Graham Watkins | Watkins Advisory

It Takes More Than Technology open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins/p…

Most socio‑economic systems stay stable for decades. Change comes in short bursts after shocks—if coalitions, vision, and institutions align. Read. open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins/p…

Between 1950 and 1970, Nicaragua grew 5–7% a year. By 1979, the regime that ran that growth was gone. How one of Latin America's fastest growth runs quietly built the fractures that brought it down — and what today's LAC policymakers should learn. techrevlac.org/blog/nicaragua…

Can a country grow rapidly and still end up weaker? Honduras, 1913–1933, suggests yes. A new piece on enclave growth, concession design, and the policy levers that separate lock-in from lasting development. techrevlac.org/blog/export-en…

This case study looks at how timing, migration shocks, commodity cycles, and weak institutions turned abundance into an independence trap—with lessons for today’s resource, nearshoring, and green‑transition booms across Latin America and the Caribbean techrevlac.org/en/blog/when-m…

The @WorldBankGroup's chief economist, @IndermitGill, recently acknowledged that three decades of its advice against industrial policy "has the practical value of a floppy disk today." This shift in thinking is significant. The global economy cannot run on better-targeted versions of the same approach, it needs a new operating system entirely. My new piece for @ForeignPolicy on what a progressive multilateralism requires. LINK IN NEXT POST

For policymakers, the priority is not choosing between markets and the state. It is designing the coalitions, institutions, and sequenced interventions that can shift market incentives durably. Architects of Markets open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins/p…

When mahogany ran out: how Belize rebuilt its economy — and what the Caribbean hasn’t finished learning. New institutions, realigned capital, and trade arrangements made sugar scalable at speed. techrevlac.org/blog/when-maho…

Closing the Diffusion Gap open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins/p…

Barbados's experience demonstrates how a deliberate shift toward services and exports can underpin sustained growth without severe social disruption. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/from-su…

Spreading Successful Ideas Across Economies watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/spreadi…

In a new major report, the World Bank conceded that its decades-long war on industrial policy was wrong, saying its old advice “has not aged well — it has the practical value of a floppy disk today.” But this is not an intellectual awakening. The World Bank's doctrine shifted because the means through which Western nations can maintain their dominance shifted — not because economists suddenly discovered new evidence. The world’s wealthiest nations are now pursuing industrial policy so openly that it can no longer be denied to the rest of the world. When the geopolitical winds shift, so does the ideology of institutions where wealthy nations' interests are deeply entrenched.

The boom left Ecuador with a state-led growth model tied to oil rents. The infrastructure and expanded public administration created capacity, but raised the economy’s break-even fiscal needs and expectations around subsidies and public employment. watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/ecuador…

Ecuador Oil Boom (1972–1981): Growth and the State watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/ecuador… via @GrahamWatkins

Technology, Shocks, and the State open.substack.com/pub/gwatkins/p…

How Costa Rica Made EVs Scale watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/how-cos… via @GrahamWatkins

Spreading Successful Ideas Across Economies watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/spreadi…

Guyana’s Oil Boom 2015 to Today: Fast Growth, Hard Choices watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/guyana%… via @GrahamWatkins

Dominican Republic: economic booms can hide financial fragility watkinsadvisory.org/blog/f/dominic… via @GrahamWatkins