Shraddhs

Buddy - I live in Dubai and have a lot of people who work for me. Govt regulations are strict & improving everyday. Many of my friends are employers & their workers have increasing rights. Sunday is a holiday for almost everyone. Will there be cases of violation- of course. But I find this over-generalisation of modern slavery very crass.

I am talking about real life on the streets here in the UAE. I personally know and have spoken with 10s of workers. They earn only 1000/2000 dirhams a month. They work 13 to 14 hours every day seven days a week. Their employers take their passports away so they cannot leave, not always the cases of course and another issue that many are being told that if they try to leave they will be kicked out the country Just today someone posted in a group that his friend had his passport taken by the employer. When the friend went to the police the officers asked him to show proof that he had handed the passport to the employer. If you do a little research you will find so many similar cases especially among Indian and Pakistani workers. This is modern slavery no matter what anyone says. It can be proven very easily if you want to check. I really hope the UAE government will do more to stop this. But right now if we are honest this is still modern slavery. I have personally met many people who told me their horror stories here.

Im sorry if someone lied to you Slavery is illegal in the UAE and it has been since the inception of the country There is no slavery in the country and I find any accusation of such to be ignorant and misleading Stop spreading misinformation

Please just read about the legislative changes that UAE introduced in 2021 diluting the Kaffala system. No one’s passports can now be taken, many establishments require payment of salaries through Central Bank’s wage protection system & any exploitation complaints can directly be made to the police. Salaries have also increased and people often come from much poorer conditions in their home countries to make a better living. The govt is cognizant and steps are being taken in the right direction. While we have a right/duty to criticise unfair practices, with the UAE/Gulf countries, people find flaws without knowing, reading enough or listening to people who actually live there.

Yes, you are right. Officially, slavery is not allowed in the UAE and has been illegal since the country was founded. However, the reality for many migrant workers is very different. Their passports are often taken away. Many people are forced to live together in the same small room. They do very heavy work for only 1000 dirhams a month. They work 13 to 14 hours a day, seven days a week. There are many other serious problems as well. If you really care about people not being treated like slaves, the government should take much stronger action. This is happening on a huge scale. For some reason, it looks like the government is not doing enough to stop it.

@Kanthan2030 I think this is all psycho-ops or one off events.

Iran is allegedly charging up to $2 million per ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. And the payments are made in Chinese yuan. Internationalization of RMB at a small scale. If 100 ships pass over the next couple of weeks, it’s $200 million, so not a big amount.

@Jhunjhunuwala_ Did the government bring down prices when India was getting extremely discounted Russian oil in 23-24?

I was looking into India’s petrol price hikes in recent years and found that the last hike was in 2022. The government is absorbing all the shock.

@CRUDEOIL231 Sorry - the regional pipelines are about 40-50 percent of Hormuz flows.

I agree with your core point, but the Gulf hasn’t been caught off guard here. They’ve been preparing for a geographic shift in energy supply chains for years. A full bypass of Hormuz will take time, sure but the groundwork is already in place. And it’s not just about pipelines. 1) Diversifying production (and geography) Gulf players have quietly spread their bets across global energy markets. Take LNG - Golden Pass Terminal in Texas came online right when ~17% of Ras Laffan went offline… and it’s 70% owned by QatarEnergy. ADNOC has stakes in Rio Grande in Texas with long-term offtake locked in. Then you’ve got assets like Port Arthur, Catarus, etc. The bigger trend: Gulf capital moving deep into the US energy ecosystem - upstream (especially LNG), midstream, and even downstream demand like data centres. At the same time, sovereign wealth funds and NOCs are building positions across Africa and Asia - the Andaman basin being a good example. Even Motiva (owned by Aramco) lining up in Venezuela shows how far this diversification goes. 2) Alternative supply routes are already operational Saudi’s East-West pipeline is the big one - now pushing up to ~7 million bpd to the Red Sea, which is not far off Hormuz volumes for Saudi exports alone. Then you have: UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline (~1.5–1.8 mbpd) SUMED pipeline via Egypt (~2.5–3 mbpd capacity) That said, I agree that even combined, these routes only replace a fraction of Hormuz flows — realistically under ~30% of total throughput. However the mitigation of chokepoints has begun. 3) Storage as a strategic lever Gulf producers have also been investing heavily in storage - India, China, Southeast Asia - essentially placing barrels closer to demand centers. That reduces reliance on real-time shipping through chokepoints. Bottom line: This isn’t really about Iran. What you’re seeing is a long-term geopolitical hedge -against a world where major powers can disrupt energy flows, weaponise chokepoints, or reshape supply to suit their own strategic interests. Hormuz is just one risk. The Gulf is hedging against the system itself.

