🇺🇦🇪🇺 🇮🇹 Paul 🇮🇹 🇪🇺🇺🇦

È stato anche fin troppo buono.

🧵La Russia sta perdendo la guerra. Non nel senso che sta cedendo il territorio conquistato: controlla ancora il 20% dell'Ucraina, e nessuno scenario realistico prevede che l’Ucraina riconquisti tutto nel breve periodo. Ma gli obiettivi dell'invasione erano altri: regime change a Kyiv, smilitarizzazione del paese, distruzione della sua sovranità e trasformazione in uno Stato fantoccio, ricostruzione di una sfera d’influenza russa nell’Europa orientale. Su ciascuno di questi obiettivi, Putin è oggi più lontano dal successo di quanto fosse nel febbraio 2022. Sono passati 1.500 giorni dall'inizio di un'operazione che doveva durarne tre. Da allora, l'Ucraina ha consolidato un'identità nazionale irreversibile, è diventata candidata UE ed è sempre più indispensabile nella futura architettura di sicurezza europea, e ha costruito la più avanzata capacità anti-drone del pianeta. Solo a marzo ha inflitto alla Russia 35.000 perdite (il record dall'inizio della guerra) di cui il 96% con i droni. Un uomo russo su 25 tra 18 e 49 anni è stato ucciso o ferito dall'inizio dell'invasione. È una statistica che andrebbe ripetuta finché non penetra nel dibattito pubblico, perché i suoi effetti - sul mercato del lavoro, sulla struttura demografica e sulla tenuta del contratto sociale russo - sono irreversibili e cumulativi. Nel frattempo, Zelensky firma accordi di difesa decennali con Arabia Saudita, Qatar ed Emirati e apre fabbriche di droni in Europa, mentre specialisti ucraini addestrano le forze armate del Golfo a fare quello che gli americani non sanno fare: abbattere droni nemici a basso costo. Il dato strategico che il dibattito europeo non ha ancora metabolizzato è che l’Europa ha bisogno dell’Ucraina almeno quanto l’Ucraina ha bisogno dell’Europa. Nessun esercito NATO possiede l’esperienza ucraina nel drone warfare, nella guerra elettronica e nell’innovazione sotto pressione bellica. Chi continua a raccontare la vittoria russa come inevitabile non sta descrivendo la realtà. Sta rilanciando la narrazione del Cremlino, con lo scopo di costruire le premesse per una resa ucraina e per un’Europa più fragile e vulnerabile. Nel nuovo numero della newsletter ho ricostruito il quadro completo, con dati, fonti e aggiornamenti. Il link è nel primo commento.

I am not sure the American military establishment has fully grasped what Trump has actually done here. So let me spell it out in language even a Pentagon procurement officer can understand. Europe has been buying American weapons at a staggering rate. In 2024 alone, US foreign military sales notifications to European countries hit $76 billion. Four times the European average since 2008.  F-35s, missile systems, air defence, ammunition. All of it American. All of it coming with decades of service contracts, maintenance agreements, spare parts, software updates and training programmes worth hundreds of billions more over their operational lifetimes. Between 2020 and 2024, the United States supplied 64 percent of all European weapons imports.  That is now over. Europe has an $860 billion defence plan, and American contractors are being frozen out. The goal is 80 percent of all military purchases from European factories by 2030.  Airbus. Rheinmetall. KNDS. Saab. Leonardo. BAE Systems. They are about to receive the largest order book in the history of European defence industry. Because Trump made it politically impossible for any European government to keep writing cheques to Washington. Some European governments have discussed worries that the Pentagon could remotely disable American F-35 fighters or impose restrictions on how US weapons can be used.  When your supplier is also threatening to annex your allies, that is not paranoia. That is basic procurement logic. Trump set out to make America great again. He has succeeded magnificently. For Rheinmetall. Gandalv / @Microinteracti1

One month after starting the war in Iran, this is the statement of the President of the United States on Easter Sunday. These are the ravings of a dangerous and mentally unbalanced individual. Congress has got to act NOW. End this war.

