Doug

Good observation. Stagflation — with the “flation” heavily pronounced. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

S&P 500 YTD total return: +0.0% After all that ... it’s like nothing ever happened.

BofA’s Hartnett Sees the Surge in Commodities Lasting for Years Investors should flock into commodities for the next few years as they benefit from global geopolitical and macroeconomic turmoil, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. Stocks would be replaced by commodities as the biggest winners of the “anything but bonds” trade for the rest of the 2020s as investors seek protection against risk, inflation and a weaker dollar, the strategist wrote. Fiscal excess means that the next few years are “more likely to see bear market rallies in government bonds, but no bull market.” War in the Middle East and the artificial intelligence race have led to a heightened focus on supply chains, as governments seek to limit the fallout for industry and consumers from soaring prices for energy and other natural resources, and try to secure critical minerals, such as rare earths, that are essential for manufacturing and technology. (Bloomberg)

@SenRandPaul Because the state has become nothing more than a colossal jobs program in service of an oligarchy. They aren't paid to "monitor and prevent the welfare ripoff", they're paid to be part of a sprawling bureaucracy acting as a human shield for those at the top.

Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like.

Bears fucked this week. Bulls very fucked next week. Goodnight.

US equity positioning has fallen to historically low levels: The US consolidated equity positioning is down to its lowest since May 2025, posting a similar decline as during the first months of the 2022 bear market. This covers professional investors like fund managers, hedge funds, and algorithm-based trading strategies. Over the last 15 years, positioning has only been lower 20% of the time. This comes as discretionary investors like hedge funds and mutual funds have only been this underweight 16% of the time. At the same time, systematic funds, such as CTAs and volatility-targeting funds, are at levels only seen 23% of the time over the same period. Investor positioning is so low that any positive catalyst could fuel a sharp market rebound.

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@RapidResponse47 Sir, this is a Wendy’s.

This is an under appreciated art in itself - surgical precision at it’s finest.

"Unrealized capital gains" is not a thing; do not normalize it. Call it out for what they are proposing: unlawful seizure of personal property.

JUST IN: 𝕏 announces they're suspending 208 bots per minute "and growing"

"Central bank gold buying – the end of an era?" UBS

USPS suspends contributions to employee pensions after warning of "cash crisis," per CBS

If you die without a plan...   - The government takes 40% in tax - Probate court costs $100k+ - Your kids get the scraps   If you love your family, here's every document you need to protect them:   (from a CPA & father of two) 1) Emergency Access List   This should include:   -> All bank account numbers -> Investment account logins -> Life insurance policies -> 401k/IRA beneficiaries -> Safe deposit box location -> Password manager master code   Keep a digital & physical version for safety...   And make sure your spouse has access. 2) Legal Documents   -> Will (name guardians for kids) -> Durable Power of Attorney -> Healthcare Power of Attorney -> Living Will/Healthcare Directive   Setting all of this up costs about $500...   ($1,500 with an attorney)   But without them, the state decides everything. 3) Money Protection   Your family will need time to mourn.   Make sure they can do it without going broke:   -> Term life insurance (10x income) -> Emergency fund (6-12 mo in a HYSA) -> Retirement accounts with spouse access 4) The "First 48 Hours" Sheet   Write down clear instructions for your family:   Call this attorney: [Name/Number] Call this CPA: [Name/Number] File life insurance claim here: [Details] Don't touch investments for 6 months All bills are on autopay from [Account]   Grief destroys decision making.   This protects them. 5) Business Owner Addition   If you have a business, set up:   -> Buy sell agreements -> Key person insurance -> Business succession plan -> Separate LLC owned by trust   If your company can't survive without you...   It's a 9-5 with extra steps. 6) Trust Setup   A proper trust can save your family $400k+ in probate costs.   But 90% of them are set up wrong:   -> Assets never get transferred in -> Beneficiaries aren't updated -> Pour-over will is missing   Here's how to fix that: "Bulletproof" Trust System:   1) Revocable Living Trust -> Avoids probate completely -> Keeps finances private -> Protects kids' inheritance   2) Pour-Over Will -> Catches forgotten assets   3) Guardian Designation -> Who raises your kids -> How they get paid Setting this up takes a weekend...   But ignoring it could cost your family everything.   So start before you're ready...   Because no one plans on dying.    Hope this helps!   Share with your spouse if you want to set this up...   And follow me for more 🤝🏻

5 STRAIGHT DAYS of Slight+ risks of severe weather across the United States! 😬 Very large hail, damaging winds, and plenty of tornadoes will threaten the Great Plains and Ohio Valley over the next 7 days. Now is a good time to go over your severe weather action plan, and spread the word about this growing threat.

Been in the business 46 years. These sure are interesting times. Quite a spread in play here. Asking for friend....spread going to narrow or widen??? $SPY $GLD

"Some Americans say they’re refusing to pay federal taxes in protest against Trump," per NBC

Markets are delusional we’ve already lost: - ~30% of fertilizers - ~20% of LNG - ~14% of oil - ~30% of helium Any one of these on its own would be enough to trigger a crisis. Together, they form a systemic shock that risks pulling the global economy into a serious recession. Because these aren’t isolated commodities.... they sit at the core of entire production chains: Petrochemicals -> fertilizer -> food production Petrochemicals -> mining (copper, uranium, nickel) Petrochemicals -> plastics -> cars, electronics Petrochemicals -> drugs, rubber, textiles Helium -> semiconductors / AI chips Gas -> power generation Diesel -> transportation So this isn’t just an energy problem... it’s a full-spectrum supply shock hitting food, industry, tech, transportation and power at the same time. Without flows from Hormuz, the system doesn’t just slow down, it starts to break. And there is no policy tool that can replace missing physical supply.

They built central banks to make debt slaves out of free men.