I think way too many ppl are delusional about this idea of letting Iran control the SoH, having the US pull out, and just letting Iran set up a toll booth. Where does Saudi’s power actually come from? It’s not just because they’re rich. Their entire influence comes from being the world’s only swing Producer. We need oil, and Saudi controls that market. If Iran takes over the SoH, they become the most powerful, one of a kind Global Swing Producer in history. If they don’t like the oil price? They can just "adjust" the traffic in a strait that handles ~20mb/d to swing prices however they want. If the UAE gets on Iran’s bad side? "No passage for UAE tankers." If Kuwait tries to build a bypass? "Fine, the SoH is closed starting today. Let’s see if you can finish that bypass—which takes years—without making a single dime." By letting Iran control that flow, the US is effectively making Iran the ultimate energy gatekeeper. The entire regional hegemony shifts to Iran. Saudi and the UAE lose everything. Think about it—if you were MBS, would you let this happen? Let’s say the US pulls out this week. The US started this mess, and now the GCC has to just sit there and watch their power handed over to Iran? Let me give you a reality check for Americans: Imagine Mexico now controls the North American continent. "Want to fly to the UK? Get Mexico’s permission. Want to import jet fuel from Asia? Pay Mexico a toll and take the route they tell you to. Did you dare to criticize Mexico? Now, no container ships can enter your waters. You can’t say a word against the great President of Mexico." It sounds like a fantasy, but that’s the reality for the GCC. If the US tries to run away? If I were the GCC, I wouldn’t let them leave. I’d grab them by the hair and drag them back to clean up the mess they made. I’ve said before that this is an existential issue for Iran and Israel. Well, Iranian control of the SoH is an existential issue for every other GCC nation. And the GCC has leverage. They have massive wealth invested in the West, huge U.S. asset holdings, decades of lobbying networks, and they are the biggest donors for Trump’s terms. And of course they have oil. Do you really think Brent would stay below $100/bbl if the GCC teamed up and cut just 3mb/d for six months? Even the most optimistic guy knows the answer is zero chance. They don't even need a fancy excuse: "Oh, since the US gave up on us and Iran owns the SoH, it's not safe. We have to cut production. Sorry!" Within months, the US would be begging to come back. It’s just pushing the Middle East into an even bigger pit of fire. Thanks for listening to my TED Talk :) #oott #iran

Look forward. My contribution (limited to oil) Hormuz disruption took ~20 mb/d off the table (though some flows are slowly resuming). Now look at what’s already being rerouted: Saudi East - West pipeline to Yanbu port on the Red Sea: ~7 mb/d UAE (Habshan - Fujairah): ~1 mb/d Iraq via Syria (Baniyas, if it scales): ~0.5 mb/d That’s roughly 9–10 mb/d clawed back without touching new supply. Can the rest of the world fill the gap? Realistic upside: US: +0.3 to 0.5 mb/d (at best, shale isn’t what it used to be) Guyana: +0.2 to 0.3 mb/d (the real bright spot) Russia: good potential if OPEC+ discipline loosens (am I underestimating) Nigeria: +0.1 to 0.2 mb/d (execution dependent) Algeria: ~0.05 mb/d (limited room) That's about 2 million more. Where are the other upsides? Are we looking at alternative energy sources as well?

Tomorrow, I am going to show that there is actually a path towards a fully recovered oil-flow in 4 weeks from now, even despite a situation where Trump doesn't really end the war, or where he leaves with solving the Strait. There is TOO much doom and gloom around in Oil markets

The first step in opening the Strait should be to re-instate the insurance. How is it that aviation insurance is still available with missiles & drones flying across the Middle East but Lloyd’s cancelled the maritime insurance at the first sign of trouble? Something is not adding up- it seems the US or someone wants to prolong the energy crisis & create a cause for escalation. There are plenty of options available - navies of 13 plus countries sit around the Indian Ocean & Gulf waters. It’s strange to believe that coordinated action will not restore the Hormuz traffic. Or maybe I am reading too much into it.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Seymour Hersh, the journalist who correctly predicted the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities and broke the Nord Stream story, says Trump's speech was a ground war announcement: "Trump was telling the world that the ground war is on as of today. Thousands of Navy SEALs and Army Rangers are either en route or soon will be to zones within striking range of the Strait of Hormuz." He says Trump could have 50,000 fighters ready to clear the Strait or dig out enriched uranium from tunnels under the nuclear sites. Hersh has one of the best track records in investigative journalism. He doesn't say things like this casually. If he's right, then Trump's speech wasn't about ending the war. It was about starting the next phase of it, one the public hasn't been told about yet. Source: Substack

To everyone I recommended buy Tawadul All Share Index (TASI) in Saudi Arabia in March 2026, I hope you are happy. #SaudiArabia #TASI #IranWar‌

@intolerant_mann @AJENews Could be…just that Venezuelan oil revival is too expensive a proposition for US companies- so I think we are going to see JVs with Gulf oil majors (e.g. ARAMCO, ADNOC) and investments by Gulf sovereign wealth funds. Stay tuned to these developments.

@AJENews He’s literally telling the arabs that he used them until he found a better option. Now he has ABANDONED them, they are on their own and he doesn’t care about their economy or security.

