Samuel
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Samuel
@basedgooch666
Are you ready to die Slavoj Žižek? / looking for images / listening to music
参加日 Nisan 2014
379 フォロー中139 フォロワー

people always say this when it’s a lynch screening and it turns out people were laughing during the movie like yeah he makes funny movies. specially blue velvet which is hilarious
moo☄️@girlpatbateman
Really awful experience :(
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@jerryasleep @girlpatbateman I throw my popcorn up in the air whenever Frank shows up like it’s a screening of rocky horror picture show
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@girlpatbateman If I have to guess prob male audience who cheers for Frank Boothe and causing a ruckus
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Samuel がリツイート

My Mid-Week economic thoughts:
I’ve been spending a lot of time this week thinking less about growth forecasts and more about how markets are actually discounting risk right now. When you strip away the narratives, the signals that matter most are still the price of time, the plumbing underneath liquidity, and whether credit is willing to cooperate.
On rates, the important move hasn’t been in the Fed narrative — it’s been in real yields. Ten-year TIPS have backed off their recent highs, and that alone goes a long way toward explaining why risk assets continue to hold in despite the absence of rate cuts. Markets don’t wait for policy shifts; they reprice the discounting mechanism first. As long as real yields aren’t pressing higher, duration and optionality can stay supported even when the macro conversation feels uneasy.
Liquidity this past week was a good reminder that stress rarely shows up where people expect it. Year-end funding pressures pushed banks into the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility at elevated levels, which isn’t a sign of systemic trouble, but it is a real-time reminder that the system still relies on backstops when balance sheets tighten. That’s not about “easy policy” — it’s about where pressure shows up when timing and funding matter. Liquidity doesn’t disappear with a headline; it quietly stops showing up.
Credit continues to be the cleanest truth serum. High-yield spreads remain tight, lower-quality debt hasn’t meaningfully widened, and refinancing channels are still open. Historically, sustained equity drawdowns don’t start with earnings disappointments — they start when credit refuses to play along. That simply isn’t happening yet. Cycles don’t end because growth slows; they end when balance sheets can’t roll.
What’s more interesting is how volatility is being priced. Headline measures like VIX remain suppressed, but tail risk protection is still being quietly bid. That combination usually reflects uncertainty about timing rather than complacency. Institutions aren’t worried about day-to-day noise, but they’re not ignoring the possibility of larger dislocations either.
The behavior of gold and Bitcoin fits that same pattern. Both remain elevated despite positive real rates, which makes the usual inflation-hedge explanation feel incomplete. When assets with no yield stay bid in that environment, it often says more about confidence in the system than about growth or CPI prints. This doesn’t look like panic — it looks like insurance against policy error or fiscal drift.
All of this ties back to the same structural theme I keep coming back to: constraints matter more than narratives. Power and grid capacity are a good example. AI, data centers, electrification, defense, and reshoring all converge on electricity, and transmission simply can’t be scaled on software timelines. That’s not a theme — it’s a bottleneck. When constraints bind, pricing power migrates to owners rather than producers.
If that framework is roughly right, it helps explain why certain types of equities keep showing up. Scarcity rent collectors like Texas Pacific Land benefit when physical assets matter again. Companies like Quanta Services sit in the middle of non-discretionary grid rebuilds. Applied Digital is a way to express physical AI infrastructure rather than software narratives. Arch Capital reflects the ability to underwrite volatility when uncertainty rises. Nucor fits the quiet return of domestic steel tied to infrastructure and reshoring rather than pure GDP sensitivity.
None of these are meant as “best ideas.” They’re simply expressions of how capital behaves when time, trust, and physical constraints start to matter more than stories.
I’ll keep tracking how these signals evolve week to week — especially whether credit or funding markets stop confirming what equities are doing. That’s usually where the real story begins.
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Samuel がリツイート

@broiledcrawfish Tweet is less funny when you find out it's from a gay guy. Of course you're going to be at the club. The gay club. To have rough trade gay sex, which is where you would be, because you're gay. It doesn't mean anything.
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Samuel がリツイート

@AngelsEgg_anime thank you angels egg social media account. I missed it in theaters but I made up for it by streaming it on my phone from youtube 🩷
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Thank you to everyone who loves Angel’s Egg.
Wishing you all a wonderful year ahead.
『天使のたまご』を愛してくれた皆さまに、心からの感謝を。
どうぞ、よいお年をお迎えください。
#天使のたまご #AngelsEgg
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