احسان صالحی
1.9K posts
@ehsan_sa
من اگر جاهل گمراهم اگر شیخ طریق، قبلهام روی حسین است و همینم دین است
BREAKING. Thirty-six hours ago President Donald Trump said “obliterate.” This morning he said “productive conversations.” The question every trader, diplomat, and general is asking: what broke between Saturday night and Monday morning? Six things broke simultaneously. Not one of them was Iranian. First. The bill arrived. The Pentagon requested over $200 billion in supplemental funding. The war cost $11.3 billion in six days, $16.5 billion in twelve. At $1.38 billion per day and accelerating, congressional resistance to the supplemental is real. The money that was supposed to fund “days not weeks” now needs a vote that may not pass. Second. The Fed killed the rate-cut thesis. On March 18, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent and revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7 percent from 2.4, citing the Iran war energy shock. The dot plot shows one cut in all of 2026, down from two. Every basis point of delayed easing is pain for housing, credit, and the Magnificent Seven. The war that was supposed to demonstrate strength is demonstrating inflation. Third. The allies revolted politely. Twenty-two countries signed up to coordinate on Hormuz. Zero committed a warship during combat. Japan is releasing strategic reserves. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 12 percent. Europe’s gas surged 35 percent after Qatar’s LNG was knocked offline & declared force majeure up to 5 years. Trump called NATO “cowards” and got a press release. The coalition of the willing is a coalition of the waiting. Fourth. TSMC sent the signal. Taiwan imports nearly 97 percent of its energy. Its LNG reserves cover 11 days. Qatar supplies a third of global helium, which TSMC needs for chip fabrication. The helium is bottled behind a closed strait. Every Nvidia GPU, every Apple chip, every AI cluster depends on a fab in Hsinchu counting its gas in single-digit days. The Magnificent Seven have shed hundreds of billions as energy rotation crushes tech. Fifth. Birol named the damage. The IEA chief told Australia this morning that 40 energy assets across nine countries are severely damaged, global oil supply has fallen 11 million barrels per day, the crisis exceeds both 1970s shocks combined, and no country is immune. He named fertilisers and helium as interrupted flows. The man who runs global energy security called the war Trump started the worst energy crisis in modern history. Sixth. The midterms. Gas prices are up 93 cents per gallon. Sixty-six percent of Americans call this a war of choice. Sixty percent disapprove. Fifty-seven percent say it is going badly. The numbers that matter in Washington are not barrels per day. They are approval ratings in swing states where voters fill their tanks every Tuesday. Six pressures. One post. President Trump did not discover diplomacy. He discovered arithmetic. The 48-hour ultimatum was a threat. The 5-day pause is a confession that the threat’s consequences were worse than its target. Destroying power plants would have sealed the strait permanently, triggered Ghalibaf’s promise to “irreversibly destroy” Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure, crashed TSMC’s supply chain, spiked inflation past 3 percent, and handed the midterms to the opposition on a platter of $7 gasoline. The pause is real. The relief is not. The strait is still closed. The 40 assets are still damaged. The fertiliser is still blocked. The planting window is still closing. The five-day clock is already ticking. The molecules do not negotiate. The molecules wait. Full deep dive analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
ابرقدرت نگو، ابرقُدقُد! میگویند سگ را چه بزنی چه بترسانی! سگ زرد کودک آزار هنوز مهلت ۴۸ساعته اش تمام نشده، عقب نشینی کرد. ملعون! تو که میگفتی همه را ترور کرده ام و در ایران کسی نیست که با او مذاکره کنیم؟ حالا با چه کسی مذاکره سازنده کرده ای؟ بگو از ترسِ چیزتَه کَسَگم؟!
ونحن نواجه العدوان الإيراني الغاشم ونكتشف قوتنا الراسخة على الثبات والصمود، لا يتوقف تفكيرنا عند وقف إطلاق النار، بل يتجه إلى حلول تضمن أمنًا مستدامًا في الخليج العربي، تكبح التهديد النووي والصواريخ والمسيرات وبلطجة المضائق. فلا يُعقل أن يتحول العدوان إلى حالة دائمة من التهديد.
خروج از برجام، شهادت حاج قاسم، جنگ ۱۲روزه و زدن تأسیسات هستهای، هر چه خویشتنداری کردیم و پاسخ کنترلشده دادیم ترامپ هارتر شد. حالا ایران تشدید تنش را انتخاب کرده است. یکی بزنی دو تا و بلکه چند تا میخوری آن هم به هفت روش سامورایی، نه فقط همان شکلی که خودت زدی. جواب میدهد!
رضا پهلوی گفته زیرساخت رو نزنید. مگه این زیرساختآب و برق رو جمهوری اسلامی نساخته؟ مگه این زیرساختها حکومتی نیست؟ پلیس و نظامی متعلق به جمهوری اسلامیه و نیروگاه و پالایشگاهی که مهندس و دانشمند جمهوری اسلامی ساخته، متعلق به ایرانه؟ پس تفکیک حکومتی و مردمی در هر چیزی غلطه.
@AzadehMoaveni in @NewYorker profile: "No monarch in two and a half millennia of Persian history has invited a foreign power to attack the land of Iran, and nowhere in the long literary tradition of royal counsel—known as andarznameh, or “mirror for princes”—has an exception been made for the cause of ending domestic tyranny. This is the current predicament of Pahlavi." 👇
🎥 رسوا شدن خبرنگار ضدانقلاب دربرابر ایرانیهای ساکن آلمان
ج.ا. خیلی جدی برای آمریکا شرط آتشبس تعیین کرده و گفته باید پرسنل ایراناینترنشنال رو بهش تحویل بدن. جدا از اینکه کسخل هستن، عزتنفس هم ندارن. خاک بر سرتون واقعا. حکومت هستید مثلا؟ میرید وسط مذاکرات جنگ بعد چند تا روزنامهنگار طلب میکنید؟
“…I trust the Marines, not that guy… we did Iwo Jima, we can do this too…” Somebody tell this sadistic sack of excrement that the Marines lost when the Navy gamed this out in practice. Notice how he casually invokes Iwo Jima. Over 6,800 Americans died in that battle. He’s already mentally prepared himself for those kinds of numbers.
👇Fmr US Army major & DIA officer @Harrison_J_Mann on why Kharg risks becoming a major quagmire. Taking it would be difficult, whether amphibious, heliborne, or airborne assault. Holding it risks insurgency from its 20,000 residents, trapping US forces, rapid mission creep.
