Trace

$BTC 3 days ago, I said new highs are coming. The shorts didn't listen and have been punished. I'm saying the same now, of new highs coming. The shorts are once again not listening. And will be punished.

$BTC longs Managing the long. A slight sentiment shift over the weekend. Alright, heading a bit lower here into a slow retail size bleed. On this move, and within the liquidity maps, I have good news, and bad news. The bad news is that institutions are still asleep during the weekend. Usually not a problem as my system still works over weekends. But over Saturday Night, we had somewhat of sentiment shift, where after we posted our long idea and retest to 77.5k target, and went long, many copy it and suddenly expect higher. Those are the same people who were bearish and started bear posting from 70k, 72k and still did it from 76k where they went short massively expecting sub 50k loudly, now abandoned that idea and almost pulled a full 180 expecting my retest target of 77.5k. They could be right and I think they are, but what's important for us is the timing, as always, and use that as a sentiment read (markets are about timing, we are timing the market) My institutional POI's aren't as effective when sentiment shifts occur and when their liquidity rules the board especially when they all abandoned their ideas. It makes me locally a bit bearish, now that our 76k level broke down again. However, it's only weekend sentiment shifts, so naturally, it likely only takes place over the weekend. I fully expect it to be cleared into beginning next week and institutions take over, and that is indeed, the good news. Managing our trade What's important, is how we manage our long trade through this. In this type of situation, two things can be done. First is to just exit now and accept the loss and re-enter begin next week. But personally, I didn't go too big so if you have room to manage it, it makes sense to just hold through the weekend with some further patience, and then once liquidity is cleared, add to the position. If you do that, I want to stress not to ad too early and only ad once. E.g. I wouldn't ad now, and I am not adding now, but only wait for the liquidity to be taken out with some confirmation. Then your avg is a lot lower but more importantly, you are putting in the right practices of entering when most weekend liquidity gives up. That's what institutions do, so that's what we do. Institutions almost always win, and so if we detect their signature and do the same, we almost always win. So, a bit unfortunate event of having our ideas being copied. And N.B, I don't mean that in the way of "Astro went long so the rest went long", no ego is allowed in trading. It's purely the event itself and us recognizing it and acting on it. It's all about expecting it, preparing mentally, and continuing to track them. We want them to give up after the weekend into Monday, Tuesday, because after shorting/being this entire leg up, we want them to continue to expect that, not suddenly go max conviction long. If that happens, I take the loss. All good, we longed this entire leg up and taking one loss is all fair. But for now, I don't think the loss is done yet, it's time to follow this plan, at least, for me personally.

$BTC 3 days ago, I said new highs are coming. The shorts didn't listen and have been punished. I'm saying the same now, of new highs coming. The shorts are once again not listening. And will be punished.

