Hadiya Roderique

Deeply disappointed to learn that funding has been cancelled for the wastewater surveillance program in Ontario. This has been critical information not only for COVID-19, but other infectious disease threats (Influenza, RSV, MPox, Polio & now H5N1) in Ontario.

Any suggestion of a national Covid 1-day isolation policy is a catastrophic misinterpretation of medical evidence that will severely harm tens of millions. I define a Covid "wave" as a sustained period of >500,000 U.S. infections per day, and a "surge" as a sustained period of >1 million daily infections. We are currently in the 2nd largest surge ever. Reviewing the 1st graph of the full pandemic, note that the number of days with <500,000 infections has decreased over the course of the pandemic. A 1-day isolation policy means throwing lighter fluid on the raging fire of transmission. Non-wave phases of <500,000 infections/day would become limited. Surges would become more common, less predictable based on the time point of the calendar and forecasting models, and have greater variability and magnitude in peak. The prospect of a BA.1-level surge or half that would re-enter possibility. We have had 8 waves, with people in the U.S. infected an average of 3.2 times so far. Each reinfection increases the cumulative risk of long Covid and harms health and productivity in the acute phase. Many continue to die or become disabled in the acute illness phase, and the long-term phase is more problematic. With more transmission, expect greater discontinuity in societal function. Work and school closures. Flight delays. Political and economic disruption. Rising institutions for societal good falling when the leader becomes disabled or dies and lacks a succession plan. Sick days galore. Those paying attention would increasingly lay low, tending to their health, working remotely, passing up "opportunities," home schooling. Cognitive and emotional dyregulation would rise. Accidents. Funerals. Shortages would emerge in critical occupations, products, and supplies. Daily life would be more similar to a wave or surge, but chronic. All of this would be worse in the Northeastern U.S., based on prior patterns of transmission, and no evidence of substantive long-term immunity to infection. All of this would be catastrophic for people with cancer and other known or unknown health vulnerabilities. The acceleration of acute and long-term effects of infection could result in unrest, political and economic instability, and pressure for mitigation. That is the forecast. The future is unwritten and malleable.