Isaac

I am very happy and honored to share that I will be joining @Symmetry_Invest as an Investment Analyst, starting in March. I would also like to sincerely thank everyone who supported me throughout my job search. I truly appreciate the advice, encouragement and trust along the way

@stockthoughts81 I can highly recommend the @goodinvestingc events and the guide on his website is extremely comprehensive.

Who is going to Omaha this year and how do people plan to spend their time? If you plan on going - what is your favorite thing to do while there? I'm curious for miscellaneous Omaha etc. as well as specific BRK/other investor or even fintwit events RTs appreciated!

What are your favorite companies with a market cap under $500m—and why do you think they’ll outperform?

@Jave_t23 I used to only use ChatGPT and occasionally Gemini for deep research queries, and I have been using Claude for deep research for about a week now, and I feel that the output quality is much better, using similar prompts.

Claude seems a bit nicer to use for finance stuff than other AIs thus far. Nothing revolutionary, just a bit better pulling data.

Smoak Capital's 2025 Annual Letter is now available for partners and Accredited Investors. (1/3)

@rhomboid1MF @atelicinvest No worries 😂

@ValueIsaac2002 @atelicinvest Sorry misread your tweet😂

This unfortunately means that I’ll need to stop posting about specific investment ideas publicly. That said, I’m always happy to discuss things one-on-one via DMs.

I am very happy and honored to share that I will be joining @Symmetry_Invest as an Investment Analyst, starting in March. I would also like to sincerely thank everyone who supported me throughout my job search. I truly appreciate the advice, encouragement and trust along the way

Alrighty, after a lot of work, I posted a new deep dive into one stock that is high in my watchlist for this year. Go check it out! $ITECH.ST - Examining outcomes, issues and the value proposition Check on the other platform! 🙂

Call me out in a few years when all my software investments go to zero: AI (incl. “vibe coding”) commoditizes code, not systems of record. CSU owns mission‑critical systems of record in niche markets. Those moats are data, workflows, integrations & switching costs – not the difficulty of writing code. Think about what CSU actually buys: 20‑year‑old billing, practice management, municipal, utility, hospital, etc. systems that are completely entangled with how that vertical runs. Replacing them is a multi‑year capex + career‑risking project. AI doesn’t change that risk calculus. Vibe coding makes it cheap to stand up “an app”. It does not: • migrate 15 years of messy production data • recreate hundreds of integrations (banks, tax authorities, devices) • rebuild reports auditors & regulators already trust • retrain an entire workforce on new workflows Most CSU businesses sit at a control point in the value chain. They are the authoritative ledger for money, people, or regulated data. That’s qualitatively different from a point solution that sends emails or draws dashboards on top of someone else’s data. AI is great at “systems of action”: generating content, orchestrating tasks, moving data between APIs. Those are the tools that get nuked – thin SaaS wrappers around Gmail, Stripe, HubSpot, QuickBooks, etc. They have shallow data gravity and low switching costs. But systems of record (ERP/CRM/core VMS) encode: • strict data models & referential integrity • audit trails, permissions, compliance • deterministic workflows that boards, auditors, and regulators understand. You don’t vibe‑code your general ledger or your clinical records. We’ve seen a similar wave already: low‑code/no‑code. For a decade you could drag‑and‑drop your own business app. Did enterprises kill SAP, Oracle, or niche ERPs? No – they use low‑code at the edges while keeping standardized core systems. AI just turns that dial further. The “every company will build their own ERP with AI agents” story underestimates non‑coding costs: product mgmt, domain expertise, change mgmt, security, incident response, integration maintenance. Most CSU end‑markets don’t even have the teams to run that experiment. On margins: AI is more likely to be margin‑accretive for CSU‑type vendors. It: • boosts dev productivity (faster features/integrations with same R&D) • automates support, onboarding, documentation • improves internal ops (billing, collections, forecasting) Can buyers use AI to squeeze prices? Some, at the margin. But in most CSU verticals, software is 1–2% of revenue and mission‑critical. The binding constraint is risk, not license cost. As long as the app works and is maintained, there isn’t much appetite to rock the boat. Meanwhile vendors can repackage AI as upsell: copilots, agents, forecasting, process mining. Core ERP/CRM pricing stays per‑seat/per‑site; AI is a new line item or higher tier. That’s ARPU expansion, not commoditization. The code got cheaper – the outcome got more valuable. Where AI really hurts is exactly what you flagged: point solutions. Single‑feature SaaS that: • sits at the UI layer • talks to a few APIs • has no proprietary data model or workflow depth. Those become prompts: “Hey model, do what this $30/month SaaS was doing.” Net effect: • Point solutions & generic horizontal tools: heavy pressure. • Core vertical systems of record: AI is an add‑on + cost reducer, not a replacement. • CSU’s skill set (buying sticky, boring, regulated, low‑IT‑budget software) is aligned with where AI is least disruptive. Could AI still reshuffle winners within verticals? Sure. Incumbents that ignore AI may lose to incumbents that embrace it. Some CSU properties will under‑invest and stagnate. But that’s competition at the margin, not “vibe coding obsoletes the whole business model.” So why doesn’t AI commoditize CSU? Because their moat isn’t lines of code. It’s being the entrenched, audited, regulator‑blessed system that runs payroll, billing, tax, and operations for thousands of tiny niches. AI will sit on top of that stack long before it replaces it. Oh and I haven't even started talking about the complexity of running a software company and building a team. $CSU.TO $ACP.WA $SGN.WA $TOI.V $LMN.V