$BTC Full analysis, plan and why it's not worth to be overly bearish, nor overly bullish either Local lows (75.3k) are unsafe, but I don't expect a deep bear market. Good morning. As you all know, my bullish bias established in the 80-85k range, where I expected the range to reach 95k and especially 112k, has just been invalidated. It held 11 weeks, we got a 20% move, got 95k move. From it, had a few wins (8), but also 2 losses I took myself (and 3 suggested trades), so let's count it as 3. Two losses defly from being too confident in 112k from the 80-85k range. Still confident in that level, but not from a trading perspective worth mentioning. So 3 losses, 8 wins certainly not ideal and below my standards/usual record, I made some clear mistakes as well as no readiness for unclear weekend-macro events etc. I certainly expected this bias to hold for longer and price going higher, but ah well. About my PnL throughout this range, it started out really well, of course as many know, but then ended up giving a large amount of it back unfortunately. Also wish I sold a lot more of my spot positions at 125k, as you know only posted to sell a tiny amount at 125k, same for $ETH at 5k. And of course, the first compounds of spot at 84k we aimed to sell at 112k, I also still hold and are below entry (for now). Plan next During times like this, draw boarding needs to be heavier as plan didn't work out. So I'm exactly sharing here what my plan is next, what I will do with my positions (action = key), and what type of trades (long or short) I am looking for as well as where, giving a deep summary and comments on thought process (which is key). As you know, I like to be thorough, one line doesn't define a trade, only a thorough system does especially now after taking some losses. And only the thorough reader gets access to my full plan. Top to bottom On big drawboarding sessions, always going from top to bottom (high timeframe then to lower timeframe). On the very high cyclical timeframe, I already expressed how, if my bias would fail and we close below 81k (not yet done but let's expect it for now), it's going somewhat lower, but it's not going to be a deep bear market. I drew the next purple POI (as per usual, purple weekly POI = similar style to every weekly low I called in the past) where I expect price to at least put in a serious countertrend rally from. To 112k? I'll get to that in later posts, not relevant right now. But it will be a "bottom" worth buying long timeframe on local confirmations The purple POI is quite a way below us but it indeed is not a classic -80% bear market, only 50% off the all time high. Another reason why I wasn't all too bearish high timeframe as it wasn't as important. I'm still wrong of course but as long as longs are exited, it's all fine. This worst case (but now turning likely) case of scenario is what I quietly once thought about would be the worst if I was wrong and we topped 125k, so here it is, the devils verdict I didn't but any weight on. I don't guarantee it yet, like I said, it's not entirely clear where I think the market will go next, so very much an if this, then that type of post here, with a worst case scenario (purple) in mind, but key to have for our long term (spot BTC, alts on confirmation only) thoughts. Moving down a timeframe (H6/H12, where my edge is focused and where I trade actively), We have weekend lows, as well as favourable cyclical timing for lower (cycle not done yet, more on that later). To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that , but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart. We also still have the 90.8k key level we pointed out which still held itself very strongly. To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that as you know, but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart. My actions So, actions follow naturally from plan here, giving both spot and trade actions Positional actions (spot multi-day/weekly timeframe) Since my bullish bias is invalidated, I am naturally no longer actively looking for longs. But also because I don't expect a deep bear market, I am not selling any spot here, I am in 80% in here, avg entry 34k, which used to be 21.5k (I'm sure many remember this post), but due to the recent ads at 84k 11 weeks ago, has gone up of course.. That's still a comfy entry, if you have a similar entry (I assume the minority I only had about 5k followers or so back at our $BTC 21.5k call. So I can already hear you: "what if I only bought 84k spot and I didn't have any before?" In that case, if you are heavily allocated, I would try to sell some (half) right now and especially getting closer to 90.8k (gradual but aggressive selling) I don't think selling all makes sense, given my expectations of not receiving much worse than a 50% drawdown at worst, and 84k already being down 30% from ath, are still decent entries. But it's good to keep a large portion open for the purple below to correct overall entry and position better for the next bull run. Swing trade actions (futures) Per last $BTC post, no longer exposed in perps, and bullish bias invalidated. I am not overly bearish as is clear from the chart, but shifted neutral. That means looking for a range for me to establish that neutral range and get back to trading it as well. Again not entirely clear where the range will form yet. But happy to trade it as we go. Not from the long side for now, but only from the short side, as I indeed see weekend lows get cleared and they also are defined weak on the TPO. But I'm not shorting from right here, rather closer to 90.8k (our key pivot/reclaim) for better RR as well as closing CME gap first i.e. 84k, only then targeting weekend lows. What if we go full moon (after taking weekend lows)? It's always possible, and doing so before hitting purple is of course also possible. But I don't see it likely at all before hitting weekend lows first, and even after, we very likely clear out the Mar-May lows first, and that already puts us close to purple, which should be deemed a magnet on proximity for demand and spread manipulation reasons. If it does happen though, I will gladly sell spot at 112k, the still existing magnet, but then expect a large downswing which I will look to short for a large move down. So in short, only looking for shorts at the moment. $BTC trends (down in this case) can extend, there still is money there, so that's what I look to grab, whilst keeping in mind high timeframe the bottom is likely far closer than many think (still going somewhat against the sentiment of this cycle playing out like 2022 and this range leading us all the way to 30k). Don't think so, likely bottoming much higher, but not yet and closer to the middle of the year. Trade entries will be shared live as always (which is key), and I always look to confirm with local order flow and will comment on it. Summary;TLDR In short, BTC broke my bullish bias, which I didn't deem likely, but here it is. This means I am not bullish for a while. I am not overly bearish either high timeframe as just expressed as I don't see lower than 60k, which isn't worth being bearish for, can't make much from selling spot in full and buying back lower, that's too risky. Instead just looking to swing trade, with taking a short if we hit CME close first, targeting weekend lows. If weekend lows are hit first, I will not be looking to long, at least not with heavy confirmation first. Going full moon is also possible right after clearing weekend lows, but I don't see that likely at all here after bullish bias invalidation. That is my plan for now, plus actions. Backed by price action, range theory, cyclical analysis, liquidity arrangement and my own core edge. So all-in-all, not too bad to hold spot through, which is why I am holding it. Key is to get in the right trades, and up the win rate again from the recent 8/11 wins (=72%) without forcing it. Final disclaimers I never guarantee 100% win rate. But I do always aim making (very good) money if risk managed well. I do know it's joyful going all in because you found me not missing for a long period on trades in a recent time right after you found me such as some dm's. But do risk manage, a good start is taking the same size on every trade. Yes, some of those dm's did proceed of people being liquidated because of my last 2/3 trades. But then I asked what size they took and it was 4 times higher than the wins I posted as they gained confidence in my streak. Not logical as most trades were exited before even hitting -1R and not held in long drawdown. Always same size (scaled to timeframe is the healthiest check. Enjoy the analysis, plan and comments on risk management.

