Scots for Leave
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Scots for Leave
@ScotsForLeaveEU
We are cross-party Scots who believe #Scotland is better off outside the European Union. (Scots4Leave) Email: [email protected]



JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Exclusive by @nadinebh_: Labour MPs have been told to vote AGAINST an amendment to allow victims free access to transcripts of court proceedings Why? The minister cites preparedness and affordability 👇 politicshome.com/news/article/l…





After #PMQs Tory MP Sir Edward Leigh MP raised a Point of Order on Keir Starmer dodging EVERY question EVERY week. The Speaker says that he cannot do anything about it. It has become utterly points to watch. I don’t blame the Reform MPs for walking out. It’s so pointless now.

‘The Prime Minister’s chief of staff has no back up of his messages?’ @Lewis_Goodall wants to know what happened to Morgan McSweeney's phone containing texts with Peter Mandelson.



Could an agreement for Britain to join Europe’s defence fund ‘Security Action for Europe’ (Safe) be back on the cards? Speaking in Paris yesterday, European Council president Antonio Costa suggested as much. ‘It could take some weeks, months, but for sure, we will achieve an agreement with the UK on the Safe issue,’ he said. ✍️ Lisa Haseldine Article | spectator.com/article/can-eu…

POLITICO launched a security review after a private telephone conversation between one of its reporters and an EU official about issues connected to Hungary and Ukraine was apparently intercepted and the recording published online. politico.eu/article/politi…


I would add to this. Our democracy is under direct threat. The Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill is just one example. It isn’t just policy, it’s a framework. It hands ministers and QUANGOs like Ofcom the power to change how the internet is regulated later through secondary legislation. This means new law can be passed without Parliamentary vote or even proper scrutiny. Today it’s “child safety”. Tomorrow it’s whatever fits the definition. Pay attention










