Matthew Hoh@MatthewPHoh
An analysis like the below is incomplete because it relies on assertions from US and Israeli sources that the drop in Iranian ballistic missile and drone launches from the first days of the war is the result of successful elimination of launchers and launch sites, as well as a speculative application of Iranian missile and drone inventory.
The perceived decrease in missile and drone use by Iran, something that has actually increased in the last few days, may well come from factors not included in US and Israeli analysis and assertions:
-the Iranians planned for an initial large volume of fire to overwhelm key US and Israeli targets, such as radar platforms, as well as force high expenditures of US, Israeli and Arab air defenses.
-the early Iranian numbers may be inflated by a large volume of decoys utilized, again to force high amounts of expenditures by coalition defenses.
-Iranian missile and drone volume remained constant for most of last two weeks before a noticeable rise, especially with drones, in the last several days (see post below). If daily reports of Iranian launchers and launch sites are true, reports of 70-90% destruction, how could missile and drone launches remain constant? How could they increase in last days?
-Time appears on the side of the Iranians, this war is proceeding in their favor, measured in ability to achieve political objectives through a sound execution of strategy and not measured in numbers of targets bombed or a bodycount (this reflects a dissonance between Iranian political and strategic competence vs the US stuck in an admiration of tactical and operational levels of war because strategic and political levels are too hard).
-A steady and sustained missile and drone campaign, husbanding and wisely using inventory, rather than meeting some daily/weekly expectation of comparative metrics and numbers, is in line with Iranian strategy and their impressive strategic patience.
-Every air war, going back to WWII, has included widely inflated battle damage assessment. There is no reason to think any different of this air war.
-Reliable OSINT analysts and commentators have questioned why so little video of Iranian launchers and launch sites being destroyed have been published.
-Widely cited estimates of an Iranian ballistic missile inventory of 2500 missiles appear incorrect as Iran seems to have already fired that many missiles. The truth is we simply don’t know the reality of the Iranian inventory. Maybe they are almost out of missiles, maybe they aren’t…?
-These same questions and doubts should be applied to American and Israeli assertions of full destruction of Iranian ballistic missile production, or any other claims from the US and Israel, and, for that matter, Iran.
-We will certainly learn the truth of all this in the coming weeks, but as of today, a belief that the US and Israel are close to neutralizing Iranian missile and drone capabilities should be taken with great hesitation and doubt.
There is tremendous opacity with regards to Iran’s capabilities and capacities. It’s very possible a stale mate as described below occurs rather soon. However, I think there is a likelihood, by no means a certainty, but a likelihood, that Iran is able to continue this campaign of drone and missile attacks for not just weeks but months. It’s one of the reasons I believe every day this war continues it is more in Iran’s favor.