SoundingCast

@CPalermo_Storms These may or may not be correct

@CPalermo_Storms March 2, unsure, December 10, March 14.

Warm fronts, linear slop, and EML busts… 2026 is getting kind of boring. Missing my big synoptic patterns and outbreaks. Bonus points if you can tell me which three outbreaks these are without looking! They aren’t that difficult 🥱

@GumryWX Possible brief spin-up tornado at the triple point today 😂

Triple point chasers in Iowa

@RileyMilde @NWSDesMoines

Possible brief spinup SW of Murray at approximately 6:33 pm. It lasted about 10 seconds. @NWSDesMoines

Hail recently fell in Ames, IA with a 28 degree wind chill! Very elevated thunderstorms in central Iowa at the moment.

@theforge129 @OHWXisweird

@SoundingCast @OHWXisweird thank you for the insight, 0z little rock hodograph on december 11 2021

I wonder why today only produced a meager tornado or two. Environment wise, it was pretty damn good, good LL instability and LL shear + proximity to SFC Low. We even got discrete storms. Could this be problem with too strong SRI with not enough nudgers to balance?

Northern Illinois 4-3-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 6%

Northern Missouri 4-3-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

@MassachusettsWx When does the NAM 3km not give a linear mode though? 🤣

With respect to last night's convection episode in Oklahoma/Texas. Here's the 2 top models RRFSA is up against. HRRR and NAM 3km! While RRFS didn't have linear mode convection over OK, it did well on the lead wave, NAM3k seemingly did best with the line, out of the 3, but flopped the lead cell. HRRR did well with the structure of storms.

@OHWXisweird March 5, 2022 (Winterset EF4) by comparison had steeper mid and upper level lapse rates with more shear between 1 and 6 km. Slightly more backed winds near the surface also helps.

@OHWXisweird If you ask me the lack of a closed low at 500mb for this particular instance resulted in 500mb temps being a little warmer than ideal. There’s also not a lot of shear between 1 and 6km, which combined with veered low level winds definitely lowered the tornado risk in my opinion.

Eastern Missouri 4-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 4%

Southwest Michigan 4-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Northern Illinois 4-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 2%

Eastern Iowa 4-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 5%

Southern Iowa 4-2-2026 Estimated Tornado Risk - 3%

@Lincoln_Wx Mid levels might be saturated

LLLRs are a little low, might sit this one out.

@tornadotrx @BenWx_Official Wouldn’t it be cooler because it’s not the most unstable air parcel? I would think both SB and MU parcels are adjusted for virtual temperature.

Does anybody know what the dotted yellow line parcel line indicates? Is that ECAPE?

@Drewshearer444 A strong tornado occurred last year with a similar T/Td spread and weak low level shear. Not a critique, as it has different implications on this type of setup. Just a fun note.

With the 20z ILX sounding observed, there is virtually no tornado threat given 30+ T/Td spread and weak low-level shear. As seen with much better hodographs from KCLE VWP, any tornado threat will likely be central/eastern OH into PA.

@Crazycars811 @Severity_RBX Why they got the Pilger sounding?

Incredible leak from @Severity_RBX A level of detail Twisted failed to even come close to!