$BTC longs 67k now. ✅We're up and running Alright! Nice reaction so far off our long entry we took Yesterday in live time @ 66.45k That's 2 longs we are running now. Indeed, increasing the conviction, increasing my statement, and simply in alignment with our plan and goal, of running a trade into 70k to make money. Peak times, for me to go long.e in our golden zone, coming off the htf silver pocket, a clean 5D OHLC setup and bound to the 70k magnet, and, to top it off, most of twitter (X) was peak posting how they were "still short" etc, loud and proud Yesterday, exactly into the low. For me, lows are not to farm bearish engagement. They are to take longs. And so, it was indeed a time we took more, longs. Peak times, in fact, to go long. Hope to set long risk free soon, it would require a green Friday. But we had a green Monday, and Friday often mirrors Monday in terms of colour during tail end FOMC reversal weeks.

Ironic how quickly many influencers shift their thoughts Today from ultra bearish to ultra bullish after I reposted my bottom call made months ago Yesterday, all while we only moved up 4%. Most stances truly are as reliable as a paper plane entering the storm.

$BTC longs 67k now. ✅We're up and running Alright! Nice reaction so far off our long entry we took Yesterday in live time @ 66.45k That's 2 longs we are running now. Indeed, increasing the conviction, increasing my statement, and simply in alignment with our plan and goal, of running a trade into 70k to make money. Peak times, for me to go long.e in our golden zone, coming off the htf silver pocket, a clean 5D OHLC setup and bound to the 70k magnet, and, to top it off, most of twitter (X) was peak posting how they were "still short" etc, loud and proud Yesterday, exactly into the low. For me, lows are not to farm bearish engagement. They are to take longs. And so, it was indeed a time we took more, longs. Peak times, in fact, to go long. Hope to set long risk free soon, it would require a green Friday. But we had a green Monday, and Friday often mirrors Monday in terms of colour during tail end FOMC reversal weeks.

$BTC 67.7k ✅ They call it voodoo. We call it years of practice, collecting secrets, and execution. To showcase a one sided stance. Not calling for two directions and quoting back whichever one worked in hindsight. Instead, this is all called in advance and in live time. Again, and again, and again. Enjoy.