BREAKING: Trump says that they are working with Venezuela to get "massive amounts of oil and gas" and are now totally "independent of the Middle East" but are "happy to help".

Will this be like Iranian missiles reaching Dubai International Financial Centre, finding only empty buildings & doing even less damage? While Israel is fair game, Haifa Port is owned by India’s Adani Group. So while the Haifa city has been targeted along with industrial sites, the Haifa port infra has largely been untouched in last two years. Has that changed with this strike becoz I doubt Iran wants to alienate the nations & conglomerates which will be key to its re-building? Happy to be corrected.

Iranian state television says its missiles reached the port of Haifa minutes after Trump claimed Iran’s missile program had been ended.

Fair point. But till when is the question? India gave in to US pressure earlier & reduced buying Russian oil. Now they are buying at much higher prices. Currently the US govt has given ‘waiver’ on Russian sanctions to make sure oil prices stay lower, while Hormuz business continues. All the while, Ukraine drones are skirting on the edge of Russian hydrocarbon facilities. What happens if the US flexes its muscles again - 3 months down the line. And that is a key concern among Indian administration. Flows are accelerating now, will they make geopolitical sense 3 months down the line?

Don't confuse a 'War Premium' with a lack of leverage. 🎯 Russia needs the volume as much as India needs the supply. In a world of fragmenting alliances, a long-term contract is just a fancy way of saying 'we are stuck with each other.' Whether the discount is 20% or 2%, the structural win for India is the guaranteed energy flow while Europe gambles on the wind. My scanners show the flows are accelerating, not slowing down. Process > Politics. Always. 🛡️

🇮🇳Yesterday, Indian ports received the highest amount of daily Russian crude on record.

My boss who was ex-military & served in ME & Afghanistan gave me a very valuable tip once: ‘In geopolitics, today’s enemies are tomorrow’s assets.’ From Taliban to Al-Sharaa, this has been true. Will it be true for the future Iranian regime as well?

@KEIKANx @anasalhajji I don’t think India is locking in supply at discounted barrels. This time it will be all Russia’s way - war premiums, long term contracts & no dithering under US pressure.

Record daily Russian crude to Indian ports yesterday — this is a massive geopolitical + energy supply shift 🔥 India locking in discounted barrels at scale while the West watches? Smart diversification play that keeps global oil flows moving and pressures prices lower longer-term. For side-hustle traders and personal finance builders, this is exactly where AI tools become unfair advantage: I run real-time scanners on import data, tanker tracking, and correlation models to spot these flows before headlines hit and adjust energy positions in minutes — no more guessing on inflation or crude impact. Turns macro noise into consistent edges. @anasalhajji How long do you see this record pace continuing, and any read on what it does to near-term WTI/Brent?

This overwhelming obsession with Dubai is frankly getting a little exhausting on both sides. Is there a war going on?…YES. Are people adapting?…YES. Is the state of UAE doing the absolute best under the circumstances…HELL YES. Will there be temporary dips in consumption, population, capital and growth…YES. Will this scenario last - No one knows. So till we do, whoever wants to leave can leave, whoever wants to stay will stay.

As the Iran war grinds into a fifth week, the everything is fine narrative in Dubai has been looking a little stretched, writes @LionelRALaurent (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@spectatorindex Is there an echo on social media channels? How many times has the same news been breaking/circulated in the past 2 weeks with no source….

BREAKING: The UAE is 'preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force', according to Wall Street Journal report.

@jforjacob Why do you care so much? Whoever wants to stay will stay, and whoever wants to leave will go. There is no need to either put down or glorify Dubai - each person will decide based on their priorities.

Honest question for the Dubai lovers: How may other countries apart from the UAE and your home country have you spent more than 1 month living in? Just seems impossible to me than anyone who is well travelled would think it’s the best place to live

This was exactly what I was telling a client the other day. Ukraine has no independent capabilities outside of the NATO. So Ukraine defence agreement is a European/US access. At another level- It could also mean that Zelensky is being offered a carrot after Russian sanctions have been diluted.

Read between the lines. Ukraine does not have an independent defense industrial base that Saudi Arabia needs. Ukraine's defense capabilities right now are almost entirely a function of what NATO countries, primarily the US and Europe, have poured into it. The weapons Ukraine manufactures domestically, like drones and certain missile systems, are useful but they are not what Saudi Arabia is after in a strategic defense agreement. What Ukraine does have is relationships, technology transfer pipelines, and an entry point into European defense procurement networks that Saudi Arabia cannot easily access by going directly to, say, France or Germany. Because those deals come with political strings attached around human rights, Yemen, and so on. So when MBS signs a defense agreement with Ukraine, what he is actually doing in structural terms is opening a side door into the European and broader Western MIC without going through the US, and in effect, isolating it. That is the move. Like I have been saying. This Iran "war" is the recalibration door the US has opened for new contracts. But for others. Not for itself.