Space Walker

Indian air power has been built on the cheap in the 70s and 80s. Rupee-rouble mechanism and whatever number MiG churned out, we took in. Then HAL made some more. But cheap fighters went with the USSR. As the last of the MiGs retire, along with the Jaguar and then the Mirage, a major chasm opens up. Indigenous fighters are the only realistic replacement options, purely from the financial standpoint. But for that, they have to first, exist. The Mk 2 is the 'great hope'. A reasonably good performance, modern instrumentation, sensors, weapons, EW and networking. It must take shape. If early, then produce in numbers. If late, still achieve the product and complete the design cycle. Will improve assurance for the AMCA. It cannot just depend on the experience of the Mk1/1A design cycle over decades. If Mk1A induction is delayed further, and production doesn't rev up, and the Mk2 plays hard to get, there would be no choice but to go for imports. I mean beyond the Rafale. And that would be an unfortunate situation to be in. The AMCA can't fail. And thus, there has to be investment in putting together the team. Some. Imagination is needed here. After the travails of the LCA program, I am not sure if the existing system can take it on. Possibly, in addition to the private sector consortia being considered for manufacture, a public-private sector approach to set up a tenure contract based 'dream team' may be needed. It may seem outlandish, but if private universities like Ashoka have managed to attract TOP Indian academic talent from Ivy League and top universities abroad and in India to join their faculty, some such body shopping may be needed. Except, that this time, it is quite possible that our 'Kurt Tank' will be a brown skin. Break the bank, give incentives, fund, autonomy, and govt support. Set up a team for this task beyond out eminent, distinguished, and exalted scientists. This can't meander interminably.

Because the Rafale has already entered service with the Indian Air Force. An order has also been placed for the Indian Navy. The combined value of this - being paid for by tax payers is Rs.1,23,000 cr. Infra has been set up, the IAF is deeply invested in the jet. The first new Indian Navy Rafales start coming in by mid 2028. If India were to sign the deal for 114 more Rafales soon, you can expect deliveries to also begin by 2028-29. The first prototype of the Tejas Mk 2 has still not been rolled out. Even if it is rolled out tomorrow, it will not complete flight tests and start entering squadron service before 2035 - that's a seriously optimistic date - its essentially a brand new fighter. The question to be asked is whether India needs a brand new non-stealth 4th generation jet entering service in 2035 - i.e 30 years after the USAF first started indicating F-22s and at a time when the nature of airwarfare has changed completely. This isn't remotely to suggest that the Tejas Mk-2 will be a bad platform but the evolution of air warfare, the heavy dependence on stealth and the emergence of 6th generation platforms will render the Tejas Mk-2 significantly dated by the 2030s - obsolete from a basic design standpoint. That also goes for other existing IAF jets but since one isn't going to discard the Su-30 fleet not the recently acquired Rafale fleet, which has decades of operational life left, it makes it incumbent upon us, as a nation to make hard choices. The AMCA is India's make or break moment. I talk about FCAS - that's a futuristic requirement but it's AMCA that just has to be a gamechanger for the IAF first. And there are many skeptics who doubt that that will happen. In all this, at a time when the Chinese are fielding some of the most radical designs we have seen and already have 300 odd 5th generation J-20s in service, should we blindly endorse the continued induction of 100 plus Tejas Mk-2s at more than Rs.75,000 cr which will start entering service in meaningful numbers only a decade from now?