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Valor Analytics
7.5K posts
Valor Analytics
@otcengine
#natgas #wti options analytics platform and reports for traders https://t.co/gwL2u4MXL5 Email [email protected]
USA 参加日 Nisan 2012
1K フォロー中3.9K フォロワー
@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy When Waha pays you to take gas while Asia pays a premium, the story isn't supply. It's logistics. Export capacity is the constraint.
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Just a hot mess these days when it comes to global gas pricing. Pipeline constraints on taking West Texas gas to the US Gulf Coast, tapped out US LNG export capacity, and the loss of Russian pipeline and Qatari LNG exports has created extreme price differences. @ColumbiaUEnergy
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@GringoInvesting @Cornfed21 Back of NG curve is so cheap, but it remains dead money and people don't have VaR to trade it
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@Cornfed21 @otcengine Because people were expecting a global LNG glut that would lead to a lower utilization of LNG facilities in 2028.
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A little birdie tells me #natgas prices will be $5.50 by December
Rome Duta@FibChartsPro
🚨 Iran just smoked Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG — world’s biggest gas hub. Fires, damage, full chaos. If offline 3 months? U.S. is the only swing supply left. Henry Hub could double. $3.20 today → $6–$8. #natgas
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@firstenercast Everyone keeps thinking. It is short term. Was supposed to be one weekend, now it's been 3 weeks
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@AgWxMan1 Market does funny things. Most bullish setup, then El Nino sneaks up on us
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@otcengine Next winter will suck...trust me. Super El Nino extremely bear N USA (Chicago to NYC). Very wet across the southern USA.
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The question is not how much you can export and that is known and has a maximum
The question for winter contracts is if we have to curtail LNG, because of local demand, what is the price at which LNG DOESN't exported
The price of curtailing LNG keeps going higher with Qatar news and TTF going higher etc.
Hence, the bid in Jan Henry Hub contract on LNG news
Front just gets rolled up because of the winter bid
#natgas #oott
YYZ-RUSH@AgWxMan1
@otcengine can only export X amount from USA.
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@HerbPetry People always normalize things back. Traders had to stop out of Jan/Mar26 longs at 50 cents. Wild. Market does funny things.
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totally agree, but this winter that price was just a speed bump. That's also the price on the coldest days of winter, a named winter storm with 37 to 45 hdds. Look where prices went after what we saw in late Jan almost back to where we were before the cold. I do think upside risk is appropriate but the longer we stay at these prices the lower the base state might end up ( high prod, more switching)
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@HerbPetry This winter also showed, there isn't really a price for curtailment. We had $50 prints and LNG barely moved down
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@Cornfed21 I am not wrong. It is known. Price is $5.50~ for Jan27 contract which expires in Dec26
Here is a free resource to look at #natgas term structure on @CMEGroup
cmegroup.com/markets/energy…
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@otcengine not saying you're wrong, but still can't figure why this would raise US NG prices when our LNG plants are already maxxed out.
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@NGdaily1 @USAEnergyNatGas Yea not gonna happen for this winter, but it doesn't take a lot of time either if dire circumstances arise. e.g. Spain PM is motivated right now
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@otcengine @USAEnergyNatGas It would take them years to do this given the level of dysfunction
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@USAEnergyNatGas Europe is cooked for now, but I can see them going the Pakistan way and replace LNG with Chinese solar, wind, batteries and BYD
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This attack on Iran field and the retaliation on Qatar led to higher #natgas prices in afternoon. Trump now saying he knew nothing about it, but it shouldn't happen again
The White House@WhiteHouse
Statement from President Trump on South Pars Gas Field:
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#natgas call vol destroyed yesterday as buyers pull back on the war premium with many EoS estimates going over 4 Tcf
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Sorry to say, but #natgas weather can't be bullish on Mar 15
Bluegold Trader@bluegoldr
SUNDAY #NATGAS FUNDAMENTALS · Sunday’s 12z weather models are bullish vs Friday’s 12z results. · GFS is bullish (+14 bcf). · ECMWF is bullish(+19 bcf). · In absolute terms: Over the next 16 days (inc. today), GFS projects consumption to average 82.9 bcf/d (slightly above the norm). Over the next 15 days (inc. today), ECMWF projects consumption to average 82.1 bcf/d (slightly above the norm). · Dry gas production is currently estimated at 110.4 bcf/d (-0.2 bcf/d from Friday). · LNG feedgas flows are currently estimated at 18.9 bcf/d (-0.1 bcf/d from Friday). · The net impact on my near-term storage level outlook is bullish. Therefore, my storage level outlook will be revised lower. · On Friday, HH spot VWAP was $3.20 per MMBtu. · NYMEX natgas is likely to gap up once Globex opens
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