SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

56 posts

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

@dbdurr

参加日 Ağustos 2009
27 フォロー中35 フォロワー
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis@dbdurr·
@aleabitoreddit I share my live trading alerts (entry and exit points) on WhatsApp. Join for free! ✅ ➡️ Copy the search query and reply with "555" to WhatsApp: + 18025383106 🎥 - Daily Live Trading 📖 - Trading Recap ☢️ - Personal Strategy
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I've always maintained $POET can get designed out and likely would in a few years for $MRVL. Especially as hyperscalers tend to vertically integrate upstream, I just didn't expect it so soon. For me to be bullish, $POET would have needed to multi-source to multiple hyperscaler supply chains rather than just Marvell. However, this goes this show: There's a reason why all the Laser companies are worth tens of billions. Laser design and fab is much more difficult than companies like $POET buying the lasers to package them. If $MRVL were completely reliant on $POET, they wouldn't break off the engagement despite the NDA, so it does feel like an excuse. Poet was just the fastest time to market given it's already designed into Celestial, but serves more as a Gen-1 bridge. Regardless all the hyperscalers require a light source (which is much much more difficult to vertically integrate): And after $NVDA went and bought out allocation for $LITE, $COHR... There's not many laser suppliers left aside from $SIVE. There's a lot of nuances markets might miss, but packaging layers are different than laser layers. It's highly likely now $MRVL just buys lasers directly from Sivers (which is even more bullish) given they already match Celestial specifications. And also highly likely Marvell multi-sources with $MTSI and $LITE (if there's any capacity left).
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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
Muraum@Muraum_

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for consistently sharing … must be tough having a lot of people ping you lol You think this causes any delays / issues to you $sive thesis long term given the delay to the celestial roadmap? Looking to position on $sive on market open tomorrow

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Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
Liquidity@0xLiquidAssets

@aleabitoreddit Do you think Marvel would source the lasers directly from sivers? That’s an options right?

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry. Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk. On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story) It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this. That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.
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SarauityPrecise Market Analysis
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis@dbdurr·
300-calorie lunch hack for weight loss! Grilled chicken (120g) + quinoa ( cup cooked) + roasted veggies (zucchini, bell pepper, cherry tomatoes) + a drizzle of olive oil. High protein, fiber, u0026 flavor—no crash, just energy! #WeightLossMeal #HealthyEats
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Karime
Karime@Karimetalkstou·
"Today’s tiny win: Built a cardboard fort + had a pillow fight inside. Messy floors = happy memories. #ParentingMoments #ToddlerLife"
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