Lucious

オーケストラのコンサートに乱入した猫ちゃん、帰る気がなくそのまま演奏が始まってしまう

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 I wouldn't be surprised if that were true. They aren't at the apex of Ukraine yet, so the more land they take the more they have to cover. That's not a "plus" for Ukraine though. The only potential boon is that Ukraine's situation should improve as supply lines shorten.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 So far, Russia is failing to mass enough troops for Putin's spring offensive, I hear so much about the propaganda channels, which is telling all by itself.

Thank you NATO *sarcasm*

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 1:9.... yeah, just a *little* too optimistic lol The real ratio is probably 1:3 at best. And considering Russia is the one invading, pushing into entrenched positions, and taking territory, it'd be insane if they didn't have a 2:1 loss ratio at the very least.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 >They'd need ~1:4 or ~1:5 ratio to secure a favorable peace, they don't have that. They actually do, according to most Open Source Intel account and sites. Some sources even say 1:9, but I think this is a little too optimistic.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Favoring Ukraine... while they've been suffering from manpower shortages? Lmao ogey. They'd need ~1:4 or ~1:5 ratio to secure a favorable peace, they don't have that. Kudos to Zelensky for throwing away the nationalistic zeal he had a few years ago with foolish offensives.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 The attrition rates are heavily favoring the Ukraine. They make look the Battle of Verdun downright mobile. And kudos to Zelensky, he and his staff have revolutionized drone warfare. Something we all need to learn from.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 So it's not just Ukraine vs Russia? Interesting. It's almost like the fact that Russia can still make gains despite NATO pumping intel, aid, & materials into Ukraine is a sign Russia isn't "shit" Also, you can say the same about Zelensky's foolish squandering of his own manpower.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 The Ukraine is a great test case of Russia vs. The West because the Ukraine is getting supplied by the West, which was my point from the beginning. The only reason they are not driving Russia back is the amount of people Putin is willing to sacrifice.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 You said they aren't shit because they can't take Ukraine- implying it is just Russia vs Ukraine by themselves. Are you high, or just trying to move the goalpost?

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 And we suddenly wouldn't have that if Russia were to attack a NATO state? Are you high?

@MarcusSol4 @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval Yes, foregone conclusions exist because statistical reality is a thing- if you disagree go play the lottery. I suggest you follow your own advice as there's not a single general in history who would hinge a campaign on divine intervention saving them from a hopeless situation.

@HeyImLucious @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval O k , but you still got confused there since I mentioned both. Nothing in life is a foregone conclusion. If you think in such terms , I suggest growing a little older , get a little wiser , read a little more books on the history of pretty much anything. Good day

Always funny to me how Napoleon's legacy is "not undone by Waterloo" but Richard is constantly rememberedas having not taken Jerusalem or "failed" on the third crusade. Richard didn't even lose a battle!

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Right... because they're only fighting against Ukraine, right? Absolutely no coordinated SIGINT, COMINT, ELINT, operational aid, weapons shipments, etc. from any NATO countries have touched Ukraine since the war started, right? It's totally just Russia vs Ukraine.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 They are trying and failing to take Ukraine. Russia ain't shit. Stop deluding yourself.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 It's not fear mongering when I'm telling you the geopolitical reality lol. Fear-mongering would be your strawman- the whole "Russian tanks rolling all over Europe" thing. Like I said, it'll be a rude awakening when you realize Russia isn't just vodka (theyre vodka with big guns)

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Well, I am not. And your fear-mongering is not effective. Also, the US leaving NATO needs Congress approval. That is a whole different barrier than Trump shitting out another set of executive orders. And even if they leave. We will be fine. Russia ain't shit.

@MarcusSol4 @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval I don't think there's any value asking if *some battle* was fought at Waterloo. What matters is the outcome (i.e. the fall of Napoleon) France's enemies were growing stronger while the French empire was contracting. His fall was a foregone conclusion (Russian invasion or not).

@HeyImLucious @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval I'm aware, which is why I stated both just to be clear both the actual battlefield end or is end.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Yeahhh, no, you should be *just a little* shitted considering these urgent reforms all assume that the US won't leave NATO (which would likely collapse and be replaced with smaller, regional, alliances without the US) bundesregierung.de/breg-de/servic… bundeswehr.de/de/meldungen/b…

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Russia's convetional forces at this point won't make it past Poland and an amphibic assault through the Baltic would be hilarious to see, but likely equally curtailed in its infancy. I am not sorry for no longer being afraid of Russia.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 If your standard for threat is some cartoon villain level military strength like *that* then there's another issue at hand.

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Yes, I am certain Russia can still do damage, if they want to, but they are far from the "millions strong army of russian tank battalions" that would roll all over europe. Right now Russia has to replace a town's worth of people every month just maintain a mediocum of momentum.

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 "Today’s Russia is for now the most significant threat" and the avant-garde policy shifts to hurry up and modernize says quite a bit. Note that this is just *one* report lol (feel free to double check with the original if you're so inclined). nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Secur…

@HeyImLucious @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Oh do tell, I need a good laugh.

@MarcusSol4 @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval My fren, I think you've misread the context. "Waterloo" was said moreso as a metaphor for Napoleon's ultimate defeat, rather than a purely literal "if <x> then <y>" statement.

@HeyImLucious @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval Now We're going into a discussion that literally already has library worth of books written on the subject, but at the end of the day. If He did not invade Russia obviously there would have been no Waterloo battle. Would he have met his Inn on the battlefield? Very less likely

@Jaquento @shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Damn.... you guys are in for a rude awakening when you realize the actual reason why Russia didn't steamroll Ukraine.

@shitpostersupr1 @Osint613 Russia ain't the shit everybody thought they were. I would feel more threatened by Poland.

@EdgeRunner737 @MarcusSol4 @MemoryMedieval Hard agree

@HeyImLucious @MarcusSol4 @MemoryMedieval Most major conquerors are destroyed by hubris

@not__vee @mrspeigle1 That's, honestly, a good point. In the west it's very uncommon to have grandparents living in the same home as their children+spouse+grandkids (not mythical, but definitely rare). If they did, then the entire scenario changes and the work/effort becomes a lot lighter.

@mrspeigle1 @HeyImLucious Do grandparents even exist in the west or are they a mythical creature?

And the house and everything on her back including the children aren't being paid by someone else? Assuming shes stay at home. Someone that prolly did the statue btw, cause in 40 years of my life i've never seen a group of female construction workers.

@MarcusSol4 @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval I certainly agree that history would've played out differently (kinda self-evident). However: that would result in the complete collapse of the Continental system. Beyond the obvious effects of that- Napoleon's ego, fed by vainglory, would've likely seen him double down in Spain.

@HeyImLucious @EdgeRunner737 @MemoryMedieval That doesn't take away from what he's saying if he still had the veteran army and the large army that he had without invading , russia would have been lou , but that is a great , but what if what would have happened instead.

@TwoLastNeurons @not__vee My fren, please don't compare having a pet dog to raising a child properly. I want to believe that you're very much aware of how misguided such a comparison is.

@HeyImLucious @not__vee Most modern women have cats and dogs. And cats might be "fine" without attention, dogs require lots of effort. I don't buy it. Plus, kids when they grow they are supposed to help with raising the younger ones. What do you think this is

@matt47871 @ItsumoNihongo If that's true then I'm about to be hit with some painful irony lol

@HeyImLucious @ItsumoNihongo I haven’t had a fried Oreo with that much breading. It’s funny because the place I have had them is Sushi restaurants.😂

アメリカ人は本当にこれ食うのかよ。一口食ったら糖尿病になるに決まってるやんけ