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Sigmoid
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Sigmoid
@SigmoidMarkets
The first Prediction & Precision market launchpad on Solana.
参加日 Nisan 2026
2 フォロー中206 フォロワー
Calling this a 1:1 copy is just lazy.
We’ve been pretty clear on this.
Spectrum-style positions are ONE component of what we’re building and we’ve never claimed otherwise.
But we’re not just a trading interface.
We’re building a prediction & precision launchpad:
• users create markets and earn from them
• traders engage across binary + range formats
• RISKR introduces conviction-based capital allocation (we created this; unique to us, based on our own math)
That combination doesn’t exist elsewhere.
Precision range trading is one component - not the product.
No one calls binary markets a copy of Polymarket because primitives evolve.
Same thing here.
We’re expanding the design space, not replicating it. $Sigmoid
Gems Scape@GemsScape
Tbh bro, $Sigmoid copied everything from $Iso. If you belive in $ISO you should stay away from $Sigmoid “I want to take a quick moment to address something. There is a project that recently sprouted up that copied Isometric's website design, whitepaper, formulas, concepts, architechtural design (they even went with 4 core Anchor programs similar to mine— and named them the exact same) and pretty much everything else word-for-word. While we do encourage competition, it's important to note that imitations utilizing everything I've already built and copying everything nearly word-for-word doesn't exactly sprout confidence. There is a lot of talk of a working simulator on the product— that takes <15 minutes to spin up in some vibe coding platform and if truly interested, I can put that out within the hour to prove the simplicity. To truly build a protocol of this caliber requires an extensive quantitative background with extreme technical expertise— actually making the product work on-chain is where the magic happens.” “If it was a novel design with new formulas utilizing the concept I've built, I'd give it a second thought, but their whitepaper is copied 1:1, their web design is 1:1, their architecture is 1:1, they've named their programs the same, and they're attempting to pass off papertrading, which is a 15-minute job, as the revelatory concept— I don't think there's much thought to be had for it. The real efficacy takes place in actually building the protocol itself for on-chain capability. Regardless, the focal point shouldn't be on a lackluster imitation of Isometric today, it should be on actual devnet deployment— 10,000+ lines of code, stringent testing and auditing and everything in between finally comes to fruition today!” “This is why, in my enormous post dispelling the recent fud last week, I mentioned that the reason I don't publicize the Isometric repo is that it creates a perfect opportunity for anybody to cannibalize and steal my code which is now, evidently, very sought after. This is inherent to people building actual primitives where everybody wants to steal the idea— however, if you didn't conceptualize the entire architecture design, find the proper formula fitting, understand the math at every level as I've done with Isometric for months, it's nigh-impossible to replicate something of this caliber.” “No worries! I'd actually be a bit more concerned if people DIDN'T try to replicate Isometric, that means the value proposition isn't there. However, this isn't some product like a launchpad or trading bot that's been done 1,000 times and can be easy replicated within a day of work. This is an incredibly dense protocol with no comparable platform to copy from (until now with Isometric).”
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Our latest data is speaking for itself and it's only getting better day by day. Congratulations to those who are a part of this journey already.
Users are taking part in every aspect of Sigmoid. You are envisioning markets, bidding, acquiring points and exploring actively.
This already feels and behaves like a live system, not a test.
Current activity: • 65+ user-created markets
• 30+ active
• 300+ bids per market on average
• peaks at 700+
• 60+ users on leaderboard (airdrop eligible)
All of this is pre-devnet. No real money in play, yet people want to take part.
What’s clear so far: → users will create markets if the flow is there
→ traders engage when there’s something to compete for
→ user market creation will flow in the way people find engaging and we can only do more to support that
Everything above this points only towards a successful early stage with much more to come. Stay with us and keep taking part to be the first users who benefit from the impending on-chain integration soon!
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Hi everyone,
The Team and I wanted to share a clear timeline of what the team will be focused on over the next few days as we push toward devnet.
As mentioned previously, our current expectation is to be live on devnet within ~1 week, with the possibility of going live sooner depending on progress.
More details below 👇
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@SyncMoonlt We'll lock in a more specific date as we get closer. We will say the 1-week timeframe given is on the conservative side.
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To our holders, we’re targeting devnet launch within 1 week.
Our on-chain market account structure is fully specified and ready to deploy.
Going live on devnet means:
• Markets, positions, and settlement logic move on-chain
• Full integration with our vault + collateral system
• Riskr conviction mechanics enforced at the protocol level
• Oracle-driven data feeding live market resolution
• End-to-end testing in a real Solana environment (not just simulation)
This is the shift from simulated behavior → live protocol execution.
