Commodities MacGruber

Are you too expensive? Are you too human? 👇 I used to say: Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55+ land great jobs all the time. I don’t say that anymore. The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT. I'll call it for what it is: • They make too much • They’re not AI-native • They lead people... now replaced by dashboards That’s the new layoff filter. The stats are just as brutal: - Avg job hunt at 55+? 26 weeks - Avg pay cut? 11% - Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement” HR’s seriously broken. Recruiting? Mostly useless. I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered. If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.

I'm going to jinx it but $NAMM is currently up 45% AH This is a wildly shorted name w/a cost to borrow on IB floating b/t 100-200% Given the timing of this move, I think someone is going to nuke the shorts next week 2026 peak = $7.42 Current MC $115M Producing gold miner

1,000!

After today’s news that new home sales collapsed by -6.2% in April to a three-month low of 622k annualized units, I must observe that it really says something about the state of the U.S. residential real estate market that they are lower now than they were in late 2007, when the unexpected housing-led recession began to take hold.

Gavin Baker is one of the best tech investors alive and he explains why the AI cycle might actually avoid a bubble. Every major technology in history ended in a bubble. Railroads, canals, the internet and even the PC. Every single one. The pattern is always the same: 1. Investors get excited about a genuine breakthrough 2. Diversity of opinion breaks down 3. Everyone converges on the same thesis 4. Valuations disconnect from reality and then it collapses. But Baker thinks AI is different this time and that's because of a physical constraint that no past technology ever had: Watts and wafers. TSMC is run by what he calls "flinty old men and women" who view themselves as the guardians of the most important institution in Taiwan. Jensen Huang flies to Taipei every three months and pushes them to double or triple capacity. They expand about 5%. Here's Baker's math: If TSMC actually gave Jensen what he wanted, Nvidia could probably sell $1.5 to $2 trillion worth of chips next year. He really believes that. The demand is there. But a boom that size would almost certainly end in a bust. And a bust is catastrophic for TSMC. So TSMC's conservatism isn't a bottleneck. It's a release valve. A real-world physical constraint that enforces discipline on the whole cycle and prevents the kind of overbuilding that turned the internet boom into the dot-com crash. Baker believes TSMC is the key reason why we won't have an AI bubble.

We should get some interesting $PENG nuggets from $DELL earnings call