be built on Intel's 18A node, but it makes sense that they opted for TSMC's process, where more engineers are experienced. TL;DR: It's the next "TPU". blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/01/2…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
I generally still recommend $GLD because of the looming war with Iran. But I also recommend a different stock: $EQNR. This is generally a bet on rising natural gas prices for the EU due to the conflict. I'll write a Substack post on this soon.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
As mentioned on my Substack, a rapid continuation of the $GLD rush was expected. The interesting part is that one of the main catalysts hasn’t yet fully materialized, leading me to believe that only partial pricing in of recent and upcoming events has occurred. $GDX $GLD $GDXU
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
@TheHonestTicker @awakenowzone They were quite literally talking about it the entire quarter. It's just speculators that drove the price up. A company turnaround for such a giant like $INTC takes time. The fact that they managed to straighten the balance sheets in less than a year is already a bullish sign.
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A2THEZ
A2THEZ@awakenowzone·
📣 INTEL THESIS IS SOLID 📣 Putting my money where my mouth is and making money off of it. Sold $45 Put for 03/19/2027 for $10K. Breakeven is $35… this is a no brainer. LETS GO! $INTC
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
Last Friday, I bought $GLD calls, mostly because I expected negative catalysts related to Greenland. They returned 5x. Today at market open, I opened long positions again. You can read more about it here: financialosint.substack.com/p/weekend-gld-…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
@fundaai $AXTI Are you saying that a $200M market has barely any impact on the industry vs a $4B Silicone photonics industry? Shocker, but good luck convincing the gullible following of @aleabito. Good job by the way, glad that more people are starting to understand this.
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FundaAI
FundaAI@FundaAI·
Research| $AXTI: Indium Phosphide (InP), Export Controls, and the Optical Communications Value Chain A Follow-Up Discussion on How to Interpret the Real Impact In recent weeks, market discussion around China’s export controls on certain critical materials—including indium and indium phosphide—has intensified and is often interpreted as a potential negative for the optical communications value chain. The concern typically starts from the fact that indium phosphide is a core material for high-end optical communication lasers, and is then extrapolated to potential impacts on midstream laser manufacturers such as Lumentum and Coherent. However, when viewed through the lens of the actual manufacturing process for InP-based lasers, the global distribution of supply and epitaxy capacity, and the practical operation of each segment of the value chain, the practical impact of export controls appears more limited than commonly assumed. Detailed Report open.substack.com/pub/fundaai/p/…
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FundaAI@FundaAI

Research| $AXTI: New Rare-Earth Export Restrictions Have a Very Limited Impact on the Global Optical Communications Industry Over the past week, news flow around “critical minerals” and “dual-use material” export reviews has intensified meaningfully. The market has quickly stitched together several fundamentally different signals into a single narrative: escalating geopolitics will materially raise supply risk across the optical module value chain—first expressed in the sharp pullback of leading optical component equities. As of the U.S. market session on January 9, Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR) were down approximately 11% and 9.6%, respectively. Over the same period, upstream materials supplier AXT (AXTI) guided down its 4Q25 revenue outlook, explicitly attributing the revision to fewer-than-expected export licenses for indium phosphide (InP) granted by China’s Ministry of Commerce. Because InP is a core input for EMLs, CW lasers, and tunable lasers used in long-haul communications, investors have extrapolated this development into a broader negative read-through for global optical communications. The market’s concerns about China’s rare-earth/critical-materials export restrictions largely fall into two buckets: -Indium is the key precursor for InP substrates. China accounts for more than 65% of global indium exports, which could constrain non-China InP substrate manufacturers—primarily Sumitomo, JX Advanced Metals, and Coherent—and thereby disrupt the broader optical communications supply chain. -Another major InP substrate manufacturer, AXT, manufactures substrates inside China. While AXT is not constrained in sourcing indium domestically, its exports may be affected, which could in turn impact global optical communications. However, based on our supply-chain checks, China’s recent change “rare-earth export policy” has a very limited practical impact on the optical ecosystem overall. We frame the analysis along two dimensions: Indium and InP substrates. $LITE $COHR $CIEN Detailed Report open.substack.com/pub/fundaai/p/…

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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$LUNR Minibus bill that includes NASA 2026 budget has passed Senate and heads to Trump for signature, probably signs it tonight. Maxar Space LLC (now Lanteris acquired by LUNR) selected as part of Golden Dome
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
I've been asked about $VLN. Hard sell. No imminent growth potential, declining revenue and a niche cyclical market. This should be enough of an argument against any bull case for this. Growth and innovation matters, $VLN doesn't have that. reddit.com/r/FinancialOSI…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
For some reason the image preview is not available from this Substack link, so here is the proof of trade $CRML Bought MAY 15 '26 15C when it dropped to 13.30. The theory was tinfoil-hat-level crazy, but it turned out to be true. I expect short-term volatility.
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
I've made an insane prediction about $CRML and profited from it. The only thing that saddens me is that I didn't manage to publish the article before the events unfolded. You can read about it here: open.substack.com/pub/financialo…
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FinancialOSINT
FinancialOSINT@FinancialOSINT·
$AAPL now confirmed by Trump to be "in bed" with $INTC. This was rumored because $AAPL and $QCOM began hiring engineers with EMIB experience. In this interview, Trump slips and admits Apple partnered with Intel. Taken from r/intelstock. youtu.be/o3iNCi6wE6k?si…
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