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➡️ Can we trust the US and Israel will abandon hostilities after the ceasefire expires?
Absolutely not. And it’s naïve to think otherwise.
This ceasefire is considered fragile by all metrics. Meaning, the probability of hostilities resuming is high.
As one Iranian editor said, "A ceasefire, compromise, and negotiation are a gift to the enemy,” and would give them time to rebuild.
He’s not wrong. We’re running low on high-cost munitions:
“The United States can still produce the munitions it needs. The more difficult question is whether it can sustain that production in a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.”
The US can’t. In fact, the DoD highlighted defense supply chain vulnerabilities in a 2022 report, concluding that aging facilities, compliance requirements, and rigid processes limit the ability to increase production quickly and meet demand.
The US is trying to shift itself from producing exquisite high-cost munitions to producing low-cost munitions, but at a higher volume.
In 2025, the Pentagon Munitions Acceleration Council allocated approximately 97% of funds to exquisite, high-cost munitions, and only 3% to low-cost, high-volume munitions. However, the Pentagon plans to shift that percentage once they conclude testing and operational use of their “new entrants” (new weapons).
Ask me for sources and I shall provide :)
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