John W. Farrell

My latest for @commonwealmag : commonwealmagazine.org/jaki-stanley-f…

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Record turnout by Hungarian voters was too much for Orbán's dirty tricks or to deny. He didn’t want exile or worse. Will see as his epic corruption is exposed. I hope this is the "Hungarian model" that applies to the US midterms, which usually have low, <50% turnout. Vote!

@DavidAFrench Indeed. I'd love to know what @roddreher was making. Do you think he'll ever acknowledge?

This would be very very interesting.

The Trump administration seems to have miscalculated in Islamabad, assuming that Iran was weakened and ready to cave, when in fact it feels it has the upper hand. It's difficult to reach an agreement when both sides feel they have the advantage and are prone to overreach. And now Trump seems inclined to miscalculate again, assuming that blockading the Strait will force Iran to capitulate. That seems very unlikely. It's true that a blockade will put economic pressure on Tehran and on China, which in turn can put pressure on Iran. But with zero oil passing through the Strait, rising oil prices are likely to put even more pressure on Trump. Iran, as a dictatorship, simply has more strategic patience, and in addition there are many in Tehran who believe that Iran has to do more to reestablish deterrence and make the US pay a price. If the US blocks Iranian oil exports, expect Iran in turn to keep striking Fujairah, to keep the UAE from by passing the Strait by pipeline, and also to target Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline carrying oil to the Red Sea. And the Houthis are likely to counter-escalate by blocking oil exports through the Bab al-Mandab Strait as well. And that's not even counting possible strikes on oil refineries in the region. In short, I think Trump's escalation plans are once again characterized by magical thinking, false assumptions of Iranian weakness and a failure to think ahead about how Iran may respond to his moves. For Trump to escalate at this point will be a sign not of strength but of desperation, and counter to American and world interests.

The quote that matters most in the Atlantic piece does not come from a critic. It comes from Andrew Napolitano - libertarian, retired judge, Alito's Princeton classmate. His words: "Sam is not an originalist. Sam is a conservative person who wants a conservative outcome." And the record backs him. At the tariff hearing, Alito was volunteering legal justifications for Trump's orders that Trump's own legal team had not raised. National Review put it in print: "it is not the Court's job to opine on powers the president has not invoked." When the publication that shaped your legal worldview since college has to tell you to stay in your lane, something has shifted. Roberts, Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Gorsuch have each, at least occasionally, pushed back on unchecked executive power. They understand their own movement's stated first principles require it. Alito, on the rare occasions they cross over, holds firm for Trump. "Held firm" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Every country in Asia is thinking right now: "Well we don't love China, but unlike Trump's USA it has never cut off our energy supply. Maybe they're a more reliable and responsible partner for our future security. At least they're predictable."

Cardinal McElroy’s powerful, resonant words at last night’s vigil for peace end with a summons to move from prayer to action, so as not to allow Trump and Netanyahu to resume their immoral, illegal, brutal, life-destroying, destabilising war of choice.

Why didn't Orban keep power by repression? He must have thought about it. But with an economy embedded in the European Union and armed forces anchored in NATO, there were sharp practical limits to how tyrannical he could be without national catastrophe. Institutions mattered.

Orban concedes defeat. The support of Trump, Vance, Putin, Lavrov, Weidel, Milei, Le Pen, Fico, Babis and many others could not overcome Hungarian anger at a stagnant, corrupt regime #block-69dbf1ff8f08ff62487f805e" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">theguardian.com/world/live/202…

Other losers tonight along with Orban: @roddreher , @Heritage, and the Opus Dei cult.

"At 4:30 a.m. on April 12, 1861, Confederate forces fired on Fort Sumter, a federal fort built on an artificial island in Charleston Harbor." Richardson for April 11, 2026 open.substack.com/pub/heathercox…

Starts With A Bang #128 – Planet formation and proto-protoplanets You've heard of planets, exoplanets, and protoplanets. Now, for the first time, we've discovered something more primitive than any of them: a proto-protoplanet. Here's what it means. bigthink.com/starts-with-a-…

APPLEBAUM: Russians aren't winning, despite the absence of United States. Maybe Trump imagined that if the U.S. disappeared, Ukraine would collapse. It didn't collapse. European part of NATO, Ukrainians, and other allies turned out to be very powerful. It's almost as if Trump is listening to Putin, getting information from Putin. He is not paying attention to what's actually happening on the ground. It's as if he has no information from Ukraine and from Europe at all.

Donald Trump’s threats of war crimes against Iran “were not the words of a strategist,” David Remnick writes. “They were the words of a maniac.” newyorkermag.visitlink.me/lFnmzq

Epic corruption, endless propaganda, security force crackdowns and false flag operations, election interference by a hostile foreign dictatorship… That’s Orbán’s Hungary today and, unless America wakes up, it will be the United States tomorrow. My latest Next Move: 👇

Doug Wilson has been a major influence on Pete Hegseth. Here is a summary of Wilson's beliefs, all referenced in his own words, inc: - Slavery wasn't that bad - AIDS is not a real infectious disease - The physically disabled can't enter into real marriage dougwilsonbelieves.com

Iran reports that it is unable to find mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe that's true. But this is also convenient for Iran. This keeps the main ship lane in international waters effectively closed, but ships can still pass safely if they go closer to Iran, through Iranian territorial waters between Larak and Hormuz islands -- reinforcing Iran's control of ships passing through the Strait. In other words, it's not in Iran's interest to find those mines and clear the international passage. nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/…

I was thirty-something years old when Iranian students dragged me into a room and told me I wasn't going anywhere. Four hundred and forty-four days later, I walked out. I've spent the decades since trying to make sense of what happened — and what keeps happening — between our two countries. So don't talk to me about Iran like it's an abstraction. I lived inside that confrontation. I felt it. Which is why I'm not ready to write off this ceasefire, even though everything about it is maddening. Negotiations in Pakistan may produce nothing. The talks could collapse before they get started. I've seen American diplomacy with Iran fail more times than I can count, and usually for the same reasons — too much pride, too little patience, and Israel holding a match in the corner of the room. But here's what I know in my bones: another war won't break Iran. We just tried. It didn't work. Iran doesn't break — it absorbs, it adapts, and it waits. I watched that stubbornness up close for 444 days. What bothers me most isn't that Iran is winning this moment — it's that we handed it to them. Tehran's framework is running these negotiations. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Still collecting tolls. Trump looked at their proposal and called it workable. I never thought I'd see the day, but here we are. Iran wants everything on the table — sanctions, enrichment rights, American troops out, and a deal that covers what's happening in Lebanon and Gaza too. That's a lot to swallow. And Israel, which wasn't invited to this conversation, is already making clear it has no intention of being constrained by it. That's the part that worries me the most. Because if Israel keeps bombing and Washington can't or won't stop it, none of this holds. And yet — and I say this as someone who has every reason to distrust Tehran — I don't think we go back to all-out war. Not because anyone has suddenly gotten wise, but because the math doesn't work. A second round ends the same way. Iran still controls the Strait. The global economy still flinches when Tehran flexes. What we're heading toward isn't peace. It's something smaller and more precarious — two countries silently agreeing not to destroy each other today, with no paperwork and no guarantees. I know what it's like to survive on something that fragile. For 444 days, that's all I had.