$BTC longs TP high, long back low ♻️ Alright, nice rejection off our TP again You already know the drill. Almost every single one of my TP's reject. However, almost always for another internal pullback. I.e., no new lows, 70k is next. So the capital we take out, can be levered into another long. That's the essence of trading. And that's exactly what I did. Long from 66.45k. The very live price as we speak. Still holding the other longs towards 70k, and looking to carry a second long into it, with the aim to secure 2 and 3 wins in a row.

$BTC longs Our take profit point rejected ✅, and limit orders hit as well ✅ Entry improved. Alright! Nice move down from point of rejection and the point we took profits. Indeed, 67.2k acting as the level of resistance. At the same time, we also said to set to add that portion we took out as profits, back in at 66.2k so we kept limit orders there as the weekend closes. Well, that is exactly what happened. We rejected 67.2k, and hit 66.2k. Had some questions and doubt of "why I TP so early, why TP at 67k, that's just too soon the market barely moved". Aside from my own explanation back then of how a move of 1100 dollars is a lot during the weekend, I think the market answered that for me now too, thank you very much. I also had some questions about how my chart was two hours old. That's an error on my side as I had a gap of no internet for a moment and for some reason it seemed price didn't move after typing the post further but it did, I apologize. Regardless, price retested my TP point multiple times before hitting our limit order so you had multiple chances to copy me. Shouldn't happen again, but for future reference, that is typically the case btw because the levels I trade are institutional and over 90% of the time, they retest since institutions need time to load up, true even in the weekends. So all in all, quite happy with the long. Entered at a good time, TP'd at a good time, and added it back in at a good time. That's my job for the weekend done, and that sets us up for a good start of the week if this were to move up, as Sunday likely closes above our entry, which allows us to pivot off the weekly open in case the trade goes south. It also gives us the option to double down in case we dig deeper into our golden zone. All opportunity I likely grab, because I believe this market goes back up, and the bears calling for sub 50k are wrong. They are doing nothing but engagement farming of what the masses want to hear. After all, price is down so why talk about "the bear market" now all of a sudden, and not while we were at 73k? ➡️Engagement farming Just my 2 cents.

Current peptide stack Reta 6 mg ( 3mg x2 per week) The bread and butter Tesamorelin 5 mg ( 1mg x5 per week) The additive NAD+ / 5amino1mq / MOTS-C 5mg ( 1mg x5 per week) Good energy, great rest, great recovery Selank 5mg ( 1mg x5 per week) Clarity, focus, not intense like Semax Also included: Test Cyp 200 mg per week ( 100 mg x2 per week) Soon adding: BPC-157 2-4 mg ( will return here for my shoulders on a 12 week cycle) TB -500 1 mg (help out the goat BPC) CJC/IPA to replace Tesa (learning dosages)

$BTC 71.5k target rejected. ✅ And rejection almost done now too ✅Longed again Alright, last post we had 71.5k hit, high area of liquidity, so price retraces strongly performing an internal pullback, you already know the drill with my targets and what it usually does to price. But now that most of the market is retraced IMO and we reach local confluence, that retracement is nearly done IMO. As you know, we didn't get to ride that long Yesterday. But if you are still in it like many of you, I would personally do nothing, and expect next target (72k), and TP more there. If you are not long, I would get interested in taking another long here to ride the second wave up, and that is exactly what I did. Can we head slightly lower? Yes. But we are close enough to weekly open and Monday's low, also tapping into the local POI, that's another good RR trade to take higher again towards Monday high. Local POI taps for internal pullbacks are highly sensitive in most cases which is why it only briefly tapped 68.8k here so far and why internal pullbacks are hard to compound longs on. Another reason why we always aim to long the bottom itself, before the move (such as Yesterday), not after waiting for structure shifts or internal pullbacks. But you all know I fumbled Yesterday's long, so I have no choice. And I believe our next target (72k, 71.9k to be more exact) is next, it's still part of the plan. And because I didn't have the long from lower, I am long for it from here.