Posted Q4 letter on my website. I write about our investment framework around AI (focusing on applications) and our investment in health insurers $ELV and $MOH.

Alta Fox is hiring for a full-time junior research analyst in our Connecticut office. This is a great role for individuals with a passion for the public markets that have 1-4 years of work experience coming from investment banking, sell-side equity research, or asset management. More information here: altafoxcapital.com/junior-researc…

I'm excited to announce that I founded @CapuchinCapital in 2025 to begin managing external capital. I owe an incredible thanks to the whole MicroCapClub and Twitter/X communities for supporting and mentoring me over the years. In particular @iancassel has always encouraged me to grow and achieve new things, and I look forward to what the future brings out on my own. As always, my DMs and website contact are open if you would like to connect!

@Arregius @ReturnsJourney I get that angle. The question is what your goal with the thread was, as it may not fully align with how I read it. But if the goal is to pitch an idea, the key is explaining risk and reward, both of which are to a large extent driven by valuation...

@ValueIsaac2002 @ReturnsJourney I tried not to give multiples, tried to lay my understanding so someone can build upon it and give any further insight

#GDWN Goodwin PLC: A 140-year-old "generational investment" hitting a massive financial inflection point right now. It’s rare to find a century-old industrial player transforming into a high-growth compounding machine. Let's dive in. 🧵

Longs in an illiquid microcap when it trades up 50% on $20k volume.

@Arregius @ReturnsJourney I find it very helpful to understand where the author believes the company will trade (multiples) in 1-3 years under their stated assumptions, as that makes it easier to assess whether the idea clears my own return hurdle, if I come to the same conclusion as the author…

@ValueIsaac2002 @ReturnsJourney I agree and disagree. Valuation is indeed an opinion. I am sure we could reach different valuations based on what each of us know + our conviction and more importanly timeframe. Of course saying this trades at x TTM multiple is a fact, but when you put forward multiples…

@Arregius @ReturnsJourney Valuation is not an opinion. The underlying assumptions might be, but given certain assumptions, whether a valuation is expensive or cheap relative to a given hurdle rate is mechanical and not just vibes. Still great thread, enjoyed reading it!

@ReturnsJourney I laid out the facts, valuation is an opinion

@drdmarkoulis No actually sold MFC quite sometime ago. One of my favorite ideas right now, though I think the R/R in my other cases is juts higher... Bought only small amount of NOW recently, as I expect a high probability of strong Quarters ahead

@ValueIsaac2002 Sold hospital business to double down on $NOW.V ,interesting indeed.

Portfolio Update Q4FY25 Positions going into 2026: $NOW.V 45% $SUP.L 25% $VPR.AX 23% Undisclosed 7% Perfomance 2023: +7% 2024: +25% 2025: -16% I am not satisfied with the results, given the –16% performance this year. However, the underperformance was not driven ...