From there, it’s about refining, stress testing, and preparing for mainnet.
We’re close and will keep everyone updated.
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Letting individuals create markets is one of the biggest unlocks for prediction markets.
Instead of a few platforms deciding what matters, anyone can spin up a market around the information they care about.
That’s how you:
• Unlock long-tail markets
• Turn creators into operators
• Let real attention drive what gets priced
In the Information Age, value comes from organizing information, not just consuming it.
Sigmoid is at the forefront of this shift.
Creators don’t just post takes, they launch markets.
Traders don’t just pick a side, they express how right they are through precision-based payouts.
Two sides of the same system:
creation + participation.
That’s how you move from a betting app to a market layer for information.
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@SyncMoonlt Yep, we will make our GitHub public and will undergo extensive audits prior to devnet and during devnet testing!
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@SigmoidMarkets "@SigmoidMarkets Will you publish the full source code of your 4 Anchor programs (core, vault, settlement, liquidation) on GitHub before or right after mainnet? Any plans for external audit?"
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Funny how quickly “competition is good” turns into paragraphs when it actually shows up.
We’re not here to argue but felt the need to address the comments given the amount.
We’re here to build something meaningfully different.
Sigmoid isn’t just another prediction market.
The focus has been:
• Precision-based markets (Spectrum) where payouts scale with accuracy, not just direction
• A system built for both creators and traders, not just one side
• A different take on participation, where users can shape markets, not just bet on them
Yes, this is a complex design space.
Yes, teams will explore similar primitives.
That’s how new categories form.
What matters is how ideas are executed, how products feel in users’ hands, and what actually works on-chain.
Competition should be welcomed.
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This is exactly how we see it.
Most prediction markets are built almost entirely for traders. Pick a side, place a bet, move on.
We’re trying to open that up.
Sigmoid is being built for both sides of the market:
creators who want to launch and own markets around their ideas, and traders who want better ways to express conviction than just yes/no.
The goal isn’t just to compete. It’s to become the place where markets actually get created, shaped, and traded.
Alpha Seeker@AlphaSeeker21
Prediction markets are still too narrow. That’s the real category problem. Most people think prediction markets = pick a side and hope you’re right. But it keeps the entire category smaller than it should be. Right now, too much of the space is built around: • one format • one role • one way to participate Most platforms are designed mainly for traders. That’s the limitation. $SIGMOID @SigmoidMarkets is building a whole different Prediction Market Ecosystem that actually expands the entire multi-billion dollar industry 98oXBs8bwb5b7L2k8thZDr3S2ub4H5vDNjLm7uvpump 🧵👇
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Sigmoid | Development & Investor Update 4/17/2026 pt. 2
Market Creation (Launchpad Layer)
• Market schema finalized
On-chain market account structure is now fully specified.
This includes:
- market type (binary / multi / spectrum)
- outcome definitions (discrete sets or continuous ranges)
– resolution parameters (oracle-fed or condition-based)
– creator fee (1–5%)
• Permissionless creation flow implemented (off-chain → preparing on-chain)
Market creation flow is live off-chain with no approval layer.
Users can:
– define the market question
– select market type
– configure resolution conditions
– set creator fee
Next step is mapping this 1:1 into Anchor instructions for on-chain instantiation.
• Outcome structures integrated across market types
Unified support across all market formats:
1.Binary → YES / NO
2.Multi → N discrete outcomes
3.Spectrum → continuous value ranges
All outcome types now normalize into a shared settlement interface.
• Pricing engine hooks connected
Markets initialize with pricing logic attached at creation.
1.Binary → odds derived from participation flow
2.Spectrum → LMSR + zone-weighted liquidity depth
Each market tracks:
– open interest
– per-zone liquidity (spectrum)
– active positions
Pricing + state tracking are now coupled at the market level.
• Creator fee mechanism completed
Creator fee (1–5%) is enforced across all position flows:
– applied on entry
– applied on exit
Fees are routed directly to the creator wallet at execution time.
Revenue scales with volume: no expiry, claim step, and functioning properly for continuous accrual
• Resolution pathways defined
Two resolution modes are supported:
1.Price-based → oracle input + TWAP finalization
2.Event-based → optimistic submission + dispute window
Resolution outputs normalize to:
– discrete outcome (binary / multi)
– final value (spectrum)
• Settlement routing integrated with core system
Post-resolution settlement now routes into:
1.binary payout (winner-takes-all)
2.spectrum payout (Gaussian proximity curve)
3.RISKR collateral redistribution layer
Creator fees are deducted pre-distribution at settlement.
