New El Niño forecast just dropped… and it’s a whopper! Maybe the strongest on record. For real! The European model seasonal forecast just released and it shows record Aug-Oct tropical Pacific sea surface temperature warmth at 2-3°C above normal (~ +5°F) in the central-east Pacific. The record for Aug-Oct is +2.2°C in 2015. Euro hints we surpass this (3.4 region). So what does this mean for #Florida and the South? First, good news: look at the Atlantic, it’s cool-ish relatively speaking. “Relative” matters big time in weather. Odds are this means a pretty quiet hurricane season overall and a lower likelihood of US landfalls. 2nd: next fall and winter may be Very active with rounds of severe weather, tornadoes and heavy rain/ flooding due to an invigorated subtropical jet stream. Central Florida’s largest tornadoes happen in El Niños (1966 and 1998 for example). Lastly, El Niño takes warm water stored deeper in the oceans, brings it to the surface and releases it into Earth’s atmosphere. This gives a big jolt to Global average surface temperatures. 2027 will be the warmest year on record for Earth in the history of modern humans, but even 2026 now has a chance of eclipsing that record by December. #elnino