$BTC 71.5k target rejected. ✅ And rejection almost done now too ✅Longed again Alright, last post we had 71.5k hit, high area of liquidity, so price retraces strongly performing an internal pullback, you already know the drill with my targets and what it usually does to price. But now that most of the market is retraced IMO and we reach local confluence, that retracement is nearly done IMO. As you know, we didn't get to ride that long Yesterday. But if you are still in it like many of you, I would personally do nothing, and expect next target (72k), and TP more there. If you are not long, I would get interested in taking another long here to ride the second wave up, and that is exactly what I did. Can we head slightly lower? Yes. But we are close enough to weekly open and Monday's low, also tapping into the local POI, that's another good RR trade to take higher again towards Monday high. Local POI taps for internal pullbacks are highly sensitive in most cases which is why it only briefly tapped 68.8k here so far and why internal pullbacks are hard to compound longs on. Another reason why we always aim to long the bottom itself, before the move (such as Yesterday), not after waiting for structure shifts or internal pullbacks. But you all know I fumbled Yesterday's long, so I have no choice. And I believe our next target (72k, 71.9k to be more exact) is next, it's still part of the plan. And because I didn't have the long from lower, I am long for it from here.

$BTC longs Still believing in 71.5k. Going to add more. Not yet, but if weekend lows get taken out. Alright bitcoin did not follow our plan of Yesterday. instead of holding 70.7k, it fell through and price retraced to entry and beyond. We were looking good, trade was up 1400 points, but now its 1000 points below entry. Bit of an unfortunate chain of events, with weekend announcement taking the trade down, also creating valid weekend lows. That puts the trade in a tricky spot at the moment because I still believe 71.5k is coming, but post FOMC reversal downside momentum is carrying on now just a bit longer. My actions Given the separation of two execution scenarios; the first one being my typical strategy - set it risk free into 71k, after we were up 1400 points (A), and the second one being the execution I went for myself exceptionally (holding without TP at 71k) since my size on this long was very small (B). So if you set it risk free (A), and followed my typical approach, then you would be flat now. In this case, I would not enter anything new, wait for the weekend lows to be taken out before entering again targeting 71.5k. If price just runs from here to 71.5k, then that's a nice short towards weekend lows and our long awaited 65k area where I deem the FOMC reversal over by now. If you are still in the trade like me (B), I think for this trade, it's okay to add more for once especially if you went small like me, turning this trade into a proper sized one given we have clarity. Not going to add here though personally, but getting an as good entry as possible, which is below the weekend lows. Not setting limits either as Monday is coming so ideally we see a down trending Monday for a bit, giving a chance to enter a bit below weekend lows. If price runs from here to 71.5k, then it still pays on the open trade, albeit for a smaller pay. But then weekend lows are still untouched which gives more confidence in our short idea from 71.5k+, the area we have been waiting for to short for a while, to work out, offering us a second trade. That sums up why I believe it's a good idea to hold on. Using strategic positioning to manage the trade. Not an orthodox strategy, but the fact we had an event on the weekend allows ourselves to do that because this amount of weekend liquidity is very typical to be run both ways, i.e. clear out weekend lows, and run 71.5k target. Holding a trade in between is opportune to take it towards a win, or even two wins.

$BTC longs POI reached, weekend lows taken out✅added long here Alright, price headed down to our compound long area of interest. As promised, this is where I would look to add longs. Without wasting your time reading this post, that is exactly what I did, with order flow doing what is to be expected on a Monday: hold walls, increase spread on perps/spot and slowly positioning to fill CME gap and IMO also our long target. Mind you that it is still Monday, so we might have to hold for another day. But that's ok. If we tend to trend down, then I will get concerned and exit the trade and take a loss for some deeper re-evaluation. For now, the same was I was confident we would head a bit lower, I am now also equally confident in a significant push up.

