Simple S.

1.4K posts

Simple S.

Simple S.

@simplesimon1992

参加日 Haziran 2023
11 フォロー中29 フォロワー
Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@DiveBomb321 Potentially ... although US can easily moot an export ban on energy instead. If they rush into a massacre that is recorded on Iranian FPV drones & sent viral (much like Rus/Ukr footage), there's probably reasonably fair odds something happens to a member of the T Family on mland
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DiveBombTrading
DiveBombTrading@DiveBomb321·
@simplesimon1992 Yeah, but if the strait continues to stay this closed, I think there might be a rush. 😂🤷‍♂️
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DiveBombTrading
DiveBombTrading@DiveBomb321·
Trump's speech was a big nothing burger. They have nothing new and no magic solutions. I think there is a greater chance of boots on the ground this weekend.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@endless_frank Why would they QE & rate cut into an inflationary market? Are you retarded?
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@Jack_McClendon Hates looking like a loser? He's a multi, multi time bankrupt. Optics are irrelevant. In it for the $$$. Same as it ever was.
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Jack McClendon
Jack McClendon@Jack_McClendon·
Gotta hand it to the man. He really hates high oil prices. More than that though, he really, really hates looking like a loser.
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EndGame Macro
EndGame Macro@onechancefreedm·
Berkshire Is Prepared For Something Bigger Than A Dip Buffett is not saying nothing is wrong. He is saying this still is not real pain. That distinction matters because a market that is only 5% or 6% cheaper is not suddenly attractive to someone who has spent a lifetime waiting for true mispricing. He has seen actual repricings. The kind that crack confidence, force liquidations, and move assets from weak hands to strong ones. This, in his view, is not that. Here’s the real tell. Not the interview. The balance sheet. Berkshire entered 2026 with roughly $373.3 billion in cash and short term U.S. Treasuries, including about $321.4 billion in T-bills, and another $17 billion in bills was reportedly added in late March. Berkshire calls that dry powder. And since Berkshire still says it would rather own productive businesses than Treasuries, that pile is not a preference. It is a verdict. And the verdict is simple. Buffett still does not think the board has been reset. Greg Abel may now be CEO, but Buffett is still chairman, still around the capital allocation process, and still close enough to matter. So this is not a retired legend making casual observations from the sidelines. It is a man who has been positioning for a harsher environment for quite a while, quietly telling you this correction still has not produced the kind of terms Berkshire waits for. History helps here. Buffett does not build liquidity like this because he wants to feel comfortable. He builds it so Berkshire can be the one buyer with cash, credibility, and no financing problem when markets move from discomfort to distress. That was the playbook with Goldman and GE in 2008, and Bank of America in 2011. He waits for the moment when fear, valuation, and funding stress collide hard enough to create truly asymmetric opportunity. That is the signal. Not that everything is fine. Not that collapse is guaranteed. Just that this still is not the kind of dislocation that rewrites the board. And when one of the wisest investors of all time is telling you that in his usual understated way, ignoring him is not skepticism. It is complacency.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@Norseman1 Genuinely startled that you called 21/22 inflationary-bear so well, but have missed all the hallmarks of 26 inflationary-bear. And yes, this was a bear market rally as noted.
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DJ
DJ@doctorjamil·
@PeteHegseth @EndGameWW3 From “liberating” the people to blasting them “back to the Stone Age”. Yes, your objectives have always been clear and your execution (of 157 school girls) flawless.
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Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth@PeteHegseth·
Back to the Stone Age.
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Norseman Market Timing
Since 1946. ..only 5. We have slow rolled and now ST bullish divergences as we neared correction territory on $SPX. Chart per @IBDinvestors You are gonna have to tell me it’s different this time until this changes. Because as of right now. It’s not. Tops are a process and it’s way too premature to say the NYSE A-D Line is signaling a major top and thus we are experiencing a bear rally. Bullish divergence with the $SPX at the high and now the swing low.
Norseman Market Timing tweet media
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@DiveBomb321 Or Trump operates at the behest of large financial donors, who slip him soundbites at convenient supply / demand zones ...
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DiveBombTrading
DiveBombTrading@DiveBomb321·
Remember Trump controls the market most of the time. It will tend to do what he wants because he is blackmailing or coercing everyone in one way or another. So either fall in line and make money or be subject to consequences.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@CryptoBurger0 @Norseman1 @agtrader Yes crypto good leading indicator (as it was in 2021 as well). And of course a lot of the memes rolling over in autumn 2025 too (OKLO, IONQ and the like). And then we had the exhaustion sell in DXY in January, the multi-month consolidation in WTI before breakout etc.
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Norseman Market Timing
I cannot believe how many people are calling this a Bear Market Rally.
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Mike Remmerde
Mike Remmerde@MikeRemmerde·
@Norseman1 @IBDinvestors The axiom that really sticks with me right here is “the market doesn’t give you long to sell the top.” I think it’s near impossible for a major market top to look like the flattish multi-month roll over we had here.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@CryptoBurger0 @Norseman1 @agtrader I see. Yes, end-of-quarter rally on outsized -7.5% March decline, which has simply served to re-test lower end of 6 month distribution range SPX was in since September 2025, seems to have fooled ppl into believing this was simply a correction. H/e it's an Inflationary bear.
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Crypto Burger
Crypto Burger@CryptoBurger0·
@simplesimon1992 @Norseman1 @agtrader Im not disagreeing btw, I moved to cash in Jan. However, my point is that aggressive bear market rallies happen in a way to psychologically 'trick' the masses that the market may be turning bullish and that it may just be a correction not a bear market I think we are in a bear
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@stonkmane69 @Norseman1 SPX down 7.5% in March, 5% YTD from high. WTI blasted out, DXY significant trend change, PPI double expected rate prior to energy blow out, employment reasonably holding up, projected rate cuts cancelled, breakdown from 6 month distribution range.. "Obviously not a bear market"
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stonk mane
stonk mane@stonkmane69·
@Norseman1 obviously not a bear market, but what leads you to believe we make a higher high here?
stonk mane tweet media
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Norseman Market Timing
@agtrader NYSE A-D Line ATH (multi-decade crash immunity) and ST bullish divergence on it now at only -9.9%. Premature at best.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@markymark740338 @BurggrabenH Jesus christ, you can't even spell the difference between "you're" and "your". You are one of those 67% of Trump voters without a secondary college education, aren't you? Do you even have a high school education? This is depraved.
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Alexander Stahel 🌻
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH·
Hegseth is an exceptional lightweight but his simplicity has advantages: he tells you what’s coming as the White House‘s misconceptions are our reality, that being l-term disruption of the Strait as Trump‘s domestic political deadline arrived. Don’t ignore it.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar

Hegseth: "The president was clear this morning in his Truth that there are countries around the world who ought to be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. Last time I checked there was supposed to be a big bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that."

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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@AlessioTMAD There is no proving you wrong, as this is clearly how the market operates.
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Simple S.
Simple S.@simplesimon1992·
@realpeteyb123 67% of Trump's voting base are without a college degree. If you and your friends voted for Trump, then you are statistically likely to be without an education, or to be a special sort of idiot-outlier amongst those who are educated.
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