Macrotool

tldr: not running out of oil and inventories are much higher than pre shale era. i'm no oil expert but maybe this is why you aren't seeing the 200+ price the oil experts were wrong about

I repeat, the bubble is in the "e" not the "p" in today's PE ratios. The hucksters and talking heads will, as always, fail to realize until it's too late. But it's a very simple set up. Hyperscalers give OpenAI/Anthropic cash to pay for hyperscaler computing capacity. That cash then circles right back around into the "earnings" of the hyperscalers. Meanwhile, free cash flow for the group has officially gone negative and they're raising record amounts of debt (on and off balance sheet) to plug the gaping holes in their financial statements. So yes, please keep telling me about how $META $AMZN $GOOG and $MSFT are "cheap" on PE ratios where the E is a total mirage. Let us know how it ends (hint: not well, bob!)

We have only just entered the early innings.

Hormuz is being modeled by consensus as an oil shock. It is not. It is an input layer reset of the global manufacturing economy. The crude price move is the loudest signal but not the most consequential. The most consequential transmission is the slow repricing of the chemical, metal, and specialty input layer that sits underneath every physical product made on Earth. Each cascade has its own time signature. Oil moves in days. Fertilizer in weeks. Specialty chemicals in months. Capital goods and consumer durables in quarters. Sovereign wealth flows and reinsurance capital in years. So the impact rolls through markets in waves rather than a single shock. This is what makes it harder to model than a typical commodity event.