$BTC longs Still believing in 71.5k. Going to add more. Not yet, but if weekend lows get taken out. Alright bitcoin did not follow our plan of Yesterday. instead of holding 70.7k, it fell through and price retraced to entry and beyond. We were looking good, trade was up 1400 points, but now its 1000 points below entry. Bit of an unfortunate chain of events, with weekend announcement taking the trade down, also creating valid weekend lows. That puts the trade in a tricky spot at the moment because I still believe 71.5k is coming, but post FOMC reversal downside momentum is carrying on now just a bit longer. My actions Given the separation of two execution scenarios; the first one being my typical strategy - set it risk free into 71k, after we were up 1400 points (A), and the second one being the execution I went for myself exceptionally (holding without TP at 71k) since my size on this long was very small (B). So if you set it risk free (A), and followed my typical approach, then you would be flat now. In this case, I would not enter anything new, wait for the weekend lows to be taken out before entering again targeting 71.5k. If price just runs from here to 71.5k, then that's a nice short towards weekend lows and our long awaited 65k area where I deem the FOMC reversal over by now. If you are still in the trade like me (B), I think for this trade, it's okay to add more for once especially if you went small like me, turning this trade into a proper sized one given we have clarity. Not going to add here though personally, but getting an as good entry as possible, which is below the weekend lows. Not setting limits either as Monday is coming so ideally we see a down trending Monday for a bit, giving a chance to enter a bit below weekend lows. If price runs from here to 71.5k, then it still pays on the open trade, albeit for a smaller pay. But then weekend lows are still untouched which gives more confidence in our short idea from 71.5k+, the area we have been waiting for to short for a while, to work out, offering us a second trade. That sums up why I believe it's a good idea to hold on. Using strategic positioning to manage the trade. Not an orthodox strategy, but the fact we had an event on the weekend allows ourselves to do that because this amount of weekend liquidity is very typical to be run both ways, i.e. clear out weekend lows, and run 71.5k target. Holding a trade in between is opportune to take it towards a win, or even two wins.

$BTC longs We're up and running ✅Set my limits at 71.5k Alright, nice push up so far off the entry on the longs we took today. Market now backing up my claim of wanting to see shorts squeezed as they were just too crowded into the sub 69k lows and our area of confluence. Already seeing them exit now slowly but surely. As per plan, I'm slowly looking to TP these longs in alignment. So I've set my limits to take off more than half (60%) of the position at 71.5k. Notice that point is further than my typical first trim. That's simply because I'm looking to TP the trade aggressively, locking in the win after 1 target. So partialing before isn't really worth it. So that is indeed taking on a bit more initial risk. But position size on this one is smaller than usual, so it's all aligned. If you don't have that type of risk appetite, there's nothing stopping you to trim earlier of course. In the end, I'm not telling you what to do. I'm just sharing whenever I get and get out for your entertainment and education, showing you what it's like to go from analysis, to trade idea, to actually taking trades, making money in the process.

$BTC - Bringing back the series Find the POI Alright, it has been forever since we last posted about this series. While we wait for our short to move in our favor further, here is something to think about. This is part of the series where I form a question to you describing a very important concept, to help you understand my edge slowly but surely, one piece of the puzzle at a time. I get a lot of questions about POI's, how I find my POI's, how to identify them. Etc. etc. The answer is extensive, but the fundamentals are simple. So I'll start explaining by putting your mind to work. That way, you will remember the answer a lot better. So here is the question: On the chart is a downwards price leg. You are looking to continue to trade the trend. And let's assume you have a crystal ball, which tells you that indeed, the low of the range will be visited before the high, i.e. the downtrend continues. But the first caveat is: you only have 1 chance to short and you can only choose 1 POI. And the second caveat is: missing the short also counts as losing (so you can't choose POI 1, just to play it safe, think of it as opportunity cost). In other words, there is only 1 right answer. And so the question goes: "Which POI would you choose to short, and why?" Post your answer below, along with your reasoning. Best two comments will be reposted.