アザ二
15.3K posts



Can a 29-year-old start all over again?


looking back historically, most commodity export centralization models failed not because the idea was wrong, but because execution capacity was weak. in theory: - higher bargaining power - lower transfer pricing leakage - better FX retention - stronger fiscal capture sound good for the state? but in practice, commodity trading is an extremely relationship-, financing-, and logistics-driven business. once bureaucracy replaces market efficiency, spreads widen, execution slows, and private incentives deteriorate. china worked because state capacity was world-class. norway worked because governance was trusted. most others ended up with: - inefficiency - corruption/rent-seeking - capital flight - lower foreign confidence















