Magnum

@jonbrooks We are in the complete opposite of a bubble.

Are we in a housing bubble? Yes or no.

@kindadopebro Far too cynical of a position to have

@balancedtalks It’s because you just cannot believe just anybody who runs a damn business. Nobody’s reliable anymore. Everybody lies or commits fraud or is involved in something malicious. It’s so stupid

@claudiothesame Thank you for reading the article. I think it is obvious some portfolios are much better than others, but it’s not possible to get a real answer.

@balancedtalks thanks. good article. I read Christopher Whalen often. He is saying the same thing. PIK has become something else.

@parella_anthony @DavidBCollum So you’re telling me Dave’s family member yesterday, was the first person in the galaxy to ask an LLM about the stock market performance since Iran and ChatGPT scrubbed Groks data in real time to update its answer? Is that what you’re implying?

@balancedtalks @DavidBCollum He scapes this info off other sources in real time.

Got this email from a family member: "I wanted to know how much the stock market was down since the war started.   I asked ChatGPT that told me that was a difficult question because war had not been declared in Iran.  I narrowed the question by asking how much since the most recent combined US and Israeli bombing started.  It told me there was no official combined effort.  I put in some more clarification and got more BS.  I gave up a went to Grok.  There I was very specific but got more obfuscation….markets are volatile and stocks were down 4-8%.  I finally just asked how much the S&P was down from 2/27 to today.  I finally got an answer.  I checked it, and they had it right.  What is that?"

@culture57512 @TheSalonDon Won’t (operationally nearly impossible) happen! Trump can “truth” out insurance coverage all he wants until he realizes there’s 500 employees in the department who would assume this and they’ve never done anything like it before. Disaster is an understatement

@TheSalonDon Unless Trump backstops the insurance via government mandated reinsurance. At that point, you are debasing your own currency and throwing various markets completely out sync. In simple terms, this is an utter disaster on all fronts.

The reason US can’t open the strait is not about military might It’s about insurance Even if it was physically possible for 5,000 marines to storm Hormuz and control a city with 1 million residents As long as Iran says the strait is closed If any form of Iran exists within 300 miles of the strait There’s still a 5% chance Iran can send a missile and destroy a billion dollar boat An insurance company isn’t taking a 5% chance And a shipping company isn’t going anywhere without insurance

My thoughts on how private credit mangers can rebuild investor confidence in this weekend's @barronsonline: First, they should cut fees: "A lower fee structure would go a long way toward improving managers’ standing with investors". Investors will return to the asset class if returns are higher. The easiest way to accomplish that is to allocate more of the return to clients. Second, repurchase shares of their listed BDCs at a material discount to NAV, as it is highly accretive: “How in good conscience can managers underwrite new loans at 8% or 9% when their stocks yield 13%?” Lastly, some advice for allocators: "Stay out of the nontraded BDCs", because you are mainly serving as exit liquidity.

@iamphil123 @Ben35Dnny76257 @tawnytowers1981 @MomAngtrades @StatisticUrban Idk who’s the bigger loser here. This guy for constantly having a rage posting crusade against circumcision, or me for finding it absolutely hilarious and seeing what he does next.

@Ben35Dnny76257 @tawnytowers1981 @MomAngtrades @StatisticUrban Now try explaining that again after you take a few more English courses.

Circumcision is on the decline in the US. For the first time in decades, less than 50% of American newborn boys are circumcised. You might think this is due to demographic shifts. Latinos have very low circumcision rates, and are a larger and increasing share of total births. And this is part of it. But what's also interesting is the decline amongst white Americans. They declined by 5.3pts, from 65.3% to 60.0%. And it's not just a wealth or insurance thing either. The wealthiest Americans, the top income decile, experienced one of the largest declines. In 2022, only 51.4% of them were circumcised, nearly 10pts lower than 2012.

This person will suffer no less of reputation when this doesn’t happen. Why? Because warning people about a crash makes you seem “smart” in this industry. It’s bizarre.

@Ben35Dnny76257 @MomAngtrades @StatisticUrban If you are a real person, I am genuinely impressed by the scale of your commitment to this crusade of yours.

@balancedtalks @MomAngtrades @StatisticUrban Wow you almost sound like a pedophile do you normally compare your son's penis to other penises

@markcecchini One of the better analogies I’ve read in quite some time

knowing how to prep income taxes is kind of like being the only one in your friend group with a pickup truck now everyone want me to use TurboTax to help them commit tax fraud

@jason_howerton x.com/balancedtalks/…

The American nightmare Renting studio apartment for $3k in NYC Pushing 40 and still “bar hopping” Getting checked for STDs monthly No one cares if you come home at night Spending Saturday night chasing 🐱 Wake up Sunday hungover, don’t go to church What a life 🔥

@MomAngtrades @StatisticUrban #1 reason I circumcised my son. Wasn’t having him be a freak his whole life.

@StatisticUrban I know this will get hate, but uncircumcised penises are weird looking.

@scottyfred1 @T_Gatzemeier Nothing farms engagement like talking about fees

@balancedtalks @T_Gatzemeier This is the correct answer

Honest question that I cannot wrap my head around… Why are there still financial advisors putting their clients into mutual funds with an expense ratio of 1% or more?

The American wannabe Crippling Credit Card Debt 2 rooms in your 800 sqft apartment 2 friends who don’t even like you A life with no real purpose Failed internet hookups frequently Depressing Sunday mornings alone DoorDash ethnic food 7x a week what a life 🔥

@nypost Dave Ramsey became a billionaire by telling young people to take no risks in life and to live in crime-infested areas because it’s all you can afford and you should be happy about that.

Dave Ramsey warns young hopefuls locked out of housing market: 'Corporate America has screwed you' trib.al/5ZbAQEi

@zerohedge @QTRResearch I’ve detailed the timeline in an easy to read format here on @X 👇

The Private Credit Crisis Is Spreading zerohedge.com/markets/privat…

@NickNemo17 Bad advisors are a key catalyst why private credit is having unnecessary stress. This is separate from the real underlying credit issues.

I think everyone should reconsider financial advisors. Ask if you need to be babysat. For 75-100 bps of drag per year. Claude is probably better. #1 way to figure out if your advisor should be fired: He hasn’t put in a redemption request for $CCLFX or similar private credit vehicle. Not because I’m guaranteed to be right, But because I may be, and it costs nothing. You can rescind it. If your advisor put you in something levered that will take quarters to get out, And there’s no CYA. He is inept. I think the best assets always get sold first, and slow-pokes get stuck with increasingly bad marks, but I could be wrong. I am not wrong in saying any fiduciary so complacent they are not printing an exit ticket you don’t have to take isn’t worth the paper his certificates are printed on. You can literally buy a BDC at a discount if you think PC is oversold. The assets often overlap. This game theory is why Cliffwater must fail (in my opinion), and the forced selling must come. But that’s another story.