• Liquidity model defined (no creator funding required)
Market creation is decoupled from liquidity provisioning.
Liquidity sources:
– traders (position-driven flow)
– LPs (range-based deposits for spectrum markets)
Markets can initialize without seeded capital.
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Our leaderboard is heating up.
43 unique users already creating and trading markets.
Want a spot?
Head to sigmoid.markets and start creating or trading.
Test the platform. Break things. Give us feedback.
Leaderboard → sigmoid.markets/leaderboard
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Sigmoid | Development & Investor Update 4/17/2026
• RISKR architecture finalized
Dual-layer system now fully defined on top of base market payouts.
– Base layer handles market resolution (binary / spectrum)
– Conviction layer handles collateral-weighted redistribution
Payout path is fixed:
TotalPayout = BasePayout + CollateralBonus
—
• Base payout function implemented (proximity-based)
Spectrum positions now resolve on a continuous curve instead of discrete settlement.
Base payout scales with distance to final outcome via Gaussian decay:
BasePayout = stake × specMult × gaussFactor(distance, σ)
No hard cutoffs - accuracy directly maps to return.
—
• Gaussian function integrated + parameterized
Decay function wired in and exposed for tuning via σ.
e^(−0.5 × (distance / (0.5σ))²)
Where:
– distance = deviation from final outcome
– σ = curve width
Gives smooth non-linear payout compression as distance increases. This is now the core precision primitive.
—
• Conviction levels implemented (capital scaling)
Position sizing now includes explicit conviction tiers:
1.Measured → stake only
2.Confident → stake + 1× collateral
3.Certain → stake + 2× collateral
All collateral is escrowed at entry. No leverage paths, no synthetic exposure.
• Curve shaping logic integrated (σ scaling)
Conviction directly modifies payout sensitivity:
1.Measured → σ × 1.0
2.Confident → σ × 0.65
3.Certain → σ × 0.40
Higher conviction compresses σ → tighter curve → less tolerance for error.
—
• Collateral redistribution engine completed
Loss side: full stake + collateral forfeited into pool
Win side: base payout + pro-rata share of pool
No partial recovery on losing positions. Redistribution is deterministic at settlement.
—
• Collateral bonus formula implemented
Redistribution now resolves via weighted share:
CollateralBonus = (Weight_i / Σ Weight_winners) × TotalLoserCollateral
Where:
Weight_i = stake × accuracy × convictionMultiplier
Weighting is not size-only; it includes precision and conviction.
—
• Convex payoff surface validated
System produces convex exposure across conviction tiers.
Low conviction = wider payoff distribution, lower variance
High conviction = tighter distribution, higher payoff asymmetry
Risk and precision are now independently adjustable.
—
• Convexity fee routing implemented
Conviction tiers introduce fees:
– Confident → 1%
– Certain → 2%
Fees route directly into CPR. Links high-conviction flow to LP protection.
—
• System constraints locked
– Fully collateral-backed
– No external yield assumptions
– No protocol subsidy layer
– Deterministic settlement
– Payouts capped by available collateral
Residual flows route to protocol / LP reserves.
—
• Next step
Porting RISKR logic into on-chain programs (Anchor), then wiring into settlement + vault flows for devnet deployment.
—
RISKR now functions as a conviction-weighted payout layer.
Outcome resolution is separate - capital + precision determine final distribution.
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Yes, exactly. We’re aiming to differentiate by building for both sides of the market: creators and traders.
Our goal is to deliver the most robust tooling for creators, while giving traders deeper, more expressive ways to participate.
Building a platform where both sides win is the focus.
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Prediction Markets are one of the strongest narratives on Solana right now.
We’ve already seen multiple plays in the sector run hard and that’s not random.
It’s one of the few areas in crypto with clear product-market fit.
$SIGMOID @SigmoidMarkets is starting to carve out its own lane in the space.
Sub $70K MC is real alpha.
Feels similar to $RALLY back when it was sub $100K MC.
98oXBs8bwb5b7L2k8thZDr3S2ub4H5vDNjLm7uvpump
study@study0718
Just found @SigmoidMarkets a Prediction & Precision market launchpad on Solana Pre devnet is live: connect wallet, paper trade markets, and earn points toward the $SIGMOID airdrop + leaderboard 50M tokens allocated for early users Devnet soon
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