Rob Leff

@APompliano Great post. And is why retail investors should never have been allowed to invest in these products. Wall Street always building WMDs to sell investors. Just like the crap mortgages in MBS and ABS going into 2008!

Private credit is hitting its first real redemption stress test. Here’s the situation in plain English: After 2008, banks pulled back from lending due to tighter regulation. Private funds stepped in and filled the gap. They offered flexible loans with floating rates and higher yields than public markets. In a low-rate world, investors chased returns and diversification. The result was massive growth. Assets went from about $900 billion in 2019 to more than $2 trillion. Then rates spiked after the pandemic. Borrowers started feeling the pressure. Defaults began creeping higher, especially in software and tech where AI is disrupting business models. At the same time, underwriting standards had loosened during the boom years. Now yields are compressing as rates ease, and investors are starting to question valuations that are not marked in real time. A few high-profile blowups flipped sentiment quickly. Now redemption requests are rising across semi-liquid private credit funds. These include non-traded BDCs and interval funds that promised some liquidity, but not full liquidity. Here is the problem though. These funds own illiquid loans. You cannot sell them quickly without taking a big discount. So when too many investors want their money back at once, managers have limited options. They can hold more cash, tap credit lines, or sell assets at lower prices. All of those hurt performance and net asset value for the investors who stay. So what do they do? They gate redemptions. Most of these funds cap withdrawals at around 5 percent of NAV per quarter. When redemption requests jump to 9 to 11 percent or higher, which we are now seeing at firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, investors do not get all their money back. They get a prorated amount or sometimes a return of capital. In extreme cases, funds can pause redemptions entirely or support the fund with their own balance sheet. This is not a 2008-style crisis. But it is a real stress test of the model. The core issue has always been the same. You are offering periodic liquidity on top of fundamentally illiquid assets. Now we find out whether that tradeoff was worth it.

@Sonny496 @elerianm CDOs do already exist but totally agree

@Sonny496 @elerianm I am not hearing that from people who run the non retail investor debt funds. The companies they provided debt to so far can service the debt and their investors are institutional or qualified so they don’t redeem. Just another disaster of a product made by Wall Street for retail

This is notable news from Bloomberg given Apollo's standing in private credit: "Apollo Global Management Inc. is curbing redemptions from one of its largest non-traded private credit funds for retail investors, becoming the latest alternative asset manager to grapple with a surge in such requests. The $25 billion business development company, Apollo Debt Solutions, capped withdrawals at 5% of outstanding shares Monday after clients sought to redeem 11.2%." #economy #markets #privatecredit

@elerianm The issue here is retail investors should never have been able to buy into these funds. The debt funds invest in companies on a 5-7 year horizon and if investors want to sell their shares like regular stocks you cannot sell the underlying investments since illiquid.

@Sonny496 @elerianm The issue here is retail investors should never have been able to buy into these funds. The debt funds invest in companies on a 5-7 year horizon and if investors want to sell their shares like regular stocks you cannot sell the underlying investments since illiquid.

@elerianm Private credit is the new sub-prime hiding in plain sight.

@BarbellFi Still have to pay federal taxes on it

20 Year Treasury yield now up to 5% You can buy $1 million of these bonds Collect $50k/year for 20 years Pay no state and local taxes Then get $1 million back in 20 years Why aren’t more people doing this? 🤔

@jeffborzello It is called the NIL and transfer portal. Every top player from HighPoint and other schools that made it will be playing for one of the teams in the major conferences

This is only the second time in NCAA tournament history where the Sweet 16 is made up entirely of teams from major conferences. The only other time? Last year.

@T3Bracketology And how many of those players will enter the portal and be at one of the major programs next year!!!

High Point University that had never won a tournament game beat a Wisconsin team with multiple Top 10 road wins and took an Arkansas team with multiple NBA players to the brink… And you think these mid majors will never have a shot at a run again? Give me a break

@JaretGold Wouldn’t make a difference. They would be out by the second round. No one can compete with the money of the big programs

My solution to fix March Madness? Actually get the best mid-major teams in the tournament. 18-11 Penn got in over 24-5 Yale 24-10 Hofstra got in over 26-5 UNCW 17-17 Lehigh got in over 26-6 Navy Mid-majors should give the regular season champ the bid

@kellyinvegas Will see on Vanderbilt vs Nebraska

March Madness: Just bet the favorite and win.

@RonDeSantis Pre 9-11 airport security was run by the airlines. It was horrible. And suitcases were rarely checked for explosives. Last thing you want is airlines cutting costs by reducing security.

Is there evidence that creating TSA has made air travel safer over the past 25 years? If not, then why not let the airlines and airports handle it? Why give politicians the power to play games with the travel of our people?

@ClayTravis Absolutely has!

Higher seeds and power conferences are dominating so far through the first round of the NCAA Tourney. High Point over Wisconsin was the only real upset in round one. Based on the past two seasons I think NIL and the transfer portal have killed tourney Cinderellas.

@theblockspot Saint Louis will be the Cinderella story if it takes down Michigan tomorrow!

Duke barely escaped Siena. UConn barely escaped Furman. Arizona hasn’t won since 1997. You don’t trust Michigan St. You don’t trust Gonzaga. You don’t trust Houston. You don’t trust Iowa St. You don’t trust Purdue. You don’t trust Illinois. Who is going to WIN March Madness ??

Down 103-67 to Illinois, Penn's band is chanting: "That's okay, that's okay, you're going to work for us someday."

@elonmusk Maybe the key is to have the Costco employees with the highlighters at the voting booths. That will definitely cause people to follow the rules

No voter ID, especially when combined with mail-in ballots, means the system is engineered to make fraud impossible to prove. Everyone knows that you can barely get through your week without showing ID for the most banal activities, like shopping at Costco. The only reason to ban ID is to hide massive voter fraud.

@PattyMurray Average person is not going to commit voter fraud!!! The goal of the bill is to have American citizens vote which I don’t know why is a big deal when every other country basically on this planet requires it!!!!

The average person is more likely to be struck by lightning than they are to commit voter fraud. Seriously. That's a real stat. I'm voting NO on the SAVE America Act.

@BadWolf6851 @AllysonSaysSo2 Perhaps. Today will be a big test against Tennessee. Although St. Joseph’s looked insane against Georgia last night.

@AllysonSaysSo2 It’s going to be tough Gonzaga always excels in the tournament but Texas is playing their best ball of the year I think. I’m looking at Miami of Ohio to be the Cinderella team

Be honest. How many of y'all got this right? 🤘 If you did, you are my true friends #Hookem #TexasLonghorns

@theficouple Or you just lease it!!! Gas cars drop by the same amounts as well based on the number of miles and how many of the car were produced

When you bought the $50,000 Tesla Model Y to save on gas & maintenance. Then you learned: - It loses 20-35% of its value by year 3 - It loses 55-58% of its value by year 5 So by year 5 you lost $35,000+ of value? ....Congrats on saving ~$1,000/yr on gas.

@mtgreenee @megynkelly He is an antisemite and Tucker is a traitor. And you are completely irrelevant.

Joe Kent tells Tucker Iran was not on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb. This is Iraq all over again. We should not be fighting this war, we should be putting America FIRST!!!

@Matt_Pinner Sad. 19 for me. Still have not been to San Antonio

I've been to 2, you ?