Rob Walker (@robwalk3r.bsky.social)

Australia wants to be a renewable superpower - but domestic policy alone won't get it there. Without green trade partnerships to lock in demand, the strategy is wishful thinking. New piece in @LowyInstitute's Interpreter ↓ lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

(i) Not clear why growth in world trade should create a net demand for dollars. World trade can grow through both rising exports and imports while remaining balanced. (ii) The other commonly cited argument is that the demand for safe assets requires the safe asset issuer to run deficits. This again is theoretically weak. Demand for safe assets is about gross flows. There is no reason this should necessarily lead to net deficits. (iii) Empirically too the reserve currency argument has limitations. As @Brad_Setser points out the relation between fiscal deficits and trade/current account deficits is imperfect. There were 2 previous major episodes of global imbalances: One was in the 1980s where indeed large fiscal deficits (and an appreciating dollar) contributed to growing current-account deficits. The second episode was in the run-up to the GFC in 2008 when fiscal deficits were not the driver (and the dollar was depreciating). (iv) During the years when the British pound was the dominant currency of the world Britain ran current account surpluses. (v) The Swiss Franc is a reserve currency country that consistently runs surpluses. New Zealand, on the other hand, is not a reserve currency country and has consistently run deficits. So, both theoretically and empirically, it is hard to argue that the dollar's reserve currency status is what is behind persistent US current account deficits.

New release: the BCL Long-Term Productivity Database v2.7 is now available for download. GDP per capita, labor productivity, and TFP for 23 OECD countries, 1890–2024. Free, open, updated annually. longtermproductivity.com/download.html A few highlights below 🧵↓

The view that the dollar’s reserve currency status is responsible for its deficits is a terribly flawed view.

The World Bank's 1993 "East Asian Miracle" report attributed the miracle to macroeconomic fundamentals, not state intervention. "Industrial policy" would remain taboo for 30 years. In a new JEP symposium, @nancymbirdsall -- who oversaw the report -- reassesses that call. 🧵

For more in-depth analysis, see our paper here: lowyinstitute.org/publications/n…

The China shock 2.0 is also not preventing the region from competing in non-US markets. Southeast Asia's exports to the rest of the world are growing faster than China's.

ASEAN overtook China in US import shares this year due to the tariff shock. New research for @LowyInstitute finds Southeast Asia remains resilient in the face of Trump's trade shocks. lowyinstitute.org/publications/n… 1/

Australia has signed up for an expensive critical mineral future by excluding China. My latest for @LowyInstitute lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

President Trump’s sudden tariff increases have unsettled Southeast Asia’s trust in the United States, which risks accelerating the region's long-term drift toward China, write @SusannahCPatton and @RobWalk3R in @east_asia_forum. eastasiaforum.org/2025/09/23/tru…

Spoke with @PatsKarvelas on Friday about the latest US tariff announcements and implications for Australia for @abcnews Albanese government tariff strategy looking vindicated but more sectoral tariff investigations on the horizon to watch out for. iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2522C1…

Cambodian illegal logging could accelerate with potential US 232 tariffs on timber and lumber. Already seeing excessive deforestation, this could spell disaster for Cambodia’s forests. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete… Will US tariffs boost Cambodia’s illegal logging? | Lowy Institute

As @RobWalk3R writes in The Interpreter, the unintended consequences of President Trump's tariffs may increase illegal logging in Cambodia. You can read the article here:👉 lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

🎉 Congrats on the launch of The Jokowi Presidency: Indonesia’s Decade of Authoritarian Revival! Edited by Sana Jaffrey & Eve Warburton, the volume brings together leading experts to explore Jokowi’s legacy across politics, law, foreign policy, economics & human rights.

More tariffs and trade uncertainty are coming, not less. TACO applies to individual decisions, not the general direction of Washington's approach to trade. The America First Trade Policy is only getting started. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

New article for @LowyInstitute #indonesia failed to negotiate an initial reduction in reciprocal tariffs, domestic headwinds and bad policy are coalescing into an increasingly poor outlook for the economy. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Mounting headwinds leave limited space for President Prabowo’s spending and centralising tendencies, write @RobWalk3R and Hilman Palaon in The Interpreter. lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…