Why Meloni’s Gulf move was smart, timely, and strategically bold. In 90 days, we will assess its effectiveness. On April 3rd, Giorgia Meloni did something intelligent and timely — and it’s worth understanding exactly why. The Strait of Hormuz is partially closed. Oil flows are disrupted. Gas prices across Europe are surging. Qatar’s LNG supplies to Italy have been suspended until at least mid-June. In this scenario, Italy chose to act — fast. Three capitals (Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi). Forty-eight hours. One clear agenda. Meloni became the first EU, G20, and NATO leader to visit the Gulf since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28. It was a precision diplomatic mission, built on decades of relationships that Italy — through ENI, Leonardo, Fincantieri, and a dense network of industrial partnerships — has carefully cultivated across the Arabian Peninsula. The timing gave Italy first-mover advantage. The UAE had already pledged $40 billion in investments in Italy. ENI operates across every country visited. Meloni didn’t arrive empty-handed — she arrived with leverage. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing were positioning themselves as crisis mediators. Italy’s initiative sent a clear signal: Europe can still act with purpose and autonomy. Each capital had its own outcome: security frameworks and oil supply talks in Riyadh; LNG crisis management and ceasefire-channel diplomacy in Doha; five signed strategic agreements — energy, technology, defense, industry — in Abu Dhabi. Meloni tells Trump she disagrees with this war. Interviewed by Italy’s leading national broadcaster, Meloni was unambiguous. The transatlantic alliance between Europe and the United States is fundamental. But good allies, she said, are precisely those who know how to disagree openly. And on this war, she told President Trump directly: Italy does not agree with this conflict. That is a significant statement. It positions Italy neither as a passive follower of Washington nor as an antagonist — but as a sovereign allied voice, capable of loyalty and dissent at the same time. Across the Gulf, where every government is watching Washington’s partners with acute attention, that distinction carries real weight. A note of honesty. None of this means the work is done. Supply commitments are political frameworks, not binding guarantees. Industrial agreements take time to become real contracts. And the fundamental question remains: can Italy back Gulf security, supply defense systems, and still stay out of the conflict? That line may eventually become impossible to hold. The credibility of this diplomacy will be measured on implementation — not on the announcement. In a moment of genuine crisis, Italy chose to act rather than wait. It used its relationships, its industrial network, its diplomatic capital. Was it a risky move? Yes. Was it intelligent? The next 90 days will confirm it. But as of today — yes, it was. @EGIC_

Ex-CIA Director, Petraeus: Russia no longer has the upper hand. Russia heavily outnumbers and outguns Ukraine. It has economy 12 times of Ukraine's. Yet Ukraine's forces are stopping Russians on the frontline. Russians have achieved less than Ukrainians have in last 2 weeks. 1/

Donald Trump votes by mail. But this week, he signed an Executive Order so you can’t. Why? Because he is scared of your power, and he is scared of losing the midterms.

𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗠𝗣'𝗦 𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗢 𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗙𝗧 Donald Trump has spent years selling Americans the same NATO grievance: that the United States is being exploited while Europe gets security on the cheap. It is one of his most effective political lines. It is also one that begins to unravel the moment you examine how NATO's common funding actually works. 𝗔 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 𝗢𝗻 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗱 Every successful grift needs a convincing story. Trump's goes like this: America carries NATO while Europe freeloads. Washington pays the bills. Europeans enjoy the protection. Americans get taken advantage of by allies who should know better. It is compelling. It is endlessly repeatable. And it collapses entirely under scrutiny. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀𝗻'𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗧𝗼 𝗦𝗲𝗲 NATO's common budget is calculated using an agreed formula based on national income. Every member pays according to what their economy can bear. That is the stated principle of the alliance. 𝙃𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙚𝙨: ▪️ The United States - GDP $28.75 trillion contributes $836 million to NATO. ▪️ Germany - GDP $4.69 trillion, one sixth the size of America's contributes $836 million to NATO. ▪️ Britain - GDP $3.69 trillion, one eighth the size of America's contributes $578 million to NATO. That is not burden-sharing. That is the world's largest economy securing the cheapest proportional deal at the table and then spending a decade telling its voters it was being robbed. 𝙂𝙚𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮. 𝙊𝙣𝙚 𝙨𝙞𝙭𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙤𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙨𝙞𝙯𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝘼𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖. 𝙒𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙦𝙪𝙚. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲 If a billionaire and a nurse donate the same amount to charity, the billionaire is not the generous one. The nurse is. The sacrifice is not measured in dollars. It is measured in what those dollars cost. That is NATO. Britain and Germany are the nurse. America is the billionaire - contributing the same amount from a vastly larger fortune, then demanding recognition for its generosity. Proportionally, European allies are carrying a heavier burden than Washington. The burden-sharing argument only works if you deliberately ignore what each country can actually afford. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗜𝗻𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗔 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗜𝘁 𝗔 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘆𝗮𝗹 This arrangement did not happen by accident or oversight. The common funding formula was negotiated, agreed, and signed off by American officials across multiple administrations. Washington sat at the table. Washington accepted the terms. Trump did not inherit an unfair deal. He inherited an exceptionally cheap one - maximum strategic leverage at minimum proportional cost. Rather than acknowledge this, he repackaged a favourable arrangement as exploitation and sold it to his voters as victimhood. 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙩. 𝘿𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙗𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚, 𝙨𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙡𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙛𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮. 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗦𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 NATO delivers something no defence budget can purchase outright legitimate global leadership. The alliance is the institutional framework through which American power is projected, validated, and accepted by the rest of the world. Europe is not simply funding its own defence. It is part-funding the political architecture of American global influence. Meanwhile, European defence budgets are rising sharply in response to genuine Russian aggression - the very threat NATO exists to counter. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝗽𝘁 Germany matches America's contribution from an economy six times smaller. Britain carries a proportionally heavier load from an economy eight times smaller. The United States secured the best deal at the table and built a political career pretending otherwise.

Il British Council non insegnerà più l’inglese in Italia dopo oltre 80 anni. L'istituto culturale, uno dei più importanti al mondo, ha un enorme debito col governo britannico che lo sta costringendo a ridimensionarsi: "Ci concentriamo sui Paesi in via di sviluppo” L'articolo completo di Antonello Guerrera su Repubblica

So basically, ever since NATO refused to dance to Washington's war drums in the Middle East, there has been this lobotomized trend of Americans pushing for their "sweet and all-powerful" country to pull out of NATO to "teach Europe a lesson." It is worth noting that I've seen plenty of room-temperature IQ takes on this platform, but this one right here takes the trophy. Understand that America cannot pull out of NATO because doing so would be tantamount to a high-speed suicide. 1. BASES ARE NOT CHARITY HOUSES: Fact is that, American bases scattered around Europe are not a collection of homeless shelters for soldiers. They are being used by America to project raw power. They are the forward-operating gas stations of American hegemony. Those bases allow the US to protect trade routes and strike anywhere on the planet in a matter of hours. America has the ability to force and bully the world into using the dollar to buy oil today specifically because of these bases. Without these bases acting as drainage pipes around the Persian Gulf, America would not stand a single, solitary chance against Iran. So Americans, understand that you u are not "protecting" the EU; you're squatting in their yard so you can keep your boot on the world’s throat. 2. CLOSE ALL TRADE: Again, even with a rudimentary, fifth-grade knowledge of Economics, it’s not difficult to see that should America decide to close all trade with the EU, Americans will be eating their own shoes within weeks. Cutting the EU off would send the US stock market into an unprecedented nose dive and ensure that the "Made in the USA" sticker becomes a pathetic relic of a bygone era. You’re not "punishing" the Europeans; you’re amputating your own legs here. 3. THE TECH BAN: Refusing to sell military equipment to Europe may sound "alpha" to the Twitter keyboard warriors until you realize that American military industries like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon employ hundreds of thousands of Americans. Closing that market corridor is an automatic sack letter to that entire labor force, which would collapse the US economy overnight. Furthermore, the EU won't just sit there and cry like a baby,they will simply outsource their military equipment from Russia and China, and case closed. The American economy would effectively grind to a halt while your rivals cashed the checks. 4. INTELLIGENCE SHARING: This is the most delusional part of the entire manifesto. Intelligence sharing is a two-way street. If America refuses to share intelligence with the EU, then the EU shuts the blinds on America likewise. If their radar detects Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles from North Korea, China, or Russia heading for US soil, and you've "cut them off," they are not going to pick up the phone either. Before your own local radar can even pick up the signal, half of America’s major cities would already be buried under the rubble. Conclusion: This "Catturd" manifesto is a bluff written by people disconnected from reality who have enjoyed the safety and luxury of a US-led world for so long they’ve forgotten how they got it. You can't be the "greatest nation on earth" while hiding under your bed and refusing to talk to the neighbors. Cutting off the EU is not "America First." It’s America Finishing Last, alone, irrelevant, and blind, while the rest of the world moves on without the dying and outdated empire.

Marco Rubio 2 days ago: “Imagine if Iran funded the well-being of its people, rather than its military” Trump today: “We can’t fund daycare or Medicaid, we need more money for our military” Sometimes the jokes write themselves.

The Denmark detail is the one that should stop people cold. NATO allies had to genuinely war-game shooting down American planes. Some of their military leaders still haven't fully processed having run that exercise. The most popular app in the country identified American products to avoid buying. And now Trump is demanding - his word - those same allies solve the Strait of Hormuz problem his war created. NATO invoked Article 5 once. For us. Their soldiers died in Afghanistan. He told reporters they stayed "a little back." Their governments remember that. They've drawn the conclusions and they aren't reversible.

When you have no cards 😎 Ukraine will propose that the United States sign a peace agreement with Iran, under which the U.S. must completely withdraw its troops from the Persian Gulf, then hold elections in America in 100 days and make Iranian the second official language.

Medvedev: "La Russia non deve più mostrare un atteggiamento tollerante nei confronti dell'adesione all'Unione europea da parte dei suoi vicini, perché potrebbe trasformarsi in un'alleanza militare peggiore della Nato". Smontata nuovamente la narrazione della denazificazione.

@Reazione_Nova NO!

Posso dire che la Russia di Putin non è nemica dell'Italia?

@RicRicciardi INDIFENDIBILE Hai violato coscientemente le regole e dovevi aspettarti la sospensione Si chiama essere adulti e prendersi la responsabilità delle proprie azioni La pretesa impunità è semplicemente un altra forma di fascismo, quello rosso bruno Se lo rifarai spero ti diano 10g

Questo è il governo Meloni: sanzioni a chi ha difeso le istituzioni e la Repubblica antifascista, tirate d'orecchio per Delmastro che ha fatto affari con prestanome della camorra. Noi non ci arrendiamo e continueremo a batterci con sempre più forza.

La #Boldrini e #compagni hanno usato metodi #fascisti per impedire ai "fascisti" di entrare alla #Camera. Poi frignano. E gridano al #fascismo. Ma non sono meravigliosi? #2aprile #2aprile2026

Apperò. Un decreto ad fidanzatam

Getting really bored of MAGA ranting about "freeloading" Europeans. The US does not spend a trillion dollars "on NATO." It spends it on a vast global military empire, with a mere 3.6% going toward their bases in Europe. Meanwhile us "freeloading" Europeans spend $454 billion on our own defence. The "freeloading" story is and always has been a lie to keep Americans angry and Europeans compliant.

"Some say that Ukraine should be grateful for everything. The truth is exactly the opposite. The rest of us should be grateful to Ukraine... All decent people cannot have any doubts about which side to stand on.” - Donald Tusk Prime Minister of Poland Just wow 🫡