C L o U d B O Y E 🇺🇦🇵🇸

An Israeli academic, Orit Perlov, posted a tweet in Hebrew, later deleted, in which she argued that confronting Iran requires a harsh religious approach targeting Iranian children, citing biblical references to the killing of newborns. She claimed similar tactics were previously applied in Gaza, where over 14,000 children were killed according to UN statistics, and suggested applying the same model in Iran and Lebanon. She also stated that instead of targeting power stations, if top Iranian officials cannot be reached, their children should be killed.

Is this the best timed trade of 2026? At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought. This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute. Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway. By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap. That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes. Absolutely incredible.

Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.

It is worthy of note that the group which is claiming responsibility for the burning of ambulances last night refers to Palestine as “the land of Israel.” It does so in both English and Arabic, which is particularly unusual.

🇱🇧 The Roman temple of Bacchus at Baalbek, Lebanon is one of the largest and most intact temples left of the Roman Levant (